The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.
|33.58%||6||Opp. Rush %||48.15%||25|
|66.42%||27||Opp. Pass %||51.85%||8|
- Under Frank Reich, the Colts are 5-10-1 (7-8-1 ATS) in September and have not won five straight games.
- With Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are 13-2 (9-6 ATS) in September.
- The Chiefs are second in expected points added per offensive play (0.286).
- The Colts are 30th in expected points added per offensive play (-0.138), ahead of only the Saints and Cowboys.
- Indianapolis has scored on 16.7% of their drives (4-of-24), the lowest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored on 52.4% of their possessions, second in the league.
Patrick Mahomes: After pacing the position in points in Week 1 (34.4 points), Mahomes dipped down to QB13 (17.3 points) in Week 2. After 9.2 yards per attempt in Week 1, Mahomes threw for 6.7 yards per attempt in Week 2.
The matchups have a lot to do with the outcomes, going from the Cardinals to the Chargers. The Chargers have the personnel to limit Travis Kelce as we highlighted in this space a week ago, while the Kansas City wide receivers highlighted the limitations this offense could endure when Kelce is unable to do the lifting through the air. Mahomes also did lose a possession due to a 99-yard interception return, missing out on some counting stats.
An interesting start to the season, no team has faced man coverage more than the Chiefs on passing plays (52.0%). In 2021, opponents played man coverage on just 25% of the Kansas City passing plays. The Chargers have consistently played heavier man coverage against Kansas City under Brandon Staley, so we will see if this is just a short-term sample or if teams want to challenge their wide receivers now without Tyreek Hill.
The Colts play heavy zone (81.5%) and force teams to take shallow targets (7.0 average depth of target which is 12th lowest) so we could see a dink and dunk approach from the Chiefs.
This is also a Gus Bradley led Colts defense, who is no stranger to Mahomes. In seven starts against Bradley’s defenses, Mahomes has averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game, throwing 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Bradley was not someone who came out of his Cover 3 looks a year ago when everyone was having success with two-high safeties against the Chiefs, so it is hard to say he won’t just keep doing the same here.
Facing Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence to start the year, Indianapolis has allowed a 71.6% completion rate (31st) and 7.1 yards per attempt (17th).
I am not worried about Mahomes big picture at all. We have seen two extremes play out early in the season that I believe are more opponent driven, with the truth lying in the middle. If that is the case, the difference between Week 1 and Week 2 is still a QB1.