Rams vs. Bucs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 12

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Rams and Bucs on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (TRUST): Stafford had his worst outing of the year on Sunday, posting season lows in completion rate (53.6%), passing yards (130), and yards per pass attempt (4.6).

He threw 2 touchdowns to do what he could to salvage his day.

He still finished the week as the QB15 (13.2 points) despite a low-scoring week across the league.

When I wrote up last week’s Rams and Seahawks, we talked about how they were so similar on offense, and it was a mirror match in a sense.

If you already read my writeup on Sam Darnold this week, you will not be surprised by an overlap here, because the Seahawks did precisely what the Rams did to them to combat their offense.

When the Rams went to heavy personnel, the Seahawks ignored it and played a bunch of defensive backs.

Stafford faced six or more defensive backs on 31.6% of his early-down dropbacks, by far the highest rate of the season.

His season-long rate is 5.3%.

When the Rams went to their 13 personnel, Seattle played nickel 50% of the time.

Teams previously had used five defensive backs against those sets 3% of the time against the Rams.

Seattle did have some issues slowing down the run early out of subpackages, but they corrected that as the game went on and forced the Rams back to more 11 personnel.

The Rams used 13 personnel on 45.8% of their plays in the first half (54.2% 11 personnel) but then dropped down to 26.9% in the second half (73.1% 11 personnel).

Seattle only allowed 3.8 yards per play in the first half on the 13 personnel plays.

The question will be whether the Seahawks figured something out that other teams can incorporate, or whether Seattle has the defensive personnel to take that approach and make it work.

Having a guy like Nick Emmanwori sure doesn’t hurt.

Tampa Bay has only faced four dropbacks out of 13 personnel this season, so the sample size is nearly nonexistent.

They have faced 62 dropbacks out of 12 personnel, if that is any guideline for what Todd Bowles may do.

On those dropbacks, the Bucs have played base defense 80.6% of the time and nickel 19.4%.

I am excited to see if the Rams utilize those looks early on here and how Bowles calibrates.

Where Tampa Bay had issues to begin with is slowing down play-action and under-center passing games.

Stafford leads the league in rate of snaps under center (60.7%) and, as a byproduct, leads the league in play-action rate (36.1%).

When Stafford has been under center, the Rams have an 81.9% play-action rate.

Against passing plays under center, the Buccaneers have allowed a 69.6% completion rate (20th), 11.9 yards per pass attempt (31st), a league-high 17.2 yards per completion, and a 7.1% touchdown rate (19th).

Against play-action passes, the Bucs are 31st in rating allowed (128.0), allowing a 72.3% completion rate (24th), a league-high 11.2 yards per pass attempt, and a 7.7% touchdown rate (28th).

On Sunday, Josh Allen was 5 of 8 for 88 yards (11.0 Y/A) under center against the Bucs.

Using play action, Allen was 6 of 9 for 129 yards (14.3 Y/A) with a touchdown.

Stafford has also been excellent against the blitz this season, and the Bucs are fourth in blitz rate (36.2%).

When blitzed, Stafford is second in the NFL in rating (127.5), completing 66.4% of his passes (10th) with 21 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Another significant note here will be the status of Jamel Dean.

Dean only played 2 snaps on Sunday due to a hip injury.

On 124 attempts with Dean off the field this season, the Bucs have allowed a league-high 9.4% touchdown rate, 8.4 Y/A (31st), and a 69.5% completion rate (28th).

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield was limited as a passer on Sunday, completing 16 of 28 passes (57.1%) for 173 yards (6.2 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.

He was able to elevate his afternoon with 5 rushes for 39 yards and a touchdown.

Mayfield did not have a rushing attempt over the three previous games, so it was a welcome sight to see him moving around again.

Gamers using Mayfield need that mobility as an added outlet for fantasy points to make up ground for the dip in efficiency in this offense.

Since Week 7, Mayfield has completed 60% of his passes (27th) for 5.7 Y/A (30th) and a 3.4% touchdown rate (28th).

His recent drop as a passer and this matchup push Mayfield into QB2 territory.

