The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1  Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams Sunday Night Football game on September 13, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.

DallasRank@LA RamsRank
-3Spread3
27.5Implied Total24.5
27.16Points/Gm24.610
20.19Points All./Gm22.817
66.87Plays/Gm65.98
63.416Opp. Plays/Gm6626
42.00%12Rush%38.00%25
58.00%21Pass%62.00%8
40.10%13Opp. Rush %42.10%19
59.90%20Opp. Pass %58.00%14
  • These teams have played in each of the past three seasons, with the game total going over the total (65, 52, and 65 combined points scored).
  • Dallas ranked second in the league in seconds per play (26.1) in 2019 outside of the 4th quarter while the Rams were third (26.2).
  • The Cowboys averaged 86.3 non-passing fantasy points per game offensively in 2019, the most in the league. 
  • Dallas averaged a league-high 6.5 yards per play in 2019.
  • Since Dak Prescott entered the league in 2016, Dallas has ranked 29th in the league in red zone passing rate (48.1%) and 30th in passing rate inside of the 10-yard line (38.8%). Even with Prescott having his best season throwing the football a year ago, Dallas still reverted to having Prescott hand the ball off near the end zone, ranking 30th in red zone passing rate (45.7%) and 32nd in passing rate inside of the 10-yard line (31.6%) in 2019.
  • Jared Goff had a league-high seven completions get tackled at the 1-yard line in 2019, none of which resulted in a subsequent touchdown pass for the quarterback.

 

Quarterback

Dak Prescott: Prescott was already a stable fantasy producer over his first three years in the league, but broke out in a big way last season as a passer, throwing for a career-high 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. He led the position in passing points (18.4 per game) and ranked 10th in rushing points per game (2.9). Prescott is one of just two quarterbacks to finish as a top-10 overall scorer in each of the past four seasons. 

Set up to potentially improve on his passing breakout from a year ago with the addition of CeeDee Lamb and an increased role for Blake Jarwin, Prescott has posted 17.7, 22,9, and 22.6 points over his three meetings between these teams. He was the QB12 in scoring when these teams met last season in Week 15, despite Prescott throwing just seven times in the second half after he went 9-of-16 for 160 yards and two touchdowns in establishing a 28-7 lead before the half. 

The Rams defense that was 10th in the NFL in expected points added via their pass defense and was fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (27.9%) in 2019. They remain strong in the pass rushing department, but are replacing Corey Littleton and Nickell-Robey Coleman as interior coverage defenders with Micah Kiser and David Long. Kiser has yet to play a defensive snap in the NFL and missed all of the 2019 season while Long logged just 109 snaps in his rookie season a year ago. 

Jared Goff: Goff closed the 2019 season as the QB22 in points per game (15.5) while hitting lows in yards per pass attempt (7.4) and touchdown rate (3.5%) since his rookie season. But unlike his finish to the 2018 season, Goff did close the 2019 season on a positive swing that showcased his passing upside still is present in this offense. Goff threw multiple touchdown passes in each of his final five games of the season while averaging 329 passing yards and 20.8 fantasy points per game over that span. 

Through three seasons with McVay, Goff has now attempted 477, 561, and 626 passes. His 22 touchdown passes were the third-fewest among the 62 seasons in which a quarterback threw for over 4,500 yards. 

Goff managed a QB13 scoring week (17.6 points) when these teams met a year ago, stacking some late-game production to get him there. In that game, Goff threw for just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, his third-lowest mark of the season. Dallas was 13th in the league last season in passing points allowed per game (13.9) to opposing quarterbacks, but faced the third-lightest schedule of opponents based on fantasy scoring entering their matchups. They also have some turnover defensively, primarily on the back end after losing Byron Jones in free agency. In a potentially high-scoring game, Goff is a solid-volume based option. 

Running back

Ezekiel Elliott: As the Cowboys made a turn into fully unlocking Dak Prescott’s passing acumen in 2019, Elliott did have his fewest yards from scrimmage per game (111.1 yards), but that mark was still good for fifth in the league. Elliott’s targets did also decline from 6.3 per game in 2018 to 4.4 per game a year ago, but his 22.2 touches per game still ranked third at the position.

