Seahawks vs Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon game on September 13, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

Seattle	Rank	@	Atlanta	Rank
-1		Spread	1
25		Implied Total	24
24.7	9	Points/Gm	23.8	13
24.2	19	Points All./Gm	24.9	22
64.6	11	Plays/Gm	68.5	2
63	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.6	7
45.70%	6	Rush%	33.00%	32
54.30%	27	Pass%	67.00%	1
39.20%	8	Opp. Rush %	42.70%	23
60.90%	25	Opp. Pass %	57.30%	10

Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, Seattle has a league-best 21-9 (19-9-2 ATS) record (.700) playing in the Eastern Time Zone, including eight straight wins (6-1-1 ATS).
Wilson is the only quarterback to have at least 30 touchdown passes in each of the past three seasons and the only quarterback with multiple seasons of 30-plus passing scores over that span.
Wilson has finished first or second in end zone pass attempts in each of the past three seasons.
Seattle targeted their wide receivers 71% of the time in the red zone (first in the league) as opposed to 61% outside of the red zone (18th).
After scoring 63.7 fantasy points in the red zone through four seasons, Tyler Lockett scored 73.4 points in that area in 2019.
No team threw the ball more while ahead outside of the fourth quarter than the Falcons (65%).
77.6% of the offensive yardage gained by Atlanta in 2019 came via passing, the highest rate in the league.
In the four seasons paired with Dirk Koetter, Matt Ryan has ranked first (41.1), second (39.3), second (40.7), and sixth (38.4) in pass attempts per game.
Seattle threw the ball just 50% of the time while ahead outside of the fourth quarter (26th).

Quarterback

Russell Wilson: The Seahawks have ranked higher than 19th in passing plays just once during Wilson’s eight seasons in the league, but he keeps overcoming his environment. Despite ranking 26th in pass attempts per game (32.3), Wilson ranked fifth in passing points per attempt (.540). We have long clamored for #LetRussCook and when these teams met a year ago in Atlanta, the power-dampening field of the Seattle offense was on display once again. In that Week 8 meeting, Wilson was 9-of-15 for 110 yards and two touchdowns as the Seahawks established a 24-0 halftime lead. In typical Seattle fashion, Wilson then threw just five passes the rest of the game (completing all five passes) for 72 yards.

In four games versus Dan Quinn’s scheme while with the Falcons, Wilson has completed 63.4% of his passes, for 7.2 Y/A and a 4.7% touchdown rate, all below his career rates.

Atlanta struggled in bulk versus the pass in 2019, ranking 23rd in passing points allowed per game (15.9) and 24th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.48), but did make strides to close the season. After allowing 23.4 fantasy points per game and 8.5 Y/A to opposing starting quarterbacks through eight weeks, the Falcons allowed 14.1 fantasy points per game and 7.0 Y/A to opposing starters, including two games versus Drew Brees and another against Jimmy Garoppolo.

Despite their late-season improvements, there is not a lot on paper defensively for Atlanta to scare you off Wilson here except for the Seattle offense itself holding him back should Atlanta not match the scoreboard with the added bonus of shootout potential.

Matt Ryan: Ryan has now thrown for over 4,000 yards in nine consecutive seasons and is a strong early- season favorite to lead the league in pass attempts given his history with Koetter, the league’s hardest overall schedule, and an unknown running game. Ryan faded down the stretch of 2019, turning in just two top-12 scoring weeks over his final nine games (14.3 points per game) after averaging 23.1 points prior, but did suffer a midseason ankle injury, while the trade of Mahomed Sanu and injuries to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Austin Hooper all occurred over that back half of the season. That ankle injury forced him to miss the matchup between these teams a year ago.

Seattle arguably could have the league’s worst pass rush this season. After ranking 28th in pressure rate and tied for 29th in sacks a year ago, the Seahawks let Jadaveon Clowney stay a free agent while making no significant additions in the area. Where they did improve the roster was on the back end by adding Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar, putting the test to what matters more for pass defense, secondary play or pass rush.

