In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Team Seconds per Play Overall 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing Miami FL 22.2 58.3% 35.4% 63.3% Pittsburgh 25.3 54.3% 37.4% 72.7% Texas 26.5 44.6% 30.7% 58.6% Baylor 27.9 41.6% 32.4% 52.6% Cincinnati 25.9 51.0% 41.8% 47.1% Tulane 22.6 56.4% 25.5% 61.3% Indiana 26.3 53.3% 43.7% 56.7% Maryland 25.6 56.0% 37.1% 58.9% Michigan 28.0 34.9% 26.2% 33.3% Michigan State 25.0 45.5% 42.6% 66.7% Iowa 28.6 47.6% 39.9% 61.2% Wisconsin 29.5 36.3% 24.1% 56.7% Iowa State 29.2 52.4% 42.0% 59.3% West Virginia 27.9 54.3% 40.0% 69.9% Georgia 29.3 39.6% 31.5% -- Florida 26.4 47.8% 41.6% 50.5% Florida State 25.6 49.7% 39.3% 49.6% Clemson 25.1 52.8% 42.0% 60.0% Colorado 28.6 41.2% 38.2% 48.1% Oregon 24.9 48.4% 39.3% 42.2% Texas Tech 26.0 51.5% 46.8% 58.2% Oklahoma 27.1 53.4% 41.0% 59.0% TCU 26.8 44.7% 22.7% 49.0% Kansas State 30.6 45.0% 27.1% 52.0% Purdue 25.9 61.8% 47.6% 74.0% Nebraska 24.9 46.1% 30.6% 59.5% Duke 22.1 45.4% 32.8% 49.6% Wake Forest 22.5 50.2% 44.3% 56.3%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Sam Hartman, Wake Forest vs. Duke
Salary: $9,000
After nearly reaching 50 fantasy points last week, Sam Hartman’s salary climbed $1,200 but he still looks like a high-upside quarterback in this matchup against Duke.
Both Wake Forest and Duke rank in the top 10 in pace of play, so we should expect increased possessions for both offenses.
Duke’s defense ranks 122nd in explosive pass rate allowed (percentage of plays for 20 or more yards) and 129th in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks (32.4).
There’s some risk in Wake Forest running away with this game as 17-point favorites, but Hartman has at least 25 pass attempts in every game and should have a safe floor with an elite ceiling.
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati at Tulane
Salary: $8,300
Tulane ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (32.5 per game), so Desmond Ridder is obviously on our radar.
Ridder’s fantasy production has dipped this season, but Tulane’s inability to generate pressure should help. The Green Wave pressures quarterbacks on 29.2% of dropbacks (ranked 93rd).
Ridder’s been held under 15 fantasy points in consecutive games, so expect his rostership to be lower than earlier this season, but we should still expect a high ceiling with Cincinnati’s implied total at 44.3 points.
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas at Baylor
Salary: $9,700
The Baylor defense is allowing just 15.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, but elite ball carriers have had success running on the Bears:
- Iowa State’s Breece Hall: 27 carries, 181 yards, 2 TD
- Oklahoma State’s Jaylen Warren: 36 carries, 125 yards, 2 TD
This is a steep salary for Bijan Robinson, but with a 35% opportunity share in a high-scoring offense, he’s capable of putting up huge numbers against anyone.
Robinson posted 41.1 fantasy points against Oklahoma State’s defense two weeks ago 一 a comparable unit to Baylor 一 so we should still trust him against the Bears.
RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State vs. TCU
Salary: $9,400
Deuce Vaughn has reached at least 24 fantasy points against everyone except Iowa State and Oklahoma State 一 two defenses which ranked in the top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. Against everyone else, he’s averaging 30.9 fantasy points per game.
The TCU defense is a mess, allowing an explosive rush rate of 17.2% (percentage of carries for 10 or more yards), which ranks 120th in the nation. The Horned Frogs are also giving up 36.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 122nd.
Based on this matchup, Vaughn is a decent bet to have the highest rostership on this slate.
RB Jerome Ford, Cincinnati at Tulane
Salary: $9,200
The Tulane defense ranks 110th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (33.2 per game). The Green Wave also ranks 94th in explosive rush rate allowed.
