The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Round Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday Night Football game.
Against the Spread
Cowboys: 10-7
Buccaneers: 4-12-1
Buccaneers ATS at Home: 1-6-1
Cowboys ATS Away: 4-4
Cowboys ATS as Favorite: 7-5
Buccaneers ATS as Underdog: 0-3
Game Overview
This is where we kicked off Sunday Night Football back in Week 1, with the Buccaneers going into Dallas and winning 19-3.
That feels almost like a different season as Dak Prescott was injured at the end of the game, the Buccaneers actually ran the ball well, and Julio Jones was a major contributor. The Cowboys were dreadful in the opener and it was their worst game of the season… up until last week.
Both of these teams have taken different paths to this point. The Cowboys went 4-1 without Prescott and then caught fire on his return. Since Prescott’s return in Week 7, Dallas leads the NFL in points per drive (2.69), touchdown rate per drive (33.6%), and third down conversion rate (52.3%). They were so good overall in those areas that last week’s complete no-show in Washington still didn’t take them down a notch. Compared to Tampa Bay’s offensive metrics these areas are a no contest.
That said, Dallas does enter this weekend with some questions orbiting them. They have lost two of their past four games, which includes last week’s game where they looked as bad as how they opened the season versus the Bucs. In Week 18, Dallas had a season-low 182 total yards and scored just six points, their fewest since the season opener.
This will also be the third straight road game for the Cowboys and their fourth road game since December 18th. We also have the creeping narrative now questioning if this team can play outdoors on grass since they have lost road games in Philadelphia, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Washington.
The Cowboys also are entering the postseason bleeding out defensively, especially in the secondary. Over the past five weeks to close the season the Cowboys have ranked 16th in points allowed per drive (1.86) after ranking third prior (1.54). They have allowed 5.7 yards per play over that span (29th) after allowing 4.8 yards per play prior (fourth).
The question is, can this Buccaneers offense take advantage?
Tampa Bay came out of the regular season scoring a touchdown on 16.0% of their possessions, the lowest rate of any team in the NFC. Only the Commanders averaged fewer points per drive (1.52) than the Bucs (1.58) in the NFC while only the Rams, Cardinals, and Commanders averaged fewer yards per play than Tampa Bay (5.1) in the NFC. The Buccaneers were 21st in the league in third down conversion rate (37.4%) while ranking dead last in conversion rate on third and long situations (needing seven or more yards) at 11.1%.
The Bucs defense and schedule kept them alive while they regularly had to come from behind in the closing minutes to beat teams like the Rams, Saints, and Cardinals. Tampa Bay allowed opponents to score on 33.0% of their drives (seventh) while forcing a three and out on 39.6% of drives, trailing only the 49ers (39.9%). Dallas in Week 1 was their best defensive performance of the season as they allowed the Chiefs (41 points), Ravens (27 points), 49ers (35 points), and Bengals (34 points although on the strength of giveaways) to post weeks that made it hard for this offense to pace.
