2024 Pre-Draft Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Wide Receivers

We have already covered the quarterback, tight end, and running back rankings as we break down this incoming rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and even the potential these young players can have on the 2024 seasonal formats.

Even before the actual NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the NFL Combine has passed, we have a plethora of new athletic data on this upcoming rookie class. That information can be applied to athletic models and used to shape the full portfolio for prospects to go along with production profiles, which is a general overlay of what these players put on tape for NFL teams.

As we get more athletic testing data coming in via Pro Days, we will add notes here to those prospects.

However, overall, athletic testing has a low correlation to actual fantasy output. When it does, it is typically counted twice from a productive player in the first place.

But when a prospect has subpar athletic testing paired with a limited or nonexistent production resume, we are playing with fire when attempting to elevate or count on that player for NFL production.

Feel free to go back and check out the 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 versions of this article.

My ranks do not strictly follow my prospects models linearly.

I similarly use the prospect models as I do projection models for the NFL season. We are looking for immediate market inefficiencies in leagues where we are drafting rookies before the actual NFL draft.

This is an intriguing class set to provide an influx of talent at the position.

Overall, it is led by a triumvirate of front-end prospects who have as clean production profiles as you could ask for entering the league. We will immediately see all of the Tier 1 wide receivers in this class vault into WR1 consideration in Dynasty formats.

We will get into the volatility of this class along the way, but what makes this class so interesting is what comes after that initial group paired with a depressed draft season on the defensive side of the ball and at the running back position.

We are going to see a lot of wide receivers drafted in the top 100 picks this April.

This class has a lot more upside and pro arguments to make versus last year’s class.

That class did not have a wide receiver selected until pick No. 20 and had seven wide receivers selected in the top 60 picks.

This year, we should push to have three wide receivers selected inside of the top 10 while Mock Draft Database currently has 13 wide receivers in the top 60 sections.

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Tier 1 Rookie Wide Receivers

This class has some major firepower at the top from a profile perspective.

All three of these wide receivers have grades in the 94th percentile or higher in my prospect model.

No wide receiver class in that database (going back to 2000) has had that many in the same year.

Early expectations are that all three of these wideouts will be selected in the top 10 picks of the draft.

I do have this as a 1A and 1B situation with Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers with a clear No. 3 in Rome Odunze if we are talking about allocation of using rookie picks, but from a fantasy perspective, Odunze is far from drawing dead in terms of competing with other two.

Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State

Final Year Age: 21.4

Coming from premier NFL bloodlines at the position, Harrison Jr. posted back-to-back monster seasons at Ohio State, going for 1,295 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022 and then coming back for 1,237 yards and 15 touchdowns this past season when he was the Biletnikoff Award Winner and a Heisman finalist.

Harrison accounted for 30.0% of the Ohio State targets (WR4 in this class among D1 players), 41.2% of their air yards (WR3), and 53.9% of their receiving touchdowns (WR1).

His 3.44 yards per route run were second to only Nabers while his 2.99 yards per team pass attempt ranked fifth.

Harrison was one of just five prospects in this draft class to average over 3.0 yards per route run against both man coverage (3.03) and zone coverage (3.51).

When defenses did play man coverage against Ohio State this season, Harrison was targeted on 40.0% of his routes, which was the highest rate in this class.

20.0% of Harrison’s career receptions were touchdowns, the highest rate in this class.

What is noteworthy about Harrison is that he came back and posted all of that efficiency after C.J. Stroud left.

While the Buckeyes have been on a strong of putting quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL Draft, Harrison was excellent playing attached to Kyle McCord. McCord ranked 62nd in passing grade at Pro Football Focus in 2023 and transferred to Syracuse this spring when he was not guaranteed the starting gig in 2024.

The other two wideouts in this tier fared far better in quarterback attachment this past season as Jayden Daniels was third in passing grade and Michael Penix was ninth.

Harrison also has next to zero manufactured production in his profile.

Only 7.0% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage (26th in this class).

I view that as an overall positive, but this is the one area where Harrison draws the small amount of criticism he does when picking nits.

Harrison checked in at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds at the NFL Combine, but he did not participate in any physical testing.

Where Harrison is slightly dinged in scouting is tearing down his long speed and yards after the catch ability, which Nabers has in spades.

Harrison forced a missed tackle on just 7.5% of his receptions in 2023 (31st in the class).

26.3% of his targets in 2023 were contested catches, which was the fifth-highest rate in this class.

Despite that, Harrison did make strides after the catch in 2023 versus 2022. He averaged 6.4 yards after the catch this past season (WR14 in this class) after 4.2 yards after the reception per grab in 2022.

Although Nabers did a lot more in terms of forcing missed tackles, Harrison still did have 35.3% of his yardage in 2023 come after the reception, which was not far away from Nabers (37.6%).

I also believe Harrison is capable of doing more in terms of versatility in the NFL. He just was not asked to do a lot of it in this Ohio State offense.

I do not believe that is overly different from where people tore down Stroud’s ability to play off-script entering the league based on the limited sample of pressure he faced within the structure of this offense.

When Ohio State did task Harrison to win in unique ways, he completely dominated.

He only ran 19.3% of his routes from the slot last season, 24th in this class. But when Harrison did work from the inside out, he was targeted on 42.7% of those routes (WR2 in this class) and averaged a class-high 5.22 yards per route run from the slot.

If an NFL team wants to move Harrison around, I have next to no fear that he can win there.

I do have Harrison slightly ahead of Nabers based on a projection that he will be the first wide receiver taken in April.

If Harrison does end up going No. 4 overall to Arizona, that is an ideal landing spot for immediate production paired with a capable quarterback and a turnstile opportunity to lead the team in targets in Year 1.

The rest of the landing spots in the top 10 leave a lot more immediate question marks at quarterback (the Giants or Patriots if they pass on a quarterback) or playing alongside another WR1 (Atlanta, Chicago, and the Jets).

The Chargers are certainly a wild card component for teams not trading up, however. They have a front-end quarterback and no established receivers with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone.

We will revisit these top two wideouts post-draft and see where things shook out.

Malik Nabers, LSU

Final Year Age: 20.5

Nabers and Harrison are extremely close and both elite prospects.

We have seen these two compared to the year that A.J. Green and Julio Jones came into the league.

Nabers does not have multiple elite collegiate seasons (his 2022 was good but not as great) as Harrison does, but he is right in line with him in immediate projection.

The primary reason I do not have any beef having Nabers higher is that he already was used the way that the top receivers are winning in the NFL versus the current defensive meta.

If you look at the top receivers in production (which leads to fantasy points), we are no longer seeing the prototypical X receiver from yesteryear at the front of the leaderboards. We are seeing players that can win everywhere in all alignments.

Defenses are playing man coverage at an all-time low paired with more two-high coverage.

NFL offenses are forced to attack the middle of the field more than ever with the current approach to the game.

It is no surprise that we are seeing guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill crushing.

In 2023, 19 wide receivers averaged at least 15.0 PPR points per game.

The average slot rate for those wideouts was 28.9%. Only five of those 19 were below 20% while six of them were over 30%.

Even a player like Ja’Marr Chase logged a career-high 24.8% slot rate in 2023.

We had two rookies (Puka Nacua and Tank Dell) on that list that won that way in college.

The bottom line is that getting the football to your best wide receiver takes more game planning and diverse usage than ever before.

I believe Harrison will be able to win inside in the NFL, but he does take projection whereas Nabers did a lot of everything in the LSU offense.

From a top-down perspective, Nabers averaged a class-high 3.64 yards per route run and 3.81 yards per team pass attempt.

