The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Chargers and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.0 | Spread | 6.0 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 17.25 | ||
| 24.5 | 8 | Points/Gm | 13.5 | 31 |
| 23.5 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 22.5 | 21 |
| 64.3 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 21 |
| 67.6 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 23 |
| 5.4 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 28 |
| 5.8 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 8 |
| 39.46% | 25 | Rush% | 40.29% | 23 |
| 60.54% | 8 | Pass% | 59.71% | 10 |
| 38.58% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 43.28% | 18 |
| 61.42% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 56.72% | 15 |
- New England is the first team to lose back-to-back games when allowing 10 or fewer points since 1993 (which was also the Patriots).
- The Patriots have scored 37.2% of the points scored in their games this season, 31st in the league.
- The Patriots have run an offensive play with the lead in just three different games this season, the fewest in the league.
- 21.6% of the New England drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the lowest rate in the league.
- 39.7% of the drives against the Chargers have reached the red zone or scored prior, the third-highest rate in the league.
- The Chargers have led for 36.2% of their offensive snaps, 12th in the league and the highest rate of any team with a losing record.
- Since Week 7, 55.5% of the Chargers’ set of downs have reached third down, 29th in the league.
- Over that span, the Chargers have converted 47.7% of their third downs, fourth in the league.
- 28.4% of the Charger rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 26.8% of the runs against New England have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Herbert ran into a poor matchup and the results followed suit last week.
He closed the week as QB16 (13.4 points), completing 29-of-44 passes for 217 yards (4.9 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He added 47 yards rushing, but it was not enough to get close to the QB1 circle.
That was the second time over the past four games that Herbert has thrown for fewer than 5.0 yards per pass attempt.
Over his previous 57 starts, that had happened just twice.
From Week 6 on, Herbert is 23rd in the league in completion rate (63.4%) and 22nd in yards per pass attempt (6.7 Y/A), but he is tied for second in the league with 13 passing touchdowns.
To Herbert’s credit for fantasy, all of his down weeks have been in spots where we were already discounting him.
He has been a top-10 scorer in every game outside of facing the Chiefs, Jets, and Ravens.
New England is in the middle of the pack against fantasy passers this season, ranking 17th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.388), but they have allowed just one quarterback to finish higher than QB10 against them this season, which was Josh Allen.
Herbert has made two career starts against Bill Belichick, and they have been rough, although they came over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
In those games, Herbert completed 49.1% and 51.4% of his passes with two touchdowns and four interceptions.
Herbert is floor-based QB1 here with the options we have on bye this week.
Those previous games are tough to emphasize here, but his surrounding pass-catching corps still leave a lot to be desired in anticipating a ceiling week while we cannot count on New England pushing back here.
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