With three games over 30 points and a peak of 49 points, Jerome Ford has demonstrated the elite ceiling necessary to produce despite the high salary.
WR Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest vs. Duke
Salary: $7,600
As mentioned earlier (see Sam Hartman), Duke gives up big plays at a high rate, so Jaquarii Roberson has an elevated ceiling in this matchup.
Roberson leads Wake Forest with 12 receptions on 19 targets at 15 or more yards downfield according to Sports Info Solutions, making him the most likely candidate to take advantage of the Blue Devils defense.
Roberson carries the highest salary among receivers on this slate, followed closely by teammate A.T. Perry ($7,500), which diminishes their value slightly, but both have elite ceilings.
We should probably have much higher exposure to Roberson than Perry based on their usage. Though Perry leads the team with eight touchdowns, Roberson leads the team with 10 end zone targets, compared to just three for Perry.
WR David Bell, Purdue at Nebraska
Salary: $7,100
Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell struggles mightily when pressured, but that shouldn’t be a problem against a Nebraska defense that ranks 109th in pressure rate, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Nebraska also ranks 101st in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield, making this an ideal matchup for David Bell, who sees 45% of his targets at that distance.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Gunnar Holmberg, Duke at Wake Forest
Salary: $6,800
It’s risky to roster Gunnar Holmberg following his 2.9-point performance against Virginia his last time out, but he’s worth throwing into some lineups in a potentially high-scoring game.
Holmberg has topped 20 points three times, so despite the low floor, there’s a respectable ceiling here too.
Wake Forest is allowing 28.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, which ranks 124th.
Since Wake Forest’s playmakers carry high salaries, using Holmberg in a game stack could be a wise approach.
QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State at West Virginia
Salary: $6,400
Among quarterbacks with at least five games played, Brock Purdy ranks 67th in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t been reliable, reaching 20 points only twice, but that might work in our favor this week as it should lead to low rostership.
When opponents elect not to blitz, Purdy has been dominant, completing 76% of his throws for 9.2 yards per attempt. That bodes well for his matchup with West Virginia, which blitzes only 13% of the time, the sixth-lowest rate in the nation, according to Sports Info Solutions.
QB Michael Pratt, Tulane vs. Cincinnati
Salary: $5,900
Cincinnati is allowing 11.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the nation. Obviously, there is risk in rostering Pratt, but he’s topped 20 points in five of seven games and does enough damage on the ground to have a good shot at reaching that number against Cincinnati.
Pratt also benefits from Tulane’s fast pace (12th fastest) and heavy pass volume while trailing in the second half (61% pass rate).
RB Will Shipley, Clemson vs. Florida State
Salary: $5,700
In his return from injury last week, freshman Will Shipley had just 10 carries, but that was likely due to a negative game script in a loss to Pittsburgh.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 87% of Shipley’s carries have come in 11 personnel. Florida State ranks 77th in yards per attempt allowed versus 11 personnel (5.3).
With Kobe Pace out due to COVID-19 protocols, Shipley should see a significant workload as the lead back.
WR Jalen Nailor, Michigan State vs. Michigan
Salary: $5,900
The Michigan pass defense has been dominant, but it also hasn’t been tested by a competent passing offense. The total for this game is set to 50.5, so expect Jalen Nailor’s rostership to be low, which potentially boosts his tournament value.
With a 33.5% target share and 12.5 aDOT, Nailor is still worth a gamble despite the expected low-scoring game.
WR Jake Bobo, Duke at Wake Forest
Salary: $5,600
Slot receiver Jalon Calhoun ($6,300) is Duke’s highest salaried receiver but Jake Bobo leads the team with a 30% target share. Bobo has topped at least 18 fantasy points in four games, despite only reaching the end zone once.
Both teams play at a fast pace, and Duke will likely be playing from behind, setting a strong projected usage for Bobo.
Despite Wake Forest’s success overall, the defense has been shaky, ranking 91st in explosive pass rate allowed.