Nabers was second in this class among D1 prospects in target share (32.5%) and third in the share of receptions (31.1%) while playing alongside another wide receiver projected to be selected in the first round of this draft.

Nabers forced a missed tackle on 33.7% of his receptions (second in this class) while averaging 6.6 yards after the catch per reception (WR9).

He ran 52.9% of his routes from the slot, where he caught a class-high 12 touchdowns and averaged 4.35 yards per route run (third in this class).

He averaged 3.22 yards per route run against man coverage (WR7) and a class-high 4.42 yards per route against zone coverage.

Although Nabers did have access to more slot routes in college than Harrison did, do not make the mistake he was stacking output on free squares.

He only had 14 targets on screens. That 10.9% share of his season total was WR19 in this class.

Nabers had nine touchdowns on throws over 20 yards downfield, which was second in this class behind teammate Brian Thomas.

When tasked with clashing, Nabers caught 10-of-22 contested catches (45.6%) compared to Harrison snagging 13-of-30 (43.3%).

To top that all off, Nabers is the youngest wide receiver available in the draft.

He will not turn 21 years old until late July.

Nabers declined to do anything physically at the NFL Combine, but at his Pro Day, he checked in at 6-feet and 199 pounds.

He ran a 4.35 unofficial time in the 40-yard dash while logging a 94th-percentile explosion score in jumping drills.

Rome Odunze, Washington

Final Year Age: 21.6

In several previous seasons, Odunze would have been the clear WR1 in the class.

Odunze got better all four years at Washington, capped by a 2023 season in which he caught 92 balls for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding a rushing score for good measure.

Odunze’s 81.8 receiving yards per game over his college career rank first in this draft class among Division 1 prospects.

He played alongside two other wide receivers projected to be selected in this draft, still accounting for 26.2% of his team targets (WR8).

His 2.85 yards per team pass attempt was seventh in this draft class.

Odunze shredded man coverage for 3.75 yards per route run (third in this class) paired with 2.93 yards per route against zone (WR10).

Odunze is arguably the best vertical wide receiver between the three we have covered at the top, which is saying something.

Nobody in this class flashes “late hands” like he does.

Odunze can get open on his route-running ability, but he dominated when asked to win in contested situations despite not being forced to live on contested catches alone.

20.0% of his targets were contested catches in 2023, below the 26.3% rate for Harrison and above Nabers (17.2%).

On those contested targets, Odunze caught a staggering 21-of-28 (75.0%).

35.0% of Odunze’s targets came on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which was the fourth-highest rate in this class.

He had 15 more downfield targets than the next closest wide receiver in this class.

He played in the slot at a lower rate of his routes (17.5%) than both Harrison and Nabers did in college, but Odunze had more created production despite winning downfield more than the others.

19.6% of his receptions were screens compared to 15.7% for Nabers and 11.9% for Harrison.

Despite that, only 31.4% of Odunze’s yards came after the catch compared to 35.3% for Harrison and 37.6% for Nabers because he drew so many downfield targets.

His 2.58 yards per route run from the slot (WR14 in this class) were far off from the destruction that both Harrison (5.22 YRR) and Nabers (4.35 YRR) posted when given those opportunities.

All of that put together puts Odunze in a bucket of having more projection in winning everywhere in the NFL than the previous two, but he has true spades to start with.

Unlike both Harrison and Nabers, Odunze did physical testing at the NFL Combine and came out checking all of the boxes we wanted.

Coming in at 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds, he was one of the few receivers to participate in every drill, running a 4.45 forty (84th percentile speed score) while registering a 78th percentile explosion score in jumping drills and a 94th agility score.

Tier 2 Rookie Wide Receivers

Things are not as clean here as the first three wideouts, but all three of these next wide receivers have both strong production and physical profiles. There is a reason that all of them are projected to be selected with strong draft capital.

That said, this is an immediate tier drop.

There are also enough red flags here to make me pause in using a first-round pick in rookie drafts.

If I am on the clock and staring one of these wideouts down as the best player available, I would prefer to move down and take multiple swings on the depth of this class.

But we also should see a few of these guys land in ideal situations in the NFL, which could give them attachment to good quarterback play right out of the box.

Brian Thomas Jr, LSU

Final Year Age: 21.2

After catching 59 passes for 720 yards and seven touchdowns over his first two seasons at LSU, Thomas erupted in 2023 with 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Stuck behind Kayshon Boutte for those opening two seasons, Thomas is leaning on his gaudy 2023 campaign to carry his production profile.

53.5% of his catches, 62.1% of his yards, and 70.8% of his touchdowns came in his final season, rates that rank fourth, second, and second in this class.

With just one monster season on his resume, Thomas does draw some odder comparables as his top hits. Players such as Torrey Smith, Freddie Mitchell, and Jameson Williams are at the top of his hit list.

Thomas played with the Heisman Winner and alongside an all-world wideout that allowed Thomas to excel, which does at least place some trepidation that his 2023 was lightning in a bottle.

Nabers took all of the creative usage in this offense last season, which allowed Thomas to eat on the outside and downfield.

Thomas was only targeted on 19.3% of his routes, which was 34th in this draft class.

Only 13.3% of the routes that Thomas ran came from the slot, 30th in this class.

68.2% of the receptions Thomas had were on throws 20 or more yards downfield, fourth in this class.

He led all of college football with 12 touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

He also led all of college football last season in yardage (577) and touchdowns (13) gained on only go, post, and fade routes per Sports Into Solutions.

We are still looking for more body of work that Thomas can win everywhere on the field, but the overall package is alluring.

Thomas is a former four-star recruit who had offers to Alabama, Florida, and Auburn. He was heavily recruited.

He also has a physical profile that teams will pursue and reinforces his downfield production at the college level.

At 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds, Thomas ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He also posted an 82nd-percentile explosion score in the jumping drills.

Troy Franklin, Oregon

Final Year Age: 20.9

Franklin made consistent jumps in production over his three seasons at Oregon, closing out this past season with 81 catches for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns.

He went from 11.6 to 14.6 and 17.1 yards per reception over his tenure.

Franklin averaged 3.32 yards per route run this past season, trailing only Nabers and Harrison.

His 2.71 yards per team pass attempt ranked eighth in this class.

Only three wide receivers in this draft class are younger than Franklin.

All of that provides some strong signals for Franklin being a productive pro player.

So, are there any hang-ups?

We have brought up how the Oregon environment boosted both Bo Nix and Bucky Irving’s production in the profiles we covered already. That should also apply some grains of salt here for the overall counting stats that Franklin posted.

Franklin does come with a few elements that provide him with some comparables that could scare gamers.

His top hits from an objective production and physical profile stance are Paul Richardson, Jalin Hyatt, and Jameson Williams. The latter two still have more to be written in the NFL, but all (pun intended) still have meat left on the bone.

Franklin is a leaner (6-foot-2 and 176 pounds) profile that did not check out as fast-fast for his size at the NFL Combine.

Only five wide receivers were lighter than Franklin at the Combine.  The three that ran at the Combine all were faster than Franklin, whose 4.41 time in the 40-yard dash was 10th in this class.

Because of his weight, that time was only good for a 27th percentile speed score.

Franklin picked up some ground with a 77th percentile explosion score, but also managed a 15th percentile agility score as one of the few wideouts that did participate in those drills.

Franklin’s initial stock has dropped a bit since we opened the offseason, but he is still expected to be a top-40 overall pick in this class if he does not slip into the back end of the opening round.

Franklin also had a 7.9% drop rate in 2023, which ranks 34th in this class. His nine dropped passes per Pro Football Focus were the most in the class last season.

Xavier Worthy, Texas

Final Year Age: 20.7

Worthy hit the ground running at Texas.

As an 18-year-old freshman in 2021, Worthy caught 62 passes for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He caught at least 60 passes in all three seasons in college, His 5.1 receptions per game over his career rank sixth in this class.

Worthy did give up some ground in 2023 with Adonai Mitchell joining the team as his only production wart.

His 2.14 yards per route run in 2023 rank 28th in this class.

He scored fewer touchdowns than the season prior in all three years at Texas. His breakout score is one of the best in this class, but his final season production score is one of the weakest.

A few other college prospects who had similar drop-offs in the discrepancy between entry and exit are Jalen Reagor and Marqise Lee, players with similar draft capital as projected for Worthy.

And no player helped himself more than Worthy at the NFL Combine, who ran a 4.21 time in the 40-yard dash, the fastest time for a wide receiver ever.

The NFL has shown that they will draft speed.

And even as someone who likes the context of what speed score provides, 4.21 is still 4.21.

Now, the fastest wide receivers have not been huge fantasy hits.

The other wideouts that have run sub 4.30 times in the 40 at the Combine in the 2000s are John Ross, Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward–Bey, Marquise Goodwin, Henry Ruggs, Stephen Hill, Tyquan Thornton, Trindon Holliday, J.J. Nelson, Johnny Knox, and Mike Wallace.

We are working with one player hitting from that group in Wallace.

To give Worthy some credit, most of those players had next to no college production. They were just fast.

Ross was the lone wideout here with decorated production coming into the league.

Worthy also backed up that juice in straight-line speed by posting a 95th percentile explosion score, posting a 41-inch vertical and a 10-foot-11-inch broad jump.

We know we are working with an explosive player.

What hurts Worthy overall, though, is banking on his physical profile outside of his speed.

He is small at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds.

Worthy did average 16.9 yards per punt return this past season but lacks the rushing profile out of college that we saw in someone like Tyreek Hill, who would be the pie-in-the-sky, hopium-fueled comparison here.

Worthy’s 31-inch arms are in the 21st percentile at the position while his 8 ¾-inch hands are in the sixth percentile.

This shows up in his on-field results as Worthy only pulled in 5-of-21 contested catches (23.8%) in 2023, which ranked 31st in this draft class.

He also only converted 1-of-11 red zone targets for touchdowns.

34.7% of Worthy’s 2023 receptions were screen passes, which was seventh in this class.

The hope is that with his speed, Worthy will not have to live in that capacity at the next level, but he does fall into a bucket of prospects that has a wide range of outcomes and a low hit rate for major fantasy production.

Tier 3 Rookie Wide Receivers

These next two tiers are the pocket of the position that I believe is the most intriguing element of this draft class.

We have three uber-prospects anchoring the perception of this draft as being an elite one at the position followed by a group that we typically see in any given year that is comprised of prospects that are athletic and productive.

Then we have this group, which is made up of largely unproductive players who are carrying draft inflation based on projection.

All of these wideouts are anticipated to have tangible draft capital on Day 2 of the draft while we could see a few of these players even push the back end of the opening round.

This is why the position is considered deep by many, but let’s not beat around the bush here. The production profiles from this group are fragile at best, and more so than were typically do see from wideouts projected to receive their expected draft investment.

This is why I also believe that the way I want to play this group in rookie drafts (and even early best ball drafts) is by getting multiple bites of the apple from these next two tiers of wideouts. In the majority of outcomes, I would prefer to have 2-3 of these wideouts over one of the three wideouts from the previous tier.

I believe we are going to see some real busts here, but I also believe that the hits from these groups are going to be significant when they do pop.

Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Final Year Age: 22.2

No wide receiver in this draft class has a larger discrepancy in high-end profile paired with a lack of on-field production to support it than Mitchell.

You have to scour the furthest corners of the draft Earth to find a scouting profile that does not love Mitchell.

He is almost universally projected to push the first round of the draft and could even be drafted ahead of Franklin and Worthy, who he played alongside this past season.

If true, then Mitchell can land in a premier destination for opportunity paired with a good quarterback and a good team.

Mitchell also looks the part.

At the NFL Combine, Mitchell checked in at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, posting a 96th speed score and a 99th percentile explosion score.

He started at Georgia and was a four-star recruit.

On paper, this is a guy who should have a treasure trove of production in college, but that is not the case.

Mitchell is often compared to CeeDee Lamb in terms of movement skills, but his profile could not be further from Lamb’s leaving college.

Mitchell’s 2.7 career receptions per game rank 29th in this class.

His 40.1 career yards per game rank 31st.

Mitchell is one of just two wide receivers in this class to never have a season in which he averaged 2.0 yards per route run.

In 2023, his 1.72 yards per route run was ahead of just one wide receiver in this class.

For a wideout that is declared as consistently open, Mitchell’s 1.08 yards per route run against man coverage in 2023 was 35th in this class.

Whereas Lamb was a demon after the catch and working from the slot in college, Mitchell’s 3.2 yards after the catch per reception in 2023 were ahead of only two wide receivers in this class.

Mitchell only ran 18.1% of his routes from the slot last season, but his 0.78 yards per route run from the slot were second-to-last in this class.

Now, the case can be made that all of the Texas pass catchers cannibalized each other paired with the Longhorns having a great running game.

We already mentioned that Worthy saw a dip in performance this past season compared to his first two seasons.

Texas also has Jordan Whittington in this class at wide receiver, and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders is projected to be a second-round pick as well. All of those players had over 40 receptions and over 500 receiving yards in 2023.

It is harder to measure properly layering that into the fold here because it was not an issue for Rome Odunze while both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas produced together.

Paired with Mitchell leaving Georgia after being out-produced by both Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, things are just as cloudy as to why Mitchell did not have better on-field results that marry his perceived talent level.

Mitchell was tasked with being the lid lifter for Texas. He did not receive a lot of free squares in the offense.

We already highlighted his low rate of routes from the slot.

His 16.0 air yards per target were the fifth highest in this class.

Just three of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage.

While Mitchell lacks the top-down production profile to match his scouting projection, not all of it is bad.

He was great at finding the end zone.

19.4% of his career receptions went for scores, second in this class behind only Marvin Harrison Jr.

Mitchell played in eight games that were Conference Championships or Bowl Games over his three years in college.

He only went over 50 yards in one of those games, but he scored six touchdowns in those games.

This past season at Texas, Mitchell converted 50% (8-of-16) of his red zone targets for touchdowns, which was third among all prospects in this class that had double-digit red zone looks last season.

Mitchell also was credited with just one dropped pass on 103 targets over the past two seasons, the lowest rate in this class.

Xavier Legette, South Carolina

Final Year Age: 22.9

Legette is far from a complete product, but his 2023 production paired with being one of the few great physical profiles in this class will steer his draft capital and potential upside in his range of outcomes.

The first thing is that Legette was a major fifth-year breakout.

He had 71 catches for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023 after catching only 42 passes for 423 yards and five touchdowns over his first four seasons at South Carolina.

That alone is a major red flag for a player who is the “oldest” wideout we have touched on to this point.

We have to be honest and question that if it were not for the added eligibility based on COVID, would Legette even have been invited to the NFL Combine or on anyone’s radar?

Whereas 62.1% of Brian Thomas‘ career output came in 2023, 74.5% of Legette’s career yardage came last season.

Thomas did that in his third season at age 20.

Legette was in his fifth year at age 22.

His development in college took a weird road as he was primarily only a kick returner up until last season, converting from high school quarterback. Legette was a baseball recruit as well, so we know there is athleticism here.

That showed up in his on-field production, where at times he looked like a DK Metcalf-esque clone in the SEC.

Legette showed up at the NFL Combine at 6-foot-1 and 221 pounds. The only other wideout in this class heavier than him was Johnny Wilson.

At that size, Legette ran a 4.39 forty. That was good for a 98th percentile speed score and is fast even without being adjusted for size.

The questions for Legette surround how rigid he is, and we did not see him do agility drills at the Combine or his Pro Day.

We should expect a player with Legette’s physical profile paired with his age to crush in college to a degree, but he also did, so we should not completely throw it out with the bathwater.

His 3.15 yards per route run was eighth in this class.

Legette accounted for a class-high 44.8% of the South Carolina air yards.

While his stature would suggest that he just ran by defenders on the perimeter, Legette ran 34.4% of his routes from the slot, where his 3.23 yards per route run was seventh in this class.

Against man coverage. Legette posted a class-high 4.0 yards per route run.

Legette will take continued refinement in the NFL, but his overall size and production profile have more upside than other wideouts in this class.

Ladd McConkey, Georgia

Final Year Age: 22.1

McConkey has done nothing but climb all offseason after showing out at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine.

The raw stats are not gaudy.

McConkey’s 3.1 career receptions per game rank 25th in this class.

His 43.3 career receiving yards per game rank 27th.

He had just two career games with 100 yards receiving.

That said, things look better and follow the scouting profiles when going under the hood.

McConkey broke out with 58 catches for 762 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, adding another two rushing scores.

While the raw stats were not jaw-dropping, those touchdown grabs matched Brock Bowers for a team-high while he only trailed Bowers in yardage. The next closest wide receiver to McConkey on the roster in yardage was Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint at 337 yards.

Coming off that spike, McConkey was limited to only 30 catches for 478 yards and three touchdowns in 2023, playing in only nine games due to back and ankle injuries.

While those injuries capped his output overall, the underlying metrics for McConkey in 2023 were still strong.

He averaged 3.26 yards per route run, which trailed only Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Troy Franklin in this draft class among D1 prospects.

His 4.27 yards per route against zone coverage were second in this class to only Nabers.

McConkey forced a missed tackle on 30.0% of his receptions, which was seventh in this class. Nabers is the only wide receiver we have covered to this point with a higher rate.

Elusiveness and fluid movement are the calling cards for McConkey. He puts guys in a blender regularly within routes and with the football in his hands.

After garnering praise at the Senior Bowl, McConkey showed up to the NFL Combine and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash while logging a 65th percentile explosion score.

If anything does hold McConkey back from front-end production versus leaning on play-by-play efficiency as he did in college is that his physical profile is still slightly below the marks we look for WR1 output.

At 5-foot-11 and 186 pounds, McConkey also had shorter arms (30.25 inches) and smaller hands (8.75 inches) than Xavier Worthy. Those rank in the eighth and fourth percentile.

McConkey draws comparisons to Puka Nacua from a year ago due to his route running and sprinkle of rushing production, but Nacua was also 201 pounds at the Combine while his wingspan was larger with 31.5-inch arms and 9.5-inch hands.

Another player that McConkey is compared to at the higher end is Cooper Kupp.

Kupp was 6-foot-2 and 204 pounds at the Combine with 31.5-inch arms and 9.5-inch hands.

McConkey’s size may archetype him into a slot role in the NFL, but he can thrive there.

He only ran 21.6% of his routes from the slot last season, but he averaged a gaudy 3.59 yards per route run lined up inside (sixth in this class).

He was also targeted on 31.3% of his routes from the slot, which was third in the class.

But McConkey’s route-running gives him outs to win on the perimeter as well.

He averaged 4.57 yards per route run as an isolated receiver per Sports Info Solutions.

He may not have the outright ceiling as other wideouts within this tier, but I do believe McConkey fits where offenses are winning in today’s NFL. That could provide a pipeline to a higher ceiling of counting stats at the next level. At worst, it should provide him with a higher safety net from bricking.

Keon Coleman, Florida State

Final Year Age: 20.6

Coleman is one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft class.

He has a lacking production profile, but his projected draft capital, age, and high-end range of outcomes cannot be ignored.

While it feels like Coleman has slipped a bit during the process to this point, nearly everyone still has him projected to be selected inside of the top 40 while flirting with the first-round and top-five picks at his position.

Daniel Jeremiah is one of the few out there who are operating with some minor trepidation versus the field. He has Coleman as the WR10 in this draft class.

After a 58-798-7 line at Michigan State in 2022, Coleman transferred to Florida State this past season, catching 50 passes for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Like the other wideouts we have covered within this tier, overall production is lacking.

His 3.3 career receptions per game rank 21st in this class.

His 44.3 career yards per game are 24th.

He also was outperformed by teammate Johnny Wilson, who is projected to be selected later on.

On the positive end, 16.5% of Coleman’s career receptions went for touchdowns, which is ninth in this class.

The splash plays from Coleman are a siren’s song.

Like Xavier Legette, Coleman’s size is a rarity in this draft class.

At 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds, Coleman is one of the prototype builds in this draft class that NFL scouts have chased.

We already highlighted with Malik Nabers that the NFL is transitioning away from that prototype X receiver leading their passing game, which is where the questions arise with Coleman.

He does not have the underlying efficiency and diverse usage that Legette had nor the overwhelming objective physical profile paired with his size.

Coleman struggled to create open targets in college.

34.5% of his targets in 2023 were contested catches, the highest rate in this class.

Even when Florida State attempted to get him creative opportunities to be uncovered in the slot, that held up.

Coleman ran 27.9% of his routes from the slot (20th in this class), but 11 of his 23 targets from the slot were also contested catches (47.8%).

The added bummer is that Coleman also only converted 10-of-30 (33.3%) of those contested catches (3-of-11 from the slot), which was 29th in this class.

Whereas Legette had a class-high 4.0 yards per route run against man coverage, Coleman’s 1.82 yards per route run ranked 27th.

43.7% of Coleman’s targets came against man coverage as well, the highest rate in this class.

He averaged 2.57 yards per route run (29th in the class) when lined up as an isolated receiver.

To compound matters, his 1.65 yards per route run against zone coverage ranked 35th.

Another weird component is that the team struggled to get Coleman the football successfully.

36.0% of his receptions were screen passes last season.That was the fourth-highest rate of screen-dependency in this class. The three players above him all profile as jitterbugs and YAC-forward players to begin with.

Coleman is not going to get fed those in the NFL.

Given that the NFL is playing less man coverage and forcing wideouts to win in versatile ways, it is hard to find a calling card for Coleman at the next level, especially since his production against man coverage was also underwhelming.

The good news is that Coleman has a lot of development still ahead of him.

Only Nabers is younger than Coleman among the wideouts in this class. Coleman will turn only 21 years old this May.

His usage and quarterback play can also be highlighted as a potential part of the problem.

As a downfield target, 27.6% of Coleman’s targets were on throws 20 or more yards downfield (eighth) but he only converted 33.3% (35th) as only 13 of those targets (38.5%) were catchable.

Tier 4 Rookie Wide Receivers

Originally, I had these wideouts included in one larger tier with the group above.

But with the first group having projected draft capital that is consistently above this group, it made sense to split them up into two.

That said, that is how close some of these players can be to the previous group.

This draft has plenty of potential arbitrage opportunities, which is why the depth of the class is considered a strength.

This part of the class also is made up of more of the “my guys” from this class.

Others surely will like these players and have them high in rankings, but throwing out linear lists and ranks, these are all guys that I outright like as players more than their projected draft capital.

Ideally, I want to get a couple of these guys in every rookie draft, especially if any can push the projected draft capital from the group above.

Ricky Pearsall, Florida

Final Year Age: 23.3

Pearsall is a popular player among both scouting and evidence-based analysts.

There is a non-zero shot that he is arbitrage on Ladd McConkey, who is projected to go higher in the draft.

He also does not have a massively glowing production profile but has solid underlying output that makes him more appealing than the first impression his counting stats provide.

After three years at Arizona State, Pearsall transferred to Florida where he led the team in receiving yardage in each of the past two seasons.

Yes, his 661 yards in 2022 led the team because of the limitations that the passing game had.

But Pearsall still averaged a robust 20.0 yards per grab in that 2022 season playing with Anthony Richardson.

His 80.4 receiving yards per game this past season were 18th in this class, but his 30.9% share of Florida receiving yards was ninth, providing added context to some of the top-down passing games he was a part of.

Pearsall was 12th in this class in yards per team pass attempt (2.44) in 2023 despite ranking 27th in yards per route run (2.23).

Overall, Pearsall lacks a rock-solid production profile, but it feels very similar to Jayden Reed from a year ago when he just appeared a lot better than his environment.

Like Reed, Pearsall has a wide range of usage on top of being a receiver.

He returned punts in 2023.

He rushed for 253 yards and five touchdowns over his college career.

When tasked to punch up, Pearsall had the most receiving yards (99) allowed in a game by Georgia this past season.

Pearsall can win in the slot right away in the NFL.

He ran 56.3% of his routes from the slot in 2023, where he caught 66.2% of his receptions and posted 58.1% of his receiving yards. Those rates were 10th and 15th in this class.

At the NFL Combine, Pearsall checked in similarly to McConkey.

At 6-foot-1 and 189 pounds, Pearsall ran a 4.41 40-yard dash while posting a 93rd explosion score and an 89th percentile agility score.

Like McConkey, Pearsall also has a smaller build.

His 31-inch arms are in the 18th percentile for his position while his 9.25-inch hands are 24th percentile.

Those limitations did not prevent him from making spectacular grabs but were part of why they needed to be aesthetically wowing.

The questions for Pearsall are similar to McConkey, but the latter has an objectively strong profile winning outside of the slot and as an isolation receiver.

Pearsall was only targeted on 21.7% of his routes against man coverage (WR24 in this class) while his 2.28 yards per route run ranked 18th.

That could be quarterback-related, but that is a part of why McConkey will be regarded as a safer pick and selected earlier.

Pearsall also was targeted on just 16.9% of his routes when lined up as an isolated receiver per SIS. Those routes only made up 15.0% of his opportunities, but it was the lowest target per route rate as an isolated receiver in this class.

Devontez Walker, North Carolina

Final Year Age: 22.5

After a 58-921-11 receiving season (with a rushing touchdown) at Kent State in 2022, Walker transferred to North Carolina where he caught 41 passes for 699 yards and seven touchdowns in only eight games played.

His 87.4 receiving yards per game in 2023 ranked 11th in this class.

He was smart in attaching himself to an established quarterback in this class such as Drake Maye, but Walker has that strong season at Kent State on his resume.

While at Kent State in 2022, he even had a 7-106-1 game against Georgia, aided by the strength of a 56-yard touchdown catch and run.

We know what we have in Walker as a vertical playmaker and splash-play machine.

Walker may only have a few tricks up his sleeve entering the NFL, but the ones he does have are spades.

His 16.8 yards per reception for his collegiate career rank sixth in this class.

On 20 career touchdowns, the average length of those scores for 30.7 yards.

In 2023, he averaged 18.2 air yards per target, which was second in this class.

34.9% of Walker’s targets were on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which was the fifth-highest rate in this class.

He had just two targets behind the line of scrimmage.

Walker ran just 7.2% of his routes from the slot, the second-lowest rate of this class.

All of that explosiveness was reinforced at the NFL Combine.

At 6-foot-1 and 193 pounds, Walker ran a 4.36 40-yard dash and posted a 98th percentile explosion score in jumping drills with a 40.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-2 broad jump.

Walker also has 33.25-inch arms, which are in the 88th percentile.

The question for Walker at the next level is if he can be more than that lid lifter in an offense.

He did not answer those questions by skipping agility drills at the Combine.

Because Walker was largely only used in one capacity as a field stretcher, he averaged only 2.8 yards after the catch per reception. That was the second-lowest rate in the class.

Just 16.2% of his receiving yards came after the catch in 2023, the lowest rate of this class.

Walker also forced a missed tackle on 4.9% of his receptions, fourth from the bottom of this class.

Roman Wilson, Michigan

Final Year Age: 22.5

Wilson is another wideout who made massive strides in his final season after Ronnie Bell left for the NFL.

Wilson caught 48 passes for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023 after maxing out with a high of 25 catches and 420 yards in a season over his first three years at Michigan. Over those first three seasons, Wilson had 10 total touchdowns.

While the counting stats here are not going to blow anyone away due to the restrictive nature of the Michigan passing game, there is a lot to like because of it as well.

I brought this up when breaking down J.J. McCarthy, but even though Michigan did not throw a lot or have to throw in the second half of many games, there also were not many empty-calorie opportunities when they did pass.

Wilson was the WR14 in this class in yards per route run (2.68) and 15th in yards per team pass attempt (2.19).

Wilson had just one target off a screen pass while doing major lifting on targets that we like.

He caught 50% of his team touchdowns, second to only Marvin Harrison Jr. last season among D1 wideouts in this class.

19.4% of his targets came inside of the red zone, which was third in this class.

There, he converted seven of those 13 targets (53.9%) for scores, which was the highest rate for anyone in this class with double-digit red zone opportunities.

26.9% of his targets were on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which ranked 10th in this class.

On those targets, Wilson caught 66.7% (12-of-18), fourth in this class.

Wilson was also only credited with one drop on his 67 targets (1.5%).

While the Michigan passing tree allowed Wilson to showcase his upside on those targets that we covet in fantasy football, it did limit him in other areas just like we walked through above with Walker.

His 4.6 yards after the catch ranked 31st in this class while forcing a missed tackle on just 4.2% of his receptions, second to last in this class.

At the NFL Combine, Wilson ran a 4.39 time in the 40 to elevate his draft stock, although he did not do any other physical testing outside of running.

Wilson is a bit of a tweener, which makes it harder to lock into a true archetype next level.

But at 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, he is a bit smaller than Walker. Whereas Walker had long arms, Wilson was in the 10th percentile with 30.5-inch arms.

Javon Baker, UCF

Final Year Age: 21.9

Baker is a former Alabama prospect.

But after he was unable to leapfrog the depth chart in two seasons there, he transferred to UCF where he caught over 50 passes in each of the past two seasons.

In 2023, he secured 52 receptions for 1,139 yards and seven touchdowns.

He is the youngest wideout from this pocket and the most productive in the advanced production department.

Baker averaged 3.21 yards per route run in 2023, which was fifth in this class.

Only five wide receivers averaged over 3.0 yards per route run against both man and zone coverage in 2023 and one was Baker. He was eighth in this class in yards per route against man coverage (3.18) and seventh against zone coverage (3.14).

His 3.09 yards per team pass attempt ranked third.

Where Baker made his bread in the UCF offense was downfield.

He averaged 17.1 air yards per target (fourth in this class) while 35.3% of his targets came on throws 20 or more yards downfield (third).

Baker’s 15 receptions on those downfield targets trailed only Odunze and Nabers in this class.

Baker is bigger than both Walker and Wilson at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, giving him a size edge, but also was a worse measurable athlete, which will provide some questions on being able to win next level in the same capacity that he did in college.

Baker ran a 4.54 40-yard time, which was a 33rd-percentile score for his size. He also posted a 54th percentile explosion score in jumping drills while bypassing any agility drills.

Tier 5 Rookie Wide Receivers

We are now removed from the front of the class and are heading into the back half of the group.

This is the largest tier we have.

Most everyone here comes with lower odds of hitting, but there are several wideouts expected to be selected at the tail end of Day 2 and Day 3 that still have intriguing profiles.

Even for the players that currently have draft capital that is projected on the lower end, a lot of that is due to the depth of this class in general.

There are still solid profiles in this part of this class that would be higher in previous seasons within the context of the position of other classes.

Johnny Wilson, Florida State

Final Year Age: 22.7

After 897 yards and five touchdowns in his first season at Florida State in 2022, Wilson took a step back this past season, catching 41 passes for 617 yards and two touchdowns.

Despite the dip, in a lot of areas, Wilson was the most productive wide receiver at Florida State while playing alongside a wide receiver who is projected to flirt with being a top-50 pick and potentially getting into the first round.

That should not be ignored.

Wilson was 19th in this class in yards per route run (2.42) while Keon Coleman was 35th (1.74).

Wilson was targeted on 27.5% of his routes run (sixth in this class) while Coleman was targeted on 22.9% (23rd).

Like Coleman, Wilson was forced to live on a diet of contested targets.

He trailed only Coleman in the rate of targets being contested catches (31.4%), but he converted at a higher rate (40.9%).

Wilson ran 44.7% of his routes as an isolated receiver (Coleman was at just 11.9%), which was the second-highest rate in this class.

On those routes, Wilson averaged 4.25 yards per route (WR14) while Coleman averaged only 2.67 (WR28) on his limited sample playing as an isolated receiver.

Where Wilson stands out (literally) is his unique size.

He showed up at the NFL Combine measuring in at 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds, sporting 35.5-inch arms and 10-inch hands.

His size is also what makes it hard to project at the next level.

Is he too big to be a diverse wide receiver while being too light to be a consistent tight end?

Wilson did log an impressive speed score adjusted for his size when he ran a 4.52 time in the forty, but that is still a speed that is not going to win outside in the NFL.

There have been some whispers about Wilson playing tight end in the NFL and making a transition like Darren Waller, but that has been a road that has not yielded much fantasy fruit and is tricky to pursue.

Waller and Delanie Walker are the success stories in that area while it is a thin path to becoming Marques Colston.

We did the same thing with Chase Claypool coming out of Notre Dame.

Claypool did turn in an impressive rookie season but has never been able to find footing or relevancy in an offense since.

I am keeping the lights on for Wilson because he is such a unique prospect, but unfortunately, that is likely more of a bug rather than a feature for the majority of NFL offenses to figure out.

Malik Washington, Virginia

Final Year Age: 23.0

After catching 120 passes for 1,348 yards and three touchdowns over four seasons at Northwestern, Washington transferred to Virginia this past season where he went gangbusters.

Washington led the nation with 110 receptions, turning them into 1,426 yards and nine touchdowns.

Washington posted 97 or more yards in each of his final 11 games of the season with 10 100-yard games over that span.

He was the Virginia passing game, accounting for a class-high 38.3% of the team targets and 44.8% of the team receptions.

The next highest D1 wide receiver in the share of team receptions for this class was at 31.4%.

Like Legette, there is no doubt that the added eligibility rules aided Washington, but he is a lot of fun. He looks like a bowling ball out there playing wide receiver.

Washington forced a missed tackle on 31.5% of his receptions, fourth in this class.

He can also get open.

He only ran 10.0% of his routes as an isolated receiver, but his 5.80 yards per route run on those targets were the highest for any receiver with a 10% rate or higher.

Washington also was able to collect 11-of-17 (64.7%) contested targets, which was fifth in this class.

Now, comes the bad news outside of being a fifth-year breakout.

Whereas we talked about how McConkey and Pearsall will thrive in the slot but will moonlight on the outside as well, Washington is a pure slot player.

87.9% of his routes were from the slot in 2023.

21.0% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage (eighth in this class).

At 5-foot-8, he is just not going to earn snaps on the perimeter in the NFL.

Washington is thick his size (191 pounds) like a running back. I have comped him as “the Maurice Jones-Drew of slot receivers”.

He is also explosive.

His 42.5-inch vertical was tied for the highest in this class.

But he also needs every inch of that vertical to match the height of other wideouts.

While a ton of fun and a player I will throw late-round picks at if he ends up in a favorable setting, there is no doubt that Washington will have to be a volume-driven fantasy player, which is tough to bank on with his overall size.

Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky

Final Year Age: 21.8

Corley is the one player here that we are expecting to garner some viable draft capital based on projections.

He has three consecutive seasons with at least 70 receptions at Western Kentucky while posting 1,295 yards and 984 yards receiving with 11 touchdowns in each of the past two years.

Only one player in this draft has more career receptions than Corley does.

Corley is a brickhouse at 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds.

We have already heard lofty comparisons to Deebo Samuel because the plan in the offense was to just give Corely the football and let him bulldoze defenders.

69.4% of Corley’s yardage last season came after the catch, by far the highest rate in this class.

Corley averaged 8.6 yards after the catch per reception, the most in this class.

Chasing the “next Deebo” has not been fruitful for teams.

People seem to forget that Samuel showcased skills playing wide receiver firsthand, which is what got him drafted highly and what separates him from those trying to carbon his impact. The key to Samuel’s success is that defenses have to account for Samuel winning first as a wide receiver, which makes his special sauce of diverse ability so much better.

That is the question we have with Corley.

Corley’s counting stats were aided by the environment he played in.

Over the past three seasons, Western Kentucky has averaged 41.7, 45.2, and 50.9 pass attempts per game, which were sixth, third, and second in the country.

He was the WR8 in this class in targets in 2023 and the WR7 in receptions, but playing in a pass-heavy offense, his 22.3% target share was WR18 in this class while his 22.9% share of team receptions was WR15.

He was 25th in yards per team pass attempt (1.82).

Only 2.8% of Corley’s routes were as an isolated receiver, the second-lowest rate in this class.

Corley’s 5.5 air yards per target were the lowest in this class.

36.5% of his targets were on screens, the highest rate in this class.

The next closest player was at 26.7%.

53.2% of his receptions this past season came on screens. The next closest player was at 40.0%.

He had a class-high 36 targets behind the line of scrimmage.

51.4% of Corley’s career catches in college came on screens, the highest rate in this class.

This is what makes him so tough to project.

The size is there, but players that have lived on this level of a diet of manufactured production have been tricky bets.

If Corley is drafted in the third round or better, he will have the highest rate of screen receptions for a prospect with that type of investment.

The next players on that list are Anthony Schwartz, Wan’Dale Robinson, ArDarius Stewart, Amari Rodgers, and Kadarius Toney.

It also makes the conversation between Corley and Washington an interesting one because Washington did win as a receiver first.

While Corley will be treated as a rugged runner with the ball, Washington also broke more tackles than Corley did.

Washington led all of college with 35 forced missed tackles on receptions. Corley had 15.

While Corley did weigh in at the NFL Combine, he declined to do any other physical testing.

When Corley did run routes downfield, 60% (9-of-15) of his targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield were contested catches, the highest rate of contested catches on those types of targets in this draft class.

Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington

Final Year Age: 21.7

After catching 74 passes for 1,072 yards and nine touchdowns over his first three years in college, Polk had 69 receptions for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns (with an added rushing score) in 2023.

The questions that will shroud Polk will be that late breakout paired with playing in one of the best passing offenses in the country. Just how much of it was going along for the ride?

25.9% of Polk’s targets last season came on throws 20 or more yards downfield (11th in the class) while he caught 14 of those targets (sixth).

Like his teammate Rome Odunze, Polk was reliable in contested catch situations, securing 13-of-24 (54.2%) contested targets.

While Polk did live on a lot of work downfield, he also showed more ability in space than someone who received so many deep targets.

Polk forced a missed tackle on 21.7% of his receptions (12th in this class).

Polk has a solid frame (6-foot-1 and 203 pounds), so if that ability to break tackles translates then it provides added outs should he fail to win downfield in the NFL like he did in college.

He ran a 4.52 time in the 40-yard dash (43rd percentile) but did make up ground by logging an 86th-percentile explosion score in the jumping drills.

Jalen McMillan, Washington

Final Year Age: 22.1

McMillan is the other piece of the Washington triumvirate.

After a breakout in 2022 with 79 catches for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns, McMillan took a step back with 45 catches for 559 yards and five scores this past season.

McMillan battled a knee issue for the duration of the season, which played a role in his depressed output and allowed some of the runways that Polk capitalized on.

McMillan was limited to only 240 pass routes last season. Only three wide receivers in this draft class ran fewer.

Playing through injury, his 2.30 yards per route run still edged out Polk (2.29) and was in line with his 2022 production (2.32 YRR).

McMillan operated as nearly a full-time slot player at Washington.

He ran a class-high 90.8% of his routes from the slot which accounted for 86.7% of his receptions and 88.4% of his yardage.

Despite playing heavily in the slot, McMillan has a sturdy physical profile.

McMillan has good size (6-foot-1 and 197 pounds with 10-inch hands) and ran a faster time (4.47) than Polk did at the NFL Combine.

McMillan also was impressive in jumping drills, posting an 80th-percentile explosion score.

Brenden Rice, USC

Final Year Age: 21.8

We have the son of another Hall of Fame wideout in this class.

Rice does not come with the expectations of Marvin Harrison Jr. nor is he expected to fill the shadow cast by his father’s production, but he does have a solid profile.

Rice posted 2.75 yards per route run in 2023, which was good for 13th in this class.

In some ways, Rice could end up as a discounted version of Roman Wilson.

He earned a similar source of targets with not much fluff between red zone and downfield targets.

18.9% of Rice’s college catches went for touchdowns, third in this class behind Harrison Jr. and Adonai Mitchell.

21.4% of his targets came inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the class.

He had just four targets behind the line of scrimmage this past season while 28.6% of his targets came on throws 20 or more yards downfield (sixth).

Rice also was the man-coverage beater at USC.

He was targeted on 34.1% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to a 20.8% rate against zone coverage. No other wideout in this class had a larger gap in target rate against man versus zone.

42.9% of his targets came against man coverage, second to only Keon Coleman in this class.

The difference between Rice and Coleman is Rice ranked 10th in the class with 2.97 yards per route run against man coverage.

At 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds, Rice has size but did fall short in posting elite physical attributes by running a 4.50 40-yard dash and posting a 34th-percentile explosion score.

Jermaine Burton, Alabama

Final Year Age: 22.5

Burton maxed out in college with season highs of 40 receptions and 798 yards across four seasons at Georgia and Alabama, but he has some interesting tidbits about his profile that keep the door open for him as having Kenny Stills potential in the NFL.

For one, the pedigree of playing at both of those schools.

But as a sophomore at Georgia in 2021, Burton was second on the team in receiving yards behind Brock Bowers. That was on a team with both Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell.

His 2.6 career receptions per game rank 30th in this draft class, but Burton’s 18.0 yards per career reception are the highest in this class.

17.4% of his career receptions went for touchdowns, eighth in this class.

No player in this class averaged more air yards per target than Burton’s 20.2-yard average depth of target.

Burton used those downfield looks to leverage 2.75 yards per route run, which sits 12th in this class.

His 2.45 yards per team pass attempt rank 11th.

The question with Burton is can he earn other targets in an offense?

He was targeted on just 19.7% of his routes, 33rd in the class.

I did use the Stills comparison earlier. Stills ran a faster 4.38 time in the 40 at 194 pounds.

Burton ran a 4.45 time at 196 pounds while pairing that with a 91st-percentile explosion score in the jumping drills.

Bub Means, Pittsburgh

Final Year Age: 23.0

Means does not have much of a production profile, catching just 90 passes over his three seasons in college.

His best season came this past year, catching 41 passes for 721 yards and six touchdowns.

He played in some brutal passing games at Pitt but also had fewer receptions than teammate Konata Mumpfield in each of the past two seasons.

While Means does not have a wealth of counting stats, he made his catches count as a downfield target.

His 17.2 yards per career catch are third in this class.

No player in this class had a higher rate of targets than Means on throws 20 or more yards downfield (41.5%).

As a downfield threat, Means has the size (6-foot-1 and 212 pounds with 33.25-inch arms and 10-inch hands) and got himself noticed at the NFL Combine by running a 4.43 40-yard time attached to that frame.

That profile will at least get a few nibbles to see if the limitations that Means faced producing were more of a product of quarterback play at college.

Luke McCaffrey, Rice

Final Year Age: 22.7

You didn’t think we were done with wideouts that stem from great NFL bloodlines, did you?

McCaffrey is one of the more interesting players of the draft.

Not just because of his family tree of guys who are just “good at the game,” but McCaffrey took a unique path to this point.

He started his collegiate career as a running quarterback over his first three seasons at both Nebraska and Rice before making a full jump to wide receiver in 2022.

As a primary receiver in his first season at the position, McCaffrey caught 58 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns while he still rushed for 148 yards and a score.

In 2023, he took another step up, catching 71 passes for 992 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air while adding 117 yards rushing.

In 2023, McCaffrey accounted for 29.6% of the Rice targets (WR6 in this class), 40.4% of the team’s air yards (WR6), 44.8% of the receiving touchdowns (WR5), and 26.5% of the team receptions (WR6).

McCaffrey is not small (he was attempting to play quarterback after all) at 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds, but as of right now he is still learning the position through the slot, where he ran 71.4% of his routes.

He checked out of the NFL Combine with almost identical measurements to his brother.

He ran a 4.46 time in the 40 with a 36-inch vertical and 10-foot-1 broad jump.

Christian ran a 4.48 with a 37.5-inch vertical and a 10-foot-1 broad jump.

Where both popped is in terms of agility scores.

Luke had a 91st-percentile agility score with a 6.7 3-cone and a 4.02 20-yard shuttle.

Christian had a 6.57 3-cone and a 4.22 20-yard shuttle.

No one is expecting Luke to be Christian in the NFL.

But we know his dad can play receiver and catching ability runs in this family.

McCaffrey still takes some squinting and projection in the NFL, but I am for sure going to throw some fourth-round rookie picks out there in spots based on the “good at the game” factor.

Jacob Cowing, Arizona

Final Year Age: 22.9

Cowing has a bed of production to lie on entering the NFL.

Over five seasons at UTEP and Arizona, his 5.5 career receptions per game are second in this class while his 77.2 career receiving yards per game are fourth.

He scored a class-high 33 touchdowns through the air, ranking 11th with 0.6 touchdowns per game.

Cowing was good with what he was given in college and a consistent player.

But at 5-foot-8, we are facing similar obstacles for Cowing in the NFL that we talked about with Malik Washington.

The difference is that Cowing was also only 168 pounds while Washington was 191 pounds.

Cowing’s 29.25-inch arms are in the second percentile.

For being so light, Cowing was at least fast. He ran a 4.38 time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine.

Everything else was nondescript and at the bottom of measurables.

He posted a 32nd-percentile explosion score in jumping drills and a three-percentile score in agility drills, which could reinforce his lack of missed tackles forced.

Cowing has more consistent production than someone such as Washington but also had more manufactured for him.

His 6.7 air yards per target in 2023 were ahead of only Malachi Corley while 28.1% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage.

Whereas Washington averaged 5.80 yards per route as an isolated receiver, Cowing was 21st in this class (3.05).

Despite being fed layups, Cowing also only forced a missed tackle on 8.9% of his receptions, which was 28th in the class and well below Washington (31.5%).

Jalen Coker, Holy Cross

Final Year Age: 22.2

Every class has one, and Coker is this year’s small-school darling.

Coker carried the Holy Cross passing game, catching 59 passes for 1,035 yards and 15 touchdowns.

He had 36.0% of the team targets, 43.1% of the air yards, 46.3% of the receiving yards, and 60.0% (!) of the receiving touchdowns.

If he was included with all of the D1 prospects in this class, Coker’s 3.51 yards per route run would rank behind Malik Nabers as second in this class.

His 4.19 yards per team pass attempt would be tops.

Coker averaged 15.1 air yards per target while 28.1% of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield.

Coker’s tape is filled with him playing power forward. He just throws his body in front of defenders and shuts them out.

At 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds, Coker is not as big as his playstyle was against weaker competition.

He ran only a 4.57 time in the 40-yard dash, a 35th-percentile score adjusted for his size. Only Keon Coleman and Isaiah Williams ran slower times at the Combine.

That is not endearing for his prospects ramping up in competition.

That said, Coker did jump out of the gym in Indy.

He matched a class-high with a 42.5-inch vertical.

Malik Washington also had a 42.5-inch vertical, but he is 5-foot-9, four inches shorter than Coker.

We are rooting for Coker but within reason.

Gamers have long chased guys such as Jeff Janis, Justin Watson, Mike Strachan, and even last year with Andrei Iosivas as solid-profiled wideouts making the jump to the NFL.

Jamari Thrash, Louisville

Final Year Age: 23.0

After four years of playing in the Sun Belt at Georgia State, Thrash transferred to Louisville this summer, catching 63 passes for 858 yards and six touchdowns, tacking on a rushing score.

After 30.9% of his targets were deep targets in 2022 at Georgia State while averaging 18.4 yards per catch, just 20.8% of his targets were deep targets this past season at Louisville where he averaged 13.6 yards per catch.

It is concerning that Thrash had a production drop as an older prospect facing tougher competition.

At six feet even and 188 pounds, Thrash has a largely nondescript physical profile.

He posted a 4.46 time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine paired with a 27th-percentile explosion score.

Tahj Washington, USC

Final Year Age: 22.6

Washington posted more yardage and yards per reception in each of his three seasons at USC after transferring there after two seasons at Memphis.

Like most of the wideouts in this area of the draft, his best season came in his fifth year, catching 59 passes for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

Washington is a stone’s throw away from guys like Malik Washington and Jacob Cowing in this class.

His 3.06 yards per route in 2023 were ninth in this class and higher than teammate Brenden Rice.

Like Malik Washington and Cowing, Tahj looks the part of a player who is going to depend on opportunity firsthand in the NFL.

89.3% of his routes came from the slot, which was the third-highest rate in this class.

Only 2.3% of his routes were as an isolated receiver, the lowest rate in this class.

To his credit, he posted more yards per route run from the slot (3.17) than both Malik Washington (2.97) and Cowing (1.81).

When he was targeted downfield, Washington also secured 13-of-15 targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield, by far the highest rate in this class.

At 5-foot-10 and 174 pounds, Washington also checked in at the Combine with 29-inch arms and 8.5-inch hands.

He only participated in jumping drills in the physical testing part of the Combine but managed only a 43rd-percentile explosion score.

Maybe this is a Washington surname thing, but Tahj also looks a lot like Parker Washington from last year’s draft class.

Tier 6 Rookie Wide Receivers

We are bringing things home with the remainder of the wideouts that were invited to the Combine.

All of these players lack the projected draft capital that will make them more than longer bets for dynasty circles, but we may end up with a few surprises in April to shake things up and revisit.

• Anthony Gould, Oregon, FY Age: 22.7
  
• Ryan Flournoy, So. Miss. State, FY Age: 24.2
  
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M, FY Age: 22.6
  
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia, FY Age: 22.0
  
• Jha’Quan Jackson, Tulane, FY Age: 23.6
  
• Isaiah Williams, Illinois, FY Age: 22.9
  
• Lideatrick Griffin, Miss. State, FY Age: 22.9
  
• Jordan Whittington, Texas, FY Age: 23.3
  
• Tayvion Robinson, Kentucky, FY Age: 23.3
  
• Xavier Weaver, Colorado, FY Age: 23.2
  
• Cornelius Johnson, Michigan, FY Age: 23.1
  
• Devaughn Vele, Utah, FY Age: 25.1

You can make a case that Anthony Gould belongs in the tier above, but there is just such a small production profile that I have him here.

Gould only posted 1,360 yards with six touchdowns over the past three seasons at Oregon State.

He does have some peripherals that suggest that he at least belongs in the conversation with Jermaine Burton and Bub Means as a field stretcher, though.

Gould averaged 16.2 yards per catch in college, which was good for ninth in this class.

He ran a 4.39 at the Combine to help his cause, but he also is a smaller player (5-foot-8 and 174 pounds) than both of those guys.

Jalen Coker gets more of the shine, but Ryan Flournoy is our other small-school prospect with a wide-open profile to keep an eye on.

He is much older than Coker, but that is common for prospects forced to come from the corners of the college landscape. Especially paired with this being an older class in general due to the COVID period.

Flournoy averaged a class-high 82.9 receiving yards per game at Southeast Missouri State.

He showed up to the NFL Combine at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds, sporting 10-inch mitts.

With good size, he ran a 4.44 forty (72nd-percentile speed score) while posting a 94th-percentile explosion score in jumping drills.

Isaiah Williams has some good production that should not be overlooked.

He accounted for 32.5% of the Illinois targets (fifth in this class) and 31.4% of his team receptions.

But it is hard to bet on a 5-foot-9 receiver who ran the slowest time in the 40-yard dash at the Combine. At least smaller guys such as Malik Washington and Jacob Cowing that stacked slot production showed that they were fast.

Williams also averaged a class-low 10.8 yards per reception for his career paired with that lack of measured speed.

I always like to look at the players with the best pedigree on special teams since they have a habit of making the back end of rosters.

If you are keeping doors open for the best returners in this class, we have three different wideouts here who had over 1,000 yards on special teams over their college careers with Ainias Smith, Jha’Quan Jackson, and Lideatrick Griffin.

What makes all three of these guys trickier is that all of them are 190 pounds or lighter with lacking physical profiles paired with limited receiving work.

Smith is the best of these long bets between returners.

Smith does have three different seasons with over 500 yards receiving despite never cresting 800 yards or more than six touchdowns across five seasons at Texas A&M.

Smith forced a missed tackle on a class-high 37.7% of his receptions while only 8.9% of his targets came from behind the line of scrimmage.

2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings