Bills vs. Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 9

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs.

Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scorer in seven of his eight games this season.

He is playing his best stretch of football of late, throwing 3 or more passing touchdowns in three straight games and in four of his past five.

Mahomes has completed at least 70% of his passes in four consecutive weeks after zero times over the opening four weeks of the season.

He has also thrown for over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in three straight games after failing to hit that arbitrary mark over the opening five weeks of the season.

On top of all of that, he has at least 28 yards rushing in four straight games.

His 280 rushing yards this season are only 27 short of his season total from a year ago, as he is tracking for a career-high in rushing yardage.

The Bills have allowed the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (31.1).

After allowing 70 yards to Lamar Jackson, they have allowed 60 yards to the combination of Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, 49 yards to Spencer Rattler, and double-digit yards rushing to Drake Maye (12) and Tua Tagovailoa (10).

Michael Penix (6) and Andy Dalton (1) are the only quarterbacks without double-digit yardage on the ground against the Bills.

Mahomes is as hot as they come and is back in contention as the QB1 overall on a weekly level, something we have missed the past two seasons.

These teams are no strangers, as they have developed one of the better rivalries as the top teams in the AFC in recent seasons.

They have played nine times over the past five seasons, and they typically bring out the best in each other.

Mahomes has averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game over those matchups, completing 68.5% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and a 5.8% touchdown rate.

Sean McDermott has not dared to blitz Mahomes, sending extra defenders on only 13.1% of his dropbacks.

Buffalo has once again been effective in getting pressure this season without blitzing.

They are second in the league in pressure rate (43.8%) while blitzing only 22.1% of the time (23rd).

Pressure has been paramount for the success of this defense.

They are converting 24.4% of their pressures into sacks (3rd).

With pressure, they are allowing a 45.6% completion rate (9th) and 4.8 yards per pass attempt (4th).

Without pressure, Buffalo is allowing a 75.2% completion rate (22nd) and 7.7 yards per pass attempt (22nd).

Mahomes has been impacted by pressure when defenses have gotten home.

He has completed 47.2% of his passes under pressure (22nd), compared to 73.8% when kept clean (13th).

But he averages 7.6 Y/A under pressure (3rd) with a first down or touchdown on 34.7% of his attempts (4th).

The Bills did play more man coverage against the Chiefs last season (32.4%) than in previous seasons.

Still, I would not lean on that being static here, given that Kansas City's current passing game is a superior version of the one Buffalo faced twice a year ago.

Josh Allen (TRUST): While it may seem that Allen is out of the blocks slowly this season, his completion rate (68%), touchdown rate (6.1%), and yards per pass attempt (7.9 Y/A) are all higher than a year ago when he won MVP.

He is the QB3 in fantasy points per game (22.4).

The Kansas City defense has been as hot as their offense.

They shut down Lamar Jackson before he left the game in Week 4 and held Jared Goff to 203 passing yards in Week 6.

Outside of those matchups, they have faced Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, and Trevor Lawrence over the past five weeks.

Despite Kansas City's recent success, these high-profile games are when Allen typically takes on more ownership of the offense and posts some crooked fantasy lines.

He is averaging 26.5 fantasy points per game in the nine matchups between these teams.

Allen has used his legs a lot in these games.

He averages 10.4 runs per game against the Chiefs with double-digit rushing attempts in seven straight games in this matchup.

That has resulted in 54.1 rushing yards per game, with a low of 32.

Allen has a 9.5% scramble rate in these games to go along with 5.4 designed runs per game.

The Chiefs are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks this season (26.9).

Justin Herbert (32 yards), Jalen Hurts (15 with a score), Russell Wilson (27), Lamar Jackson (48), Trevor Lawrence (54 with two scores), and Marcus Mariota (28) have all rushed for double-digit yardage against the Bills.

Whereas McDermott has played more passively against Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo has been more aggressive with Allen.

Spagnuolo has blitzed Allen on 30% of his dropbacks and played man coverage on 34.6% of his dropbacks.

Those rates have been steady per season as well.

The Chiefs should want to dial things down, but this is what they do.

When blitzed by the Chiefs, Allen has completed 55.2% of his passes for 5.4 yards per pass attempt but has a 6.7% touchdown rate.

Last year, when these teams played, Allen had a 58.3% success rate on man blitzes compared to a 40.3% success rate on non-blitz dropbacks.

Running Back

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