The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Panthers and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 23.4 | 16 | Points/Gm | 18.9 | 28 |
| 25.3 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 22.6 | 14 |
| 62.7 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 18 |
| 60.3 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 7 |
| 5 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 25 |
| 5.8 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 25 |
| 43.39% | 18 | Rush% | 46.85% | 8 |
| 56.61% | 15 | Pass% | 53.15% | 25 |
| 39.34% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 44.71% | 21 |
| 60.66% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 55.29% | 12 |
- Carolina has led for 20.7% of their offensive snaps, 27th in the league and the lowest rate of any team .500 or better.
- Tampa Bay has led for 30.9% of its offensive snaps, 20th in the league and the 2nd-lowest rate among teams with a .500 or better record.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 2.68 points per drive over their past six games (29th), down from 1.91 per drive prior (8th).
- Over their past six games, Tampa Bay is 30th in EPA as a pass defense (-44.0), down from 9th (-0.75) prior.
- Tampa Bay has a 39.2% success rate on passing plays, 29th in the league.
- Over their past five games, Carolina has a 31.3% success rate on rushing plays (31st), down from 45% prior (7th).
- The Panthers have gained 10 or more yards on 16.9% of their plays, ahead of only the Browns (15.4%).
- Since Week 7, the Panthers have converted a league-low 40% (8 of 20) ot their red zone trips into touchdowns.
- Tampa Bay has allowed opponents to convert 72.2% (26 of 36) of red zone trips into touchdowns (30th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield was not efficient on Thursday night, but we did see a spike in volume, allowing him more leeway to create fantasy points.
He ended the week as the QB14 (19.2 points).
That was his fourth game in a row as a QB2 scorer, but it was a high-scoring week, and his output was his best fantasy score since Week 10.
Mayfield completed 55.9% of his passes (19 of 34) against the Falcons for 277 yards (8.1 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and an interception.
That was the fourth game over his past five in which Mayfield has completed fewer than 60% of his passes.
The trade-off is that with a full complement of wide receivers available, the Bucs threw the ball more, and Mayfield threw it downfield more.
His 10.6 air yards per attempt were a season high.
52.9% of Mayfield’s throws were 10 or more yards downfield, his highest rate this season.
32.4% were 15 or more yards downfield, his highest rate since Week 1.
Tampa Bay threw the ball 14% over expectations, their highest rate in a game this season.
That considers the game script, but the other element here is that the Tampa Bay pass defense is a mess right now, which can push a healthy version of this offense.
He still has efficiency warts, but all of those signals make Mayfield a better-looking fantasy option than he has been since the opening of the season.
Mayfield is a boom-or-bust option on the QB1/QB2 line.
Carolina is a boom-or-bust pass defense.
We have seen them allow strong games to Tyler Shough (18.1 and 19.0 points) but also limit Brock Purdy (7.3 points) and Matthew Stafford (11.6 points) over the past five weeks.
They are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt (25th) but have allowed a 3.9% touchdown rate (10th) to keep their production allowed in check.
Paired with facing 30.8 attempts per game (11th), they allow 12.2 passing points per game (10th).
Bryce Young: Young closed last week as the QB19 (15.4 points), completing 15 of 24 passes (62.5%) for 163 yards (6.8 Y/A) with a touchdown.
He added a season-high 49 rushing yards.
Young has been a viable QB2 with upside over the past month, but you really have to force Carolina to get into a dropback passing game.
This running game has mainly been subpar over the last five weeks, but Carolina will stick with an inefficient run game unless the score gets away from them.
Carolina running backs rushed 24 times for 78 yards (3.3 YPC) with a 33.3% success rate on Sunday, but the Panthers threw the ball 3.8% below expectations.
That is how you let a team hang around, lose a 10-point lead, and blow a shot at taking control of your playoff chances.
For the season, Carolina has thrown the ball 5.2% below expectations, ahead of only the Jets (-5.5%).
The one recent game in which Carolina went pass-heavy was against San Francisco (12.9% pass rate over expectation), and the results may have scared Canales from ever pushing the envelope again.
We believe Dave Canales will push back and this game could have more upside than implied, leaving Young as a volatile QB2.
The way to attack Tampa Bay right now is via the passing game.
Over their past six games, the Bucs have allowed a 66% completion rate (26th), 8.4 Y/A (28th), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (29th).
The Bucs just allowed a QB3 scoring week to Kirk Cousins (26.9 points).
They have allowed at least 18 fantasy points to six consecutive starting quarterbacks and five straight QB1 scoring weeks.
Even with Jamel Dean returning, this secondary has many moving parts.
Zyon McCollum was placed on injured reserve this week.
McCollum has not been great this season, but that is another domino that elevates another backup in the secondary.
Running Back
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More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ Seahawks | Thursday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Saturday -- 5 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bears | Saturday -- 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Texans | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Ravens | Sunday Night Football |
| 49ers @ Colts | Monday Night Football |