The Rams are fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.342), allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt (7th) and a 3.3% touchdown rate (6th).

Running Back

Kyren Williams: Williams only had 13 touches on Sunday, but he turned them into 96 yards and a touchdown.

He took advantage of the Seattle approach early in the game, playing nickel and dime against the Rams' heavy sets.

Williams rushed 6 times for 76 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter.  He had his two longest runs of the season, busting loose for gains of 34 and 30 yards.

His previous long this season was a 20-yard run in Week 4.

Because the Rams controlled the game script, Williams only handled 59.1% of the backfield touches.

He has been below 60% in three of the past four games, with a 65.8% rate in the other game.

Blake Corum even had 3 early touches inside the 10-yard line to 1 for Williams.

Corum was stopped on 3 straight runs from the one-yard line before Williams came in and converted on fourth down for the opening touchdown.

With the Rams as heavy home favorites, we should anticipate a similar split continuing (although maybe not at the goal line).

Against a stout run defense, Williams is an RB2 this week.

The Bucs have a league-best 69.8% success rate against running back runs and are allowing a league-low 15.4% of those runs to result in a first down or touchdown.

The Bucs are vulnerable to backs in the passing game.

They are 31st in receiving points allowed per game (12.6) to running backs.

Stafford has the second-lowest throw rate to running backs (12.4%), so it is harder to chase that.

Bucs RBs: Bucky Irving logged some practice time last week and has been working to open this week.

We will put those things together as a positive sign that he will be up for Sunday night and then adjust as more information is available.

If he is back this week, Irving is a volatile RB2.

Before Irving’s injury, Tampa Bay's running game was rough.

Out of 54 running backs with 50 or more runs this season, Irving’s 22.5% success rate is last on that list.

His 3.3 yards per carry average ranks 51st, while his 5.6% explosive run rate is 50th.

To be fair to Irving, he did not have a rushing attempt before his injury with both Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke on the field.

The Bucs just rushed for a season-high 202 yards on Sunday, but how much of that was their success versus the Buffalo defense?

With Irving being out since Week 4, we have to question what his workload will be as a road underdog here.

Sean Tucker is coming off a 140-yard and 3-touchdown game on Sunday on only 44.3% of the snaps.

We have seen Tucker do this before, and then the Bucs go right back to shelving him.

Last year, when Tucker had 190 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 6, he only played 19.5% of the snaps the following week, which was his high for the remainder of the season.

The Rams are also a capable defense that has limited backfield output.

Los Angeles is allowing 3.8 YPC to running backs (4th) and 76.9 rushing yards per game (8th).

They are third in fantasy points allowed per touch to backfields (0.70).

Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua: Nacua pulled in 7 of 8 targets for 75 yards on Sunday, tacking on 18 rushing yards.

He did lose a fumble.

Nacua was on the field for only 75% of dropbacks again, losing reps when the Rams went to their heavy packages.

That was after route rates of 55.2%, 64.7%, and 62.2% in the three previous weeks.

We brought this up last week, but Nacua has only run one pass route when the Rams have used 13 personnel.

When the Rams were in 11 personnel on Sunday, Nacua was on the field for 95.5% of those dropbacks.

Weirdly, Nacua is not part of those plays, since he is so good in the run game and should offer more flexibility on those snaps, but the Rams may also be doing so as a form of preservation for a physical player who has been banged up.

If you have followed the breakdown from last week, it overlaps with Nacua’s output.

He caught 1 pass for 10 yards in the first half when the Rams were close to a 50-50 rate of 11 versus 13 personnel, and then caught 6 of 7 targets for 65 yards after the half when they went back to more 11 personnel.

Nacua is still a demon whenever he has been on the field.

He has posted 4.32, 2.78, and 3.57 yards per route in the past three weeks with target rates of 36.4%, 26.1%, and 38.1% per route.

He is the same elite receiver per target. He is just running fewer routes.

That has chipped away at his ceiling a bit since he has not hit 9 or more targets in a game since Week 5 after averaging 12.4 per game through five games.

I seriously doubt that we have seen the last immense target week from Nacua.

