Patriots vs. Chargers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Patriots and Chargers.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Game Overview

New England heads into the postseason coming off a 14-3 season.

They won the AFC East for the first time since 2019, while those 14 victories were their most wins in a season since 2016.

New England turned their franchise around with a new coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and Terrell Williams, some serious free agency spending, and a second-year breakout by quarterback Drake Maye.

The Patriots were third in the NFL in point differential (+170).

They averaged 2.60 points per drive on offense (4th) and allowed 1.79 points per drive on defense (7th).

New England scored a touchdown on 30.5% of their possessions, third in the league behind the Rams (34.8%) and the Bills (33.9%).

This offense has been built around explosive plays.

On offense, they averaged 13.8 plays per game of 10 or more yards (4th) and led the league with 5.0 plays per game of 20-plus yards.

They also led the league with 10 plays this season of 50 or more yards.

A lot has been made of the Patriots taking advantage of their strength of schedule, but good teams should win the games they are supposed to win.

New England played only three games against winning teams this season, but that was the story for the AFC East, as Buffalo played only five (31st) and Miami six (tied for 29th).

To note how arbitrary something like this can be, the Patriots were 4-0 against teams that would have had a winning record had they beaten New England.

The Patriots did lose to the Raiders, though, the only team in the playoffs that can say that.

The Chargers won 11 games for the second straight season under Jim Harbaugh.

This is the first time the Chargers have had double-digit wins in back-to-back seasons since 2006-2007.

Last season in this spot in the Wild Card Round, the Chargers lost 12-32 on the road in Houston.

Los Angeles fought through a plethora of injuries on the offensive line, which has impacted their offensive efficiency.

Since Week 10 (after losing Joe Alt), the Chargers have averaged 4.6 yards per play (27th), have a 46.9% success rate on offense (27th), have produced a play of 10 or more yards on 16.1% of their plays (29th), and have scored 1.74 points per drive (27th).

They faced a third down on 61.6% of their sets of downs over that span, which was ahead of only the Titans (62.1%).

They faced five playoff teams over their final eight games, beating the Steelers and Eagles while losing to the Jaguars, Texans, and Broncos, with an asterisk on the Week 18 finale in Denver since they rested most of their core players.

The good news is that, while their offense worked through issues up front and a tough schedule, the Los Angeles defense was excellent, keeping them alive in close games.

The Chargers have allowed more than 20 points in just one of their past 10 games.

They allowed a touchdown on 18.1% of opponent drives this season (5th), 27.3 yards per drive (6th), and 1.80 points per drive (9th).

39.5% of the drives against the Chargers failed even to gain a first down, the highest rate in the league.

Quarterback

Drake Maye: Maye’s second-year breakout is a significant part of why New England had the turnaround it did this season.

Maye led the NFL in quarterback rating (113.5), QBR (77.2), EPA per play (0.27), and was second in success rate (51.6%).

No matter what metric you place stock into, Maye cleared.

What makes this matchup so intriguing is that it's another strength-on-strength matchup we get to see in the opening round of the playoffs.

We highlighted New England's explosive plays in the intro.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Maye completed 60.7% of his passes (2nd) for a league-high 13.4 yards per attempt.

The league average on those completions was 48.5%.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Maye completed 50% (3rd) while throwing a league-high 5 touchdowns on throws 30 or more yards downfield.

The Chargers have emphasized limiting big plays in the passing game under Jesse Minter.

They have ranked seventh and fifth in passing yards allowed the past two seasons.

The Chargers play two-high coverages on 58.2% of their defensive snaps, the second-highest rate in the league.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Chargers allowed a 40.9% completion percentage (4th) and a league-low 3.2% touchdown rate.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, the Chargers allowed a 27.8% completion rate (2nd) with an 11.1% interception rate (3rd).

The Chargers ended the season second in passing points allowed per attempt (0.321).

No quarterback threw more than 2 touchdown passes against Los Angeles this season, while only four threw multiple touchdowns.

Maye had three games against teams in the top-10 (Buffalo twice and Carolina) and two other games in the top half of the league (Baltimore and Pittsburgh).

Four of those five games were among his lowest seven games in passing points per attempt, while he carved through Carolina back in Week 4.

Still, he set the bar so high that Maye still averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game against those teams.

While this will be a challenge for both New England and the Los Angeles side, Maye can use his legs.

He was fourth among all quarterbacks this year with 450 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns.

That has been a vulnerability for the Chargers.

They ranked 20th in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks (3.2 per game).

Patrick Mahomes (57 yards and a TD, 15 yards and a TD), Jaxson Dart (54 yards and a TD), Trevor Lawrence (1 TD), Bo Nix (49 and 33 yards), Jayden Daniels (39 yards), and Geno Smith (20 yards) all added multiple points via rushing to their fantasy lines against the Chargers.

Justin Herbert: Herbert went through the wringer this season.

Rashawn Slater missed the entire season.

Joe Alt only appeared in six games.

He closed the year with a broken left hand, taking a career-high 54 sacks.

That was the second-most sacks taken in the league behind Cam Ward (55).

Herbert was hit on a league-high 129 dropbacks.

For some added context, Bo Nix led the league with 669 dropbacks this season (54 more than Herbert).

He was hit 71 times.

The Chargers can win a fistfight here, but anticipating a high-ceiling game from Herbert is a tougher challenge given what we have seen from this offense since the loss of Alt.

With Alt off the field (431 dropbacks now), Herbert has completed 65.9% of his passes (15th), averaging 7.3 air yards per pass attempt (25th), 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), a 4.2% touchdown rate (26th), 2.8% interception rate (28th), and a 10.1% sack rate (31st).

With Alt on the field (184 dropbacks), Herbert completed 67.5% of his passes, averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt, 8.3 yards per pass, had a 7.1% touchdown rate, 1.9% interception rate, and an 8.3% sack rate.

Herbert averaged 0.56 fantasy points per dropback with Alt on the field compared to 0.43 without him.

That is the difference between ranking QB7 and QB21.

The most significant difference, as you can see in those splits, is that the Chargers adopted a shorter passing game to compensate for the loss of Alt.

With Alt, 64.3% of Herbert’s passes were five or more yards downfield, 36.4% were 10 or more yards downfield, and 13% were 20 or more yards downfield.

Without Alt, 54.2% of his passes have been 5 or more yards downfield, 30.2% have been 10 or more yards downfield, and 12.3% have been 20 or more yards downfield.

The other area that has hurt this scoring offense is the red zone.

Herbert only completed 50.6% of his passes in the red zone this season, which was 28th in the league and the lowest of all playoff passers.

He had a league-high 5.2% interception rate in the red zone while taking a sack on 8.3% of his dropbacks (25th).

Herbert had only one QB1 spike week in a game without Alt, which was against the Cowboys.

A few glass-half-full notes for Herbert here for chasing an upside outcome.

He has run more than ever this season.

Herbert rushed for a career-high 498 yards.

He rushed for at least 20 yards in 11 games.

Only Josh Allen (13) had more.

Herbert had a career-high 8% scramble rate. His previous high was 6.2%.

Although I do believe the New England defense is not bad, given their roster, the Patriots were not overly challenged by opposing quarterback play this season.

Over their past 13 games, the only Week 1 starters that New England faced were Allen (x2), Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and Jaxson Dart.

The others were Dillon Gabriel, Joe Flacco, Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and a 50/50 split between Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley.

Allen (19.4 points and 24.5 points), Mayfield (22.9 points), and Fields (19.3 points) all had solid fantasy lines.

Jackson started in Week 16 and averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt on his 10 first-half passes before leaving.

Running Back

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