WR Ty Fryfogle, Indiana at Maryland
Salary: $5,400
Keep your exposure to Ty Fryfogle low, but he’s worth gambling on in a lineup or two. The Maryland defense ranks 106th in explosive pass rate allowed, so Fryfogle definitely has the potential for a few big plays in this matchup.
Third-string quarterback Donaven McCulley ($5,400) is expected to start, which increases the risk, but might also boost Fryfogle’s ceiling.
McCulley attempted the first passes of his career last week against Ohio State, and all six of his throws were at least 15 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. That’s a small sample size, but how often do freshmen get thrown into the fire and are immediately asked to take shots downfield?
It certainly looks like the Indiana coaching staff likes McCulley’s arm and will attempt to challenge Maryland downfield if he starts.
McCulley also has dual-threat ability, so he may be worth a dart throw in a lineup or two as well.
WR Joshua Moore, Texas at Baylor
Salary: $4,900
Texas slot receiver Jordan Whittington is out for the year, and in the first game without him, Joshua Moore saw a season-high eight targets (32% target share).
The Baylor pass defense is stingy, but the total for this game is set to 61.5, so we should still expect enough scoring opportunities for Moore to provide value on this reasonable salary.
WR Kaylon Geiger, Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Salary: $4,800
I’m mostly fading Texas Tech this week, but Kaylon Geiger’s $1,100 salary drop after last week’s five-point performance is an overreaction. He’s still second on the team with a 20% target share and sees a strong 11.2-yard aDOT.
Oklahoma generates pressure at the 17th highest rate and Texas Tech quarterback Henry Columbi ($5,400) struggles when pressured (6.8 yards per attempt), which is why I’m mostly staying away from the Red Raiders. However, it won’t take a huge performance from Columbi for Geiger to prove valuable on this salary.
WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan vs. Michigan State
Salary: $4,600
As the downfield weapon in the Michigan offense, Cornelius Johnson is a boom-or-bust fantasy option and worth a tournament dart throw in most matchups. He’s been held to single-digit fantasy points five of seven games, but topped 20 points in the other two contests.
Michigan State ranks 11th in the Big Ten in completion percentage allowed at 10 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. 59% of Johnson’s targets have been at least 10 yards downfield.
WR Jared Wayne, Pittsburgh vs. Miami FL
Salary: $4,000
Pitt’s leading receiver Jordan Addison ($7,200) is a game-time decision due to a concussion, and Jared Wayne is listed as his backup in the slot.
Even with a healthy Addison, Wayne is fourth in the team with a 10% target share, so he’ll likely be trusted to step into a bigger role if necessary.
WR Key’Shawn Smith, Miami FL at Pittsburgh
Salary: $3,700
Over the last two weeks, freshman Key’Shawn Smith leads Miami with 19 targets, including a team-high nine targets at 10 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Pitt is allowing just 14.5 fantasy points per game to WR1s, so there’s not a huge ceiling for Smith, but he’s a viable punt option on this low salary.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO FADE
QB Caleb Williams, Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Salary: $10,000
I’ll build a couple lineups with Caleb Williams, because we’ve already seen the elite ceiling, but he isn’t a player to build around after witnessing that disaster against Kansas last week. Williams remains the highest-salaried player on the slate, when he should probably come at a discount.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Williams was just 1-4 for six yards, with three sacks when facing pressure. If Kansas is capable of causing a performance like that, we have to assume his floor is low against a better defense.
After this week, Oklahoma has a bye and followed by an important showdown with Baylor. Given that scenario, it would make sense for Oklahoma to play it fairly safe this week, pounding the ball on the ground and keeping Williams out of harm’s way.
QB Tyler Van Dyke, Miami FL at Pittsburgh
Salary: $6,700
Miami freshman quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was a DFS star last week, with 32.8 points on a $6,400 salary, but don’t bet on a repeat performance.
The Pittsburgh defense blitzes on 36% of opponents’ dropbacks, the 22nd highest rate, according to Sports Info Solutions. Van Dyke ranks 106th in EPA per dropback against the blitz (-.29).
With Pitt favored by 9.5 points, Van Dyke’s passing volume should be high, but until he’s proven some stability, it’s best to assume last week was an outlier and avoid him against a strong defense.
