Falcons vs. Bucs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Falcons and Bucs.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield had the best season of his career in 2024, setting career marks in completions (407), attempts (570), completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), and touchdowns (41).

He had a career-high touchdown rate of 7.2%.

His previous career high was 5.6%, which came in 2018, his first year in the league.

His touchdown rate in his first season with Tampa Bay was 4.9%.

He completed a league-high 73.1% of his red zone throws (the league rate was 57.9%).

37.2% of Mayfield’s red zone passes were touchdowns, which was second in the league last year to Lamar Jackson.

That was also the highest rate of Mayfield’s career, who had a 26.3% career rate entering last season.

His 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the best of his career.

On top of that, Mayfield also set a career high with 55.8 rushing points.

His previous high was 32.1 in 2019.

Mayfield rushed for 378 yards, over 200 more than in any previous season.

I have consistently laid out expectations this summer that we should anticipate regression for Mayfield in several areas this season.

In his first (and only) season with Liam Coen, there was a more significant emphasis on the short passing game.

After averaging 8.6 air yards per throw in 2023, Mayfield averaged 7.0 air yards per pass last season.

His average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

That area is where there was a divide with Mayfield as a passer last year.

When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

With Coen taking the head coaching job in Jacksonville, Mayfield will again be working with a new offensive coordinator.

This will be the ninth different coordinator Mayfield has had in the NFL.

He has bounced around a bit, but only once in his career has Mayfield had the same play caller in back-to-back seasons in the NFL.

New coordinator Josh Grizzard was with Tampa Bay last season as the passing game coordinator, so the hope is that he still incorporates the components that led to success last year.

That said, Grizzard has emphasized wanting to throw the ball more downfield this season and have less reliance on yards after the catch.

The Bucs may not have Tristan Wirfs to open the season, as he is working his way back from a knee injury he suffered in July.

Losing Wirfs is a negative for the offense, but Tampa Bay did manage some production without him a year ago.

On 121 plays with Wirfs off the field in 2024, the Bucs averaged 5.3 yards per play with a 48.6% success rate.

With him on the field, they averaged 6.3 yards per play with a 46.3% success rate.

Pairing the coordinator change and the short-term absences of Wirfs, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and potentially Cade Otton, we have a clean path to push the naturally expected regression for Mayfield.

That said, this is a good opening spot for him to still deliver as a QB1 before the schedule gets tougher.

He still has Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka, while the offense has Bucky Irving.

There are numerous moving parts on the Tampa Bay offense and the Atlanta defense.

Atlanta had a wealth of issues defensively in 2024.

They ranked 31st in the NFL in pressure rate (28% of dropbacks), 31st in passing touchdown rate allowed (5.9%), and allowed a league-high 69.9% completion rate.

In an effort to add more pass rush this offseason, the team used first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce, and they signed veteran Leonard Floyd.

The team fired defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake and brought in Jeff Ulbrich.

Ulbrich didn’t fare too well last year.

After Robert Saleh was fired in New York, the Jets' defense fell apart with Ulbrich taking over as interim head coach.

From the point Ulbrich took over, the Jets were 29th defensively in success rate (55.8%), 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3), and allowed opponents to score on 50.4% of their possessions (31st).

Atlanta is also expected to start two rookies in their secondary, with third-round safety Xavier Watts and fourth-round nickelback Billy Bowman.

Michael Penix: Atlanta took on some scrutiny for selecting Penix with the No. 8 pick in last year’s draft after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency.

But the move proved shrewd, as Cousins flatlined to close the season, setting up Penix to get his feet wet as a rookie and take over as the franchise's future.

Penix started the final three games of the 2024 season.

Atlanta went 1-2 in those starts, but both losses came in overtime.

Penix was a mixed bag in his limited sample, completing 58% of his passes (29th) with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

He ended those weeks as QB30, QB25, and QB7 for fantasy.

However, he did throw for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, which was 11th over those three weeks.

Penix pushed the ball down the field over his initial sample in the league, averaging a league-high 10.2 air yards per pass attempt over that span.

47% of his throws were 10 yards or more downfield, and 18% were 20 yards or more downfield, the league's highest rates over the season's final three weeks.

Before the change, Cousins was averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt (20th), throwing 35.1% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield (11th) and 9.7% of those attempts 20 or more yards downfield (24th).

Penix also pushed the ball outside the numbers.

49.4% of his passes were outside the numbers (third from Week 16 to Week 18).

Penix has the keys to this offense heading into 2025.

There is some Jameis Winston-esque potential as Atlanta could find themselves in a plethora of shootouts due to their defense and schedule.

Tampa Bay has a questionable pass rush entering the season, so we should expect Todd Bowles to remain aggressive and attempt to manufacture pressure.

The Bucs blitzed on 36.9% of opponent dropbacks in 2024, which was second in the league.

When Penix was blitzed over his small sample, he completed 58.1% of his passes (31st among quarterbacks with 100-plus attempts) for just 6.9 Y/A (24th) and 0 touchdowns.

The Falcons will also be missing their blindside tackle here.

Right tackle Kaleb McGary is out for the season with a knee injury.

To compound matters, swing tackle Storm Norton is also expected to miss the front of the season.

Raheem Morris suggested that Elijah Wilkinson, Jack Nelson, and Brandon Parker are potential starters for the opening of the year, but Wilkinson is the favorite.

There is some shootout potential here as these teams played two fun fantasy games in 2024, but with all of the moving parts here and Penix’s small sample facing pressure last season, he is a volatile QB2.

Running Back

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