The Rams can turn that valve back to more 11 personnel whenever they need to, which is why you stick with Nacua as a front-end WR1.

If we do see more of that here, Nacua has been targeted on 27.3% of his routes on play action for 3.06 yards per route.

If Dean misses, that is added icing for Nacua.

Davante Adams: Adams only secured 1 of his 8 targets on Sunday.

It was good for a touchdown at least, but only from one yard out.

The last 7 touchdowns from Adams have been 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 1, and 2 yards.

Adams has a league-high 19 end zone targets. No other Ram has more than 3.

He is living on those touchdowns as a touchdown-heavy WR2.

37.5% of his fantasy points are from touchdowns, the highest rate for a top-50 scorer this season at wide receiver.

Adams did have a pair of drops, giving him 7 this season.

Adams gets a boost from getting to play on half of those snaps from 13 personnel, where he averages 2.56 yards per route.

Playing outside on 88.2% of snaps, Adams would get the most significant matchup boost if Dean is unable to play.

With Dean off the field, outside receivers have averaged 9.3 yards per target (25th) and a 9.6% touchdown rate (30th).

Emeka Egbuka: Egbuka caught 5 of 9 targets for 40 yards on Sunday.

We have seen him slow down some in recent weeks.

Egbuka has had one top-30 scoring week over his past five games.

He has pulled in 20 of 47 targets (42.6%) over that span after catching 25 of 38 targets (65.8%) over his opening five games.

He went from a 7.9% inaccurate target rate during that opening run to a 29.8% inaccurate target rate these past five weeks, which overlaps with the period we covered with Mayfield earlier.

Egbuka’s quality of target has created variance in his fantasy output, but he is still commanding a high rate of looks.

Over his past three games, Egbuka has target shares of 37.5%, 30.2%, and 33.3%.

Even if you dock him for the variance, this workload makes him a volume-based WR2 with upside to a high ceiling when the targets are connecting.

The Rams are allowing 9.2 yards per target to outside receivers (24th), where Egbuka plays 75% of his snaps.

They have only allowed a 2.5% touchdown rate to those receivers (5th) to keep things in check for fantasy.

Tez Johnson: Johnson caught 1 of 3 targets for 6 yards on Sunday in Buffalo.

We have highlighted how Johnson was getting by on outlier touchdown production and had a low floor when he was kept out of the paint.

That happened on Sunday.

Johnson is averaging 42.2 receiving yards per game since being inserted into the regular lineup, with a high of 59 yards.

He has been targeted on only 16.2% of his routes and has target shares of 11.6% and 11.1% over the past two weeks.

He has been on the field a ton, though, and he still does have 4 touchdowns (they still count), keeping him in play as a WR4/FLEX.

Johnson was on the field for 97% of the dropbacks on Sunday.

Sterling Shepard: Shepard caught 4 of 5 targets for 54 yards on Sunday.

That was the most receiving yards he has had in a game since Week 3.

Shepard has caught more than 4 passes just once this season, making him a better option for single-game DFS and a deeper-end FLEX.

Tight End

Cade Otton: Otton only managed 2 receptions for 28 yards in Buffalo.

Running into a tough matchup, he was still tied for second on the team in targets (18.5%) and was on the field for 97% of the dropbacks.

Otton does still not have a touchdown on the season, but things get a little better here for Otton as a floor-based TE2.

The Rams are allowing 6 receptions per game to tight ends (20th).

They are only giving up 6.1 yards per target (4th) to the position, but also a 6.1% touchdown rate (19th) if chasing that first score of the season.

Rams TEs: Los Angeles tight ends combined to catch 3 of 4 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown Sunday.

The low output and flip from 13 personnel to 11 personnel from the first to the second half on Sunday is a reminder of how tough it is to chase anything more than a touchdown here.

Colby Parkinson was the tight end who got into the end zone on Sunday.

Tyler Higbee left the game with an ankle injury, which could have played a role in the Rams' lack of success in 13 on Sunday.

Despite Higbee exiting the game, Terrance Ferguson only ran 5 pass routes

Davis Allen was at 4.

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