Ryan has had success versus Pete Carroll’s defenses over his career, sporting a 16-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and 100.1 rating while averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game across those seven meetings.

Running back

Chris Carson: Carson has been the RB16 and RB13 in points per game over the past two years while increasing his yards from scrimmage in each of his first three NFL seasons. In 2019, Carson averaged 2.5 receptions per game 5.0 PPR receiving points per game. While that was still only good for 26th at his position, it was a major step for Carson after averaging 3.0 receiving points per game over his first two years in the league.

Carson led all running backs with seven fumbles in 2019 that put his midseason playing time on shaky ground, but he had previously fumbled just three times over 323 touches over his first two seasons in the league and closed the season as a bell cow back prior to his season-ending hip injury.

Healthy to start the season, Carson will play ahead of Carlos Hyde against an Atlanta run defense that allowed a middling 4.22 YPC to opposing backs (18th) during the season and 90 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries to Carson in this matchup a year ago without a reception. Carson is a volume-based fantasy option that needs touchdown production to carry him into the RB1-territory in weekly PPR formats.

Todd Gurley: Gurley went from second in touches per game in 2018 (22.5) all the way down to 17th in touches per game (16.9) a year ago surrounding concerns over his arthritic knee. His efficiency was sapped, losing 3.1 yards per catch, 1.1 yards per carry, and 1.6 yards per touch on that reduced workload. His explosiveness also dried up, posting a run of 10 or more yards on 35.8% of his rushing attempts after 46.0% and 49.4% over his first two seasons playing in Sean McVay’s system.

There were some positives, however. Gurley broke a tackle on 18.5% of his touches, which was up from 13.3% in 2018 and 16.6% in 2017. Gurley also maintained a nose for the end zone, scoring 14 times. He has now scored double-digit touchdowns in four of his five NFL seasons.

Still just 26-years-old with minimal competition in a high-scoring offense, Gurley still has weekly upside, especially early in the season while he is at his healthiest. Seattle was not a defense to run from a year ago, checking in 25th in rushing points allowed per game (14.9) and 19th in receiving points allowed per game (10.9) to backfields.

Wide receiver

Julio Jones: Jones has had his yards per receptions decrease in each of the past two seasons from the year prior, but he still closed 2019 ranking third at the position in targets per game (10.5), fourth in receptions per game (6.6), and third in receiving yardage per game (92.9 yards) on his way to sixth consecutive season with over 1,300 receiving yards.

The Seattle pass defense gave up the bulk of the fantasy production to X wideouts that worked on the left on the offense a year ago. Seattle was 29th in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 options in 2019 (17.8 points per game). They allowed just five touchdowns to those wideouts, but allowed a league-high 101 receptions to those wideouts and seven top-12 scoring weeks. That includes a 10-152-0 game to Jones himself on 12 targets in Week 8.

Calvin Ridley: The third-year wideout Ridley has only tallied 92 and 93 targets over his first two seasons in the league. Those 185 targets are good for 33rd among all wide receivers over that span, but Ridley has outproduced his early-career opportunity by ranking 25th in yards per target (9.1 yards), 17th in catch rate (68.6%), 22nd in overall PPR fantasy points scored and sixth in touchdown receptions (17).

Ridley averaged 17.8 PPR points per game over his six games played after Mohamed Sanu was traded, receiving 18.8% of the team targets after 15.3% of the team targets over his 23 career games prior.