Elliott has done nothing but deliver in these matchups with the Rams, posting 160 (28.0 PPR points), 66 (14.6 points), and 139 yards from scrimmage (25.9 points) in his three games versus the Rams with Prescott under center. Even Tony Pollard posted 143 yards from scrimmage when these teams played a year ago. The losses of Travis Frederick and La’El Collins will be tested out of the gates, but we know what we have in Elliott from a usage and offensive attachment stance. 

Rams RBs: While we know what the Cowboys backfield is, there is some slight ambiguity entering Week 1 for the Rams. Darrell Henderson now is set to be active on Sunday after dealing with a hamstring injury. He is set to compliment second-round rookie Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown, who beat writers keep suggesting will be involved and could potentially work in the passing game and near the goal line as Akers learns the ropes.

We also do not know how or if the Rams running game fully bounces back after a disappointing 2019 season regardless of who is the lead or feature back here. The Rams backs combined for 23.2 touches (30th) for 95.5 yards from scrimmage per game (31st), averaging 4.1 yards per touch (30th) in 2019 while their offensive line fell to 19th in adjusted line yards. Dallas was 14th in rushing points allowed per game (12.3) to backfields a year ago and 21st in receiving points allowed per game (11.0) to backs. Akers is still the upside fantasy play here as Brown’s involvement could be overstated, but Henderson’s return adds one more obstacle to him completely taking over in Week 1. There is potential that this game pops entirely on the scoreboard, but with no preseason usage clarity to help guide us, Akers is more of a fringe RB2 in the expectation department and single-game DFS dart while Henderson and Brown are still bench stashes as we monitor the usage of the Los Angeles backfield.

Wide receiver

Amari Cooper: Cooper is averaging 5.3 catches for 76.5 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game (16.2 PPR PPG) since joining the Cowboys. He has some funky home/road splits with the Cowboys, however. In 14 games at home with Dallas, Cooper has caught 94-of-119 targets (78.9%) for 1,525 yards (16.2 Y/R) and 11 touchdowns (22.2 PPR points per game) as opposed to catching 51-of-94 targets (54.3%) for 559 yards (10.9 Y/R) and four touchdowns (10.2 points per game) in 13 road games. His highest yardage total on the road with Dallas is 83 yards, reaching 50 yards receiving in just four of those games.

Cooper has played just two games against Jalen Ramsey, but has managed lines of 1-9-0 (two targets) and 4-29-0 (five targets) in those contests. With this matchup, however, there is no guarantee that we see Ramsey shadow Cooper. A year ago, Cooper ran 39% of his routes at LWR, 14% in the slot, and 47% at RWR. 

One thing the draft selection of CeeDee Lamb does is potentially allow Cooper to play more in the slot. Lamb himself has some slot experience, playing 26% of senior snaps inside, but his experience lining up outside gives Dallas added flexibility to use Cooper in a more dynamic fashion. Since joining the Cowboys, Cooper has run just 14.8% of his routes from the slot after a 20% slot rate with the Raiders.

In the slot for the Cowboys, Cooper has averaged 17.4 yards per reception and 2.7 yards per route run working from the interior. For his career, Cooper has now averaged 2.4 yards per route run, 8.9 yards per target, and a 7.0% touchdown rate in the slot as opposed to 1.8 yards per route, 8.6 yards per target, and a 5.3% touchdown rate on the outside. Whoever, the Dallas slot receiver is will draw the best matchup here against second-year cornerback David Long, who allowed a 115.4 rating on his 85 coverage snaps as a rookie. 

Michael Gallup: Gallup has averaged 15.4 and 16.8 yards per catch in his first two NFL seasons while making a major jump in year two, catching 66-of-113 targets for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games. Gallup missed Weeks 3-4 with a knee injury, but once he returned to the lineup in Week 5, he out-targeted Cooper 97-to-90 the rest of the season while posting a 53-881-6 line compared to Cooper’s 58-903-4 over that stretch. If the Rams play things straight up, Gallup could find Ramsey the most often, running 50% of his routes at LWR.

Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp: Woods and Kupp flip-flopped fantasy halves in 2019 production. Through those opening 10 weeks of the season, Kupp was the WR6 in overall PPR scoring, catching 58-of-91 targets for 792 yards and five touchdowns. Kupp averaged 13.7 yards per catch, and 2.36 yards per route run over that span, running 71.9% of his routes from the slot while being targeted on 26.3% of his routes.

In the transition to increased usage of 12 personnel, Kupp was forced to win more outside. Over the final seven weeks during that transition, Kupp caught 36-of- 43 targets for 360 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per catch and 1.66 yards per route run. He ran 60.4% of his routes from the slot and was targeted on 19.8% of his routes over that span. Woods was a benefactor over that stretch, scoring as the WR6 overall over those final seven weeks, catching 45-of-68 targets for 568 yards and two touchdowns. 

When these teams met in Week 15 a year ago, Kupp posted 6-41-1 (six targets) while Woods had 4-17-0 on nine targets. With no Byron Jones to deal with, the matchup is less daunting for Woods (who ran 85% of his routes on the perimeter a year ago) against Chidobe Awuzie and rookie Trevon Diggs, but both Rams wideouts should be viewed as WR2 options. 

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has some target competition in Cooper and Gallup, but Randall Cobb averaged 5.6 targets per game in this offense a year ago in games with both Cooper and Gallup active. There is a path for Lamb to get more usage and run into the better of the individual matchups should he primarily play the slot here to open the season. There is a wide range of outcomes here for Lamb that make him tough to rely on in seasonal lineups right away, but if he does play inside more than Cooper, he makes for an intriguing target in single-game DFS slates.

Josh Reynolds/Van Jefferson: There is some fragility in going all-in assuming the Rams are solely a 12 personnel team. From Weeks 11-17, at any point the Rams trailed, they still used 11 personnel on 85% of their offensive snaps. They used 11 on 53% of their snaps tied or leading and on just 41% when tied or leading in the second half. Due to the game script when these teams played a year ago, they were in 11 personnel for 96% of their snaps. Reynolds is still the early-season favorite to be in when the Rams go to 11 personnel, but rookie Van Jefferson was the talk of training camp and could find his way into snaps earlier than expected.  

Tight end

Tyler Higbee: No tight end closed the 2019 season as hot as Higbee did. Higbee ended scorching hot on a five-game tear that saw him catch 43 passes for 522 yards and two touchdowns as he was the highest-scoring fantasy tight end over that span. The crazy part of Higbee’s end of the season run is that he actually underachieved in the scoring department. Higbee reached the end zone just three times despite leading the Rams in end zone targets (eight) and getting tackled at the 1-yard line on three other occasions. That hot run included catching 12-of-14 targets for 111 yards against the Cowboys. Opposing teams targeted their tight ends a league-high 26.3% of the time against Dallas in 2019. 

Gerald Everett: That target share to opposing tight ends could also be good for Everett should the Rams hang around in neutral to positive game script. Everett had a hot run of 28-322-2 on 49 targets over the six games Weeks 4-10, but then picked up an ankle injury and never reclaimed a role as  Higbee went bonkers to close the season. But if the Rams are playing catchup on the scoreboard and revert back to a heavy 11-personnel base team as mentioned with the WR3 options, Higbee is the safer bet to be on the field more.

Blake Jarwin: Jarwin has averaged 11.7 yards per catch and 8.7 yards per target over the past two seasons while all other Dallas tight ends have posted 8.9 yards per catch and 6.6 yards per target. Jason Witten’s departure leaves 83 targets vacated in the Dallas offense from 2019 for Jarwin to expand on the 41 looks he received a year ago. The Rams ranked 25th in yardage allowed per game to tight ends (56.7 yards) and 28th in yards per target (8.4) allowed to the position. Dallas tight ends combined to catch 6-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown in this matchup a year ago.

More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

HOU at KC | SEA at ATL | NYJ at BUF | LVR at CAR | CHI at DET | IND at JAX | GB at MIN | MIA at NE | CLE at BAL | PHI at WFT | LAC at CIN | TB at NO | ARI at SF | DAL at LAR | PIT at NYG | TEN at DEN