The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game.

Tampa BayRank@ClevelandRank
-3Spread3
22.75Implied Total19.75
18.327Points/Gm2410
186Points All./Gm26.930
66.94Plays/Gm66.85
61.912Opp. Plays/Gm60.35
5.124Off. Yards/Play5.710
58Def. Yards/Play5.825
33.93%32Rush%47.31%8
66.07%1Pass%52.69%25
41.68%15Opp. Rush %46.27%28
58.32%18Opp. Pass %53.73%5
  • Cleveland games are 69.5 points over the game total this season, the most in the league.
  • The Browns have allowed opponents to score on a league-high 46.4% of drives. 
  • The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to score on 28.8% of their drives, second in the league.
  • 40.5% of the drives against Tampa Bay have failed to gain a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Browns have allowed a league-worst -32.2 expected points added via rushing on running back carries. The next closest team (Chargers) is at -17.7 EPA allowed rushing on those carries.
  • 30.1% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Just 27.2% of the fantasy points allowed by the Buccaneers have been scored by running backs, the lowest rate in the league.
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Quarterback

Tom Brady: Brady comes out of the bye with just two QB1 scoring weeks over his opening 10 games, with the last one coming back in Week 5. Brady has also only finished lower than QB17 just once over his past eight games, so the floor has been usable in 2QB formats. 

Prior to the bye, Brady threw for a season-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt while completing a season-high 75.9% of his passes. The fantasy points didn’t fully come together, but Brady played his best game of the season. 

A big part of things was the Bucs finally having a strong play-action game. Brady used play-action on 34.6% of his dropbacks in Germany after a 16.2% rate prior. With the use of play action, Brady was 9-of-10 for 121 yards. It is not a surprise the Bucs went with play-action more since their staff believes that you have to run well to incorporate it. Tampa was having its most successful day since Week 1 on the ground, which isn’t going to alleviate that thought process.

The good news is that they should run the ball well against the Browns based on everyone running against them. If the Bucs can #establishIt again here, Cleveland is allowing 9.7 yards per pass attempt against play-action passes (29th). 

Brady has shown to be a better high-end QB2 play than a locked-in QB1 while this matchup and the Tampa Bay team total do not suggest going wild here. The Browns also have had some fortune in slowing down some solid fantasy options, limiting Justin Herbert (QB17), Lamar Jackson (QB20), Joe Burrow (QB22), and Josh Allen (QB18) to QB2 scoring weeks over their past seven games.

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