Seattle was so giving versus lead wideouts that they did defend WR2 and the right side of the field well (where Ridley ran 58% of his routes) since Shaquill Griffin played 91% of his snaps at LCB a year ago. Griffin ranked 16th out of 87 corners in yards allowed per coverage snap a year ago. Ridley still posted a usable 4-70-0 line on seven targets when these teams played a year ago.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett has finished the past two seasons as the WR13 and WR16 in overall scoring and the WR23 and WR23 in PPR points per game. He averaged a career-high 5.1 receptions per game a year ago. Lockett picked up an ankle injury in Week 10 that forced him to play a season-low 71% of the snaps and have depressed output for the next month of the season. He then came back and finished strongly, leading the team with 41 targets (27.5%), 28 catches, and 381 yards while matching the team lead with three touchdowns over the final five games of the season for Seattle.

Lockett caught all six of his targets for 100 yards when these teams met a year ago. Atlanta has a number of questions still left on the back end with first-round rookie A.J. Terrell and second-year corner Isaiah Oliver (71-of-87 in yards allowed per coverage snap as a rookie) on perimeter. The team did add Darqueze Dennard to play the slot, who was strong in coverage (0.63 yards per coverage snap) during his nine games played a year ago. Lockett ran 69% of his routes from the slot a year ago.

D.K. Metcalf: Like a lot of rookie wideouts, Metcalf ramped up production as he became acclimated to the league. Through eight games, Metcalf was averaging 2.9 receptions on 5.6 targets (18% of the team share) for 50.3 yards per game. He had four or fewer receptions in all eight of those games. Over his final 10 games played, Metcalf averaged 4.6 receptions on 6.9 targets (21.6% of the team targets) for 71.7 yards per game with six or more receptions in six of those 10 games.

When Seattle is throwing the ball in the red zone, they are throwing it most often to their wide receivers. Metcalf led all NFL players with 18 end zone targets a year ago and had two touchdown scores against Atlanta a year ago that carried his 2-13-2 line. Metcalf ran 89% of his routes on the outside as a rookie, matching him up with Atlanta’s young boundary corners the most often.

Russell Gage: Gage averaged 7.3 targets per game, but just three of those nine games were with all of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Austin Hooper on the field in which he posted a combined 13-98-0 line. Averaging just 9.1 yards per catch and 6.0 yards per target, Gage is more of a bet against Hayden Hurst, but managed to grab 7-of-9 targets for 58 yards when these teams played a year ago.

Tight end

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is set to have his first real taste of opportunity in the NFL after being traded from the team that ran the fewest offensive passing plays in the league in Baltimore (467) to the team that ran the most in the league in Atlanta (735) a year ago. The Falcons targeted their tight ends 17.7% of the time and 9.0 times per game in 2019, while they have finished 13th or better in the league in success rate targeting their tight ends in each of the past four seasons. Hurst ranked first among all tight ends in success rate per target (67%) with 25 or more targets in 2019 and ranked 12th among all tight ends in yards per route run playing a limited role behind Mark Andrews last season.

Testing his usage increase for fantasy in Week 1, Hurst gets a matchup that was a target for us a year ago. Seattle was 31st in receptions allowed per game (6.1), 31st in yardage allowed (68.7 yards), and 27th in yards allowed per target to tight ends (7.96 yards) to the position a year ago. Atlanta tight ends secured 8-of-9 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown when these teams met a year ago.

The addition of Jamal Adams is a huge help in improving those numbers. Adams ranked 16th out of 65 qualifying safeties in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.31), but if Hurst can find himself in coverage with the Seattle linebackers, K.J. Wright allowed the third-most receptions in his coverage a year ago (70) while Bobby Wagner the eighth-most (58). Though Wright and Wagner had more coverage responsibilities than typical linebackers with how often the Seahawks used base defense last season.

SEA TEs: Seattle tight ends combined for 76-728-7 in 2019 with 10 end zone targets in 2019. Adding a 35-year-old Greg Olsen to go with Wolverine Will Dissly, we will have to see what sort of snap split the Seattle tight ends have. Will we see Dissly used as a package player in the red zone while Olsen works between the 20s or will Olsen just be the full TE1?. Atlanta was 13th in yards per target (7.1) and ninth in points allowed per target (1.66) to opposing tight ends in 2019.

More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: