The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers Sunday Night Football game.
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
| 23 | 13 | Points/Gm | 22 | 19 |
| 25.8 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 18.4 | 6 |
| 69 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 60 | 25 |
| 60.1 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 6 |
| 5.3 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 6 |
| 5.9 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 3 |
| 34.60% | 31 | Rush% | 44.17% | 11 |
| 65.40% | 2 | Pass% | 55.83% | 22 |
| 42.41% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 41.79% | 15 |
| 57.59% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 58.21% | 18 |
- Just 8.3% of the San Francisco drives have been three and out with a punt, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 20.9%.
- 40.9% of the drives against the Chargers have reached the red zone or have scored prior, the third-highest rate in the league.
- The Chargers are averaging 2.0 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
- The 49ers are averaging 1.1 more rushing yards per play than their opponent, second in the league.
- The 49ers are allowing a league-low 4.1 yards per play on first down.
- The Chargers are allowing 6.8 yards per play on first down, 31st in the league.
- The Chargers are one of two remaining teams (Jets being the other) that are undefeated against the spread on the road (4-0).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Herbert is in the weeds right now for fantasy. He has just one QB1 scoring week over his past four games while the Chargers are faced with injuries at wide receiver and the offensive line paired with ongoing schematic issues. I was open to Herbert besting those elements last week against an Atlanta defense injured and struggling on their own, but Herbert could not take advantage.
Since Week 5, Herbert is 19th in EPA per dropback (-0.03). Over that same period, Herbert is averaging 5.4 yards per pass attempt, ahead of only Mac Jones.
If we can’t get there against Atlanta, how are we supposed to treat Herbert as a QB1 this week on the road against the 49ers with a 20-point implied team total? Keenan Allen’s return would be a welcome sight, but how much is he adding to an immediate rebound in this spot?
The 49ers have allowed just 0.367 passing points per attempt (ninth). The only team that Herbert has faced that is higher this season is Denver. In that game, Herbert was the QB24 (8.4 points) while averaging a season-low 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
Herbert can get a lot of good faith back with a strong showing here, but I am treating him as a QB2 this week.
