After running through the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end rankings, we are continuing to break down this incoming rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and even the potential these young players can have on the 2024 seasonal formats.
Even before the actual NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.
Now that the NFL Combine has passed, we have a plethora of new athletic data on this upcoming rookie class.
That information can be applied to athletic models and used to shape the full portfolio for prospects to go along with production profiles, which is a general overlay of what these players put on tape for NFL teams.
As we get more athletic testing data via Pro Days, we will add notes here to those prospects.
However, overall, athletic testing has a low correlation to actual fantasy output. When it does, it is typically counted twice from a productive player in the first place.
But when a prospect has subpar athletic testing paired with a limited or nonexistent production resume, then we are playing with fire when attempting to elevate or count on that player for NFL production.
During last year’s draft, we had only 18 running backs selected, which matched the fewest total selected in a draft since 2010 when only 15 picks were used on the position.
This running back class does not carry a lot of high-end profiles while the free agent class of the position was strong
Pairing the two together could signal that this draft could push for another low investment into the position via the draft.
Right now, we do not have a single running back inside of the top 60 overall picks in the Mock Draft Database.
It only takes one team to grab someone higher. But if that were to play out this April, that would be a first.
Just twice since 1960 have we seen the first running back in the draft selected outside of the top 40 picks. One of those years was 1963.
The lowest pick used on the first running back in the draft was pick No. 54 in 2014, which was Bishop Sankey.
I would express caution on elevating any running back this draft season based on invested draft capital or initial landing spot too greatly in rookie drafts and new startups.
That said, even if the NFL and we as fantasy gamers enter the draft with trepidation on this running back class, we also inherently know that there will be a few players here that will run into fantasy relevance.
Even that 2014 draft class that Sankey led produced players such as Carlos Hyde, Devonta Freeman, James White, Jeremy Hill, and Jerick McKinnon.
Depending on your level of fantasy masochism, what makes this draft class interesting is that the field is largely wide open.
We should see a lot of variance in player rankings versus draft investment league to league this spring.
Post-draft we’ll have the added influence of draft investment and landing spot to add to the layout, but opportunity is the name of the game for the running back position. If you can find the field and accrue touches, that’s the starting block we care about.
For previous reference, feel free to peruse the 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 breakdowns.
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Tier 1 Rookie Running Backs
We have to start somewhere, and these are the backs that I believe have the cleanest paths to early starting roles while also fighting for three-down relevancy when and if they do.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
Final Year Age: 20.8
Wright is a tricky prospect (nobody here is squeaky clean), but his ceiling is arguably one of the highest in this draft class.
At 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds, Wright has the requisite size paired with the tangible explosion to churn out splash plays.
At the NFL Combine, he registered a 91st percentile speed score paired with a 98th explosion score in the jumping drills.
That shows up in his metrics as well.
Wright led this class with an explosive touch on 22.0% of his opportunities in 2023.
51.9% of his rushing yardage came on breakaway runs, which was fourth in this class.
13.9% of his runs went for 15 or more yards, second in this class.
Wright’s 7.3 yards per touch were second in this class.
Turning only 21 years old on April 1, Wright is also the fourth-youngest running back in this class.
What does not give Wright a complete outlook is that he played on a committee with Dylan Sampson that improved his efficiency output while added volume could have leveled things off.
Rational coaching should be positive, but we just do not have a large sample of Wright doing the dirty work.
Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class.
81.0% of his runs came against light boxes (six or fewer defenders) which was the highest rate in this class.
On those runs, Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry.
Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per Sports Info Solutions.
On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.
When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class.
On runs when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged a class-high 10.6 YPC.
As a byproduct of his role, Wright only had one rushing attempt inside of the five-yard line.
That top-down rushing profile is extremely in line with the one that Jahmyr Gibbs had a year ago.
The difference here is that Wright does not have the pass-catching resume that Gibbs came paired with.
His 1.8 receptions per game for his career are 12th in this class while he averaged fewer than a reception per game in his final season.
I believe that Wright will catch more passes in the NFL than he did in the Tennessee system, but that is why he is not receiving the same buzz that Gibbs did a year ago. He takes more projection.
Trey Benson, Florida State
Final Year Age: 21.4
Benson is not my favorite back through subjectivity, but he has the highest score in my prospect model based on blended age-adjusted production, physical profile, and projected draft capital.
In a year with limited profiles, Benson does check a number of the prerequisite boxes we are looking for and that should not be ignored.
He logged back-to-back seasons with over 1,100 yards at Florida State after transferring from Oregon. He scored 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons.
At 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds at the NFL Combine, Benson then ran a 4.39 forty (a 94th percentile speed score) paired with a 62nd percentile explosion score in the jumping drills.
While Benson’s counting stats are solid, they are still not spectacular under the hood.
Playing behind a limited offensive line, Benson was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46.2% of his rushes in 2023. That was the fourth-highest rate in this draft class per Sports Info Solutions.
That gives him somewhat of a hall pass, but Benson ranked 15th in this class in yards after contact per carry (3.1 yards).
He ranked 14th in missed tackle rate per rush (21.8%) and 25th in rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (24.4%).
We also have not seen Benson carry a large workload yet.
He had 167 and 176 touches the past two seasons with one game reaching 20 carries in his collegiate career. His 13.5 touches per game in 2023 rank 21st in this class.
Only 33.3% of Benson’s runs came on inside runs, which was ahead of only Ray Davis (29.1%), Daijun Edwards (29.1%) and Kendall Minton (28.1%).
On those inside runs, Benson averaged 2.2 yards after contact per rush, second to last in this class.
Just 21.2% of those inside runs resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate of this class.
On outside runs, he averaged 3.5 yards after contact per rush, which was eighth.
Benson’s measured speed does show up in games. He can hit home runs and as noted, received the majority of his runs on the perimeter.
59.3% of Benson’s rushing yardage in 2023 came on breakaway runs, which was the third-highest rate in this class.
Jonathon Brooks, Texas
Final Year Age: 20.4
Brooks was buried behind both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson during his first two years at Texas, but when allowed to carry the workload this past year for the first time, he excelled.
Only one running back in this class has fewer career touches in college than Brooks does.
Brooks only logged 64 total touches over his first two seasons but was impressive with 7.0 and 7.3 yards per touch on those plays.
Ramping that touch-sample up to 212 opportunities this past season, Brooks still sustained a gaudy 6.7 yards per touch, producing 1,425 yards to go along with 11 touchdowns.
Brooks rushed for 6.2 yards per carry against heavy boxes (third in this class) while 54.5% of his runs came against those fronts.
Brooks also had 51 reps in pass protection and did not allow a single pressure or sack on those plays.
I believe Brooks is in contention for being the best running back in this class, but we not only have to project a small sample of collegiate opportunities, but he also is returning from a torn ACL in November.
Brooks did check in at 6-foot and 216 pounds at the NFL Combine, but that injury prevented him from doing any physical drills.
He did say that he was targeting a July 1 return to full-time activity and expects to be ready for training camp, but that injury could push down his draft investment and Year 1 production. That leaves the door wide open for future outcomes.
Brooks could be someone who comes on to end the season, or he could be limited altogether in his first season paired with marginal draft investment, which adds to the potential that he never leads a backfield.
Blake Corum, Michigan
Final Year Age: 23.1
Corum does not have a tantalizing profile or any absurd bells and whistles in the efficiency department, but this is a back that I believe the coaching staff will trust and allow him the opportunity to exceed his top-down profile.
I do not believe Corum is much different in that regard from what we had in Brian Robinson a few years ago. Gamers may want a more intoxicating profile, but Corum is going to be drafted highly regarding this class.
Corum continuously produced less efficiency per touch as his career went on in college.
After averaging 6.6 yards per carry in 2021, dipped down to 5.9 YPC in 2022. and then averaged 4.8 YPC this past season. His yards per touch went from 6.5 yards down to 6.0 and 5.0 in those seasons.
The only running back in this draft class to average fewer yards per touch in 2023 than Corum was Miyan Williams (3.8), and Williams only had 53 opportunities over his six games played.
There were rumors that Corum played with injuries this past season, and the results showed in terms of sapping explosive plays.
Corum had a run of 15 or more yards on 5.0% of his rushes in 2023 (27th in this class) after rates of 8.9% in 2022 and 9.0% in 2021.
Michigan’s structure on offense did not do him any favors.
A class-high 77.1% of Corum’s 2023 runs came against seven or more defenders in the box.
42.2% came against eight or more defenders in the box, which was also the highest rate in this class.
But while he was forced to run into heavy boxes, Corum was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on a class-low 31.8% of his runs and only averaged a class-low 6.2 yards per carry on his runs in which he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage.
That said, NFL teams know what they are getting here.
Corum is a back who turned 73.0% of his short-yardage runs into a first down or touchdown (fourth in this class) while leading the class in those runs a year ago (63).
He converted 80.0% of his rushes inside of the five-yard line while leading this class with 25 carries in that area of the field.
The interesting component there is that Corum is not very big.
He was 5-foot-8 and 205 pounds at the NFL Combine. He participated in every drill outside of the broad jump and logged a 67th percentile athletic score.
Corum only registered a 40th percentile speed score (4.53 forty) which backed his lack of explosive runs, but he stood out with an 88th percentile agility score.
Tier 2 Rookie Running Backs
MarShawn Lloyd, USC
Final Year Age: 22.0
Lloyd is arguably my favorite runner in this class, but he takes a step of faith in terms of career opportunity and current projected draft capital. Of these backs we have covered so far, Lloyd has the most fragile price tag.
Lloyd did not have more than 129 touches in any season at South Carolina and then USC.
His 11.6 touches per game this past season ranked 24th in this class.
But the good for Lloyd in 2023 was really good.
He led this draft class with 8.2 yards per touch in 2023.
66.1% of his runs did come against light boxes (fourth highest in this class), but he led this class in yards per carry against seven or more defenders in the box (7.1 YPC) as well.
Lloyd forced a missed tackle on a class-high 37.1% of his rushes a year ago.
Lloyd was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 41.4% of his runs (fifth highest) behind a banged-up offensive line.
When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Lloyd rushed for a class-high 2.9 YPC.
When he was allowed a clear lane, Lloyd also rushed for 10.0 YPC on runs in which first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, which only trailed Jaylen Wright.
Lloyd takes some squinting in terms of extended opportunity versus his limited collegiate resume, and he also had some issues in pass protection.
He only played 35 snaps in pass pro but allowed an 8.6% pressure rate on those plays, which was 25th in the class.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
Final Year Age: 19.9
Allen is one of the more intriguing prospects in this crop of running backs.
First off, he is the youngest ever draft eligible running back in my prospect model, which goes back to 2000.
Allen just turned 20 years old this past January.
He is also one of the biggest backs in this class.
Recruited by programs originally under the premise of playing linebacker or safety, Allen checked in at 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds at the NFL Combine.
The downside is that he only participated in jumping drills. In that lone physical assessment before his Pro Day, Allen came out with a 21st percentile explosion score.
For his size, we want him to be on the freaky athletic measured spectrum that someone such as Derrick Henry was. Not running or doing any agility drills is an initial red flag, so we will keep tabs and circle back here after his Pro Day.
Allen’s production profile is solid, however.
He turned in 1,307 total yards and 12 touchdowns as a freshman in 2021 followed by 1,346 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022 and another 1,116 yards and 12 touchdowns this past season.
Allen’s 99.8 rushing yards per game over his college career are only behind Jaden Shirden (112.0), who played at Monmouth and not a Power 5 school.
One of the rumored reasons that he was set to make a jump into the NFL was the change in the system at Wisconsin this past season, moving away from a downhill running game.
Despite the changes made, Allen still rushed for a first down or touchdown on 32.6% of his runs in 2023, which was fifth in this draft class.
Only 12.2% of his runs failed to gain yardage, which was the second-best rate in the class.
But we still have a lot more questions about Allen as a back that could be pigeonholed in the NFL as a two-down asset dependent on touchdown production.
One of those things that the change in approach did for Allen this past season was allow him to catch 28 passes after just 21 receptions in his first two seasons combined. Unfortunately, Allen averaged only 4.7 yards per catch on those grabs.
76.7% of those receptions were also behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in this class.
He just does not profile as a back that will earn anything more than token checkdowns or called screens.
Allen also struggled in pass protection.
He had 90 plays in protection, allowing a 16.7% pressure rate (26th in the class).
Counterintuitive to what gamers may assume, running backs who play on early downs in the NFL log more snaps in pass protection than third-down backs do since they are running pass routes on those plays.
Audric Estime, Notre Dame
Final Year Age: 20.3
Estime is another back that has several positive points paired with potential limitations.
First, the age-adjusted production is strong.
After 1,055 total yards and 12 touchdowns at age 19, Estime came back this season with 1,483 yards and 18 scores on his 227 touches.
Estime also has a size (5-foot-11 and 221 pounds) that can carry a high workload.
He logged 15 or more rushes in 8-of-12 games last season with 18 or more rushes in six of those games.
Estime failed to gain positive yardage on just 12.4% of his runs a year ago, a rate bested by only three backs in this draft class.
Only 30.0% of his 210 runs came against light boxes. Only Blake Corum had a lower rate.
Unlike Corum, however, Estime punished those light boxes. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry against those fronts, which was fifth in this class.
Estime also averaged 6.1 YPC against seven or more box defenders (fourth in the class).
He had 75 rushes with eight or more defenders in the box, trailing only Corum (109).
Whereas Corum only averaged 3.5 YPC on those runs, Estime averaged 5.7 YPC.
One of the potential issues with Estime is the limitations that he could face in terms of a full-time role in the NFL versus one that leaves him dependent on early-down or goal-line production.
Only Kendall Minton and Miyan Williams averaged fewer receptions per game than Estime (0.70) for career production in this class.
Estime also did not help himself by running a 4.71 forty at the NFL Combine, which is a 13th-percentile speed score.
The interesting part about that is that Estime had plenty of explosive plays. His 16.7% explosive play rate per touch ranks seventh in this class.
Estime turned in 591 yards (44.1% of his total rushing yards) on runs of 15 or more yards, which was fourth in this class in 2023.
Going back to Kyren Williams a few years ago (who ran a 4.65), we may have to look into how the Notre Dame strength and conditioning coach is preparing these guys in that drill.
Although he did not run a fast time, Estime did pop for an 88th percentile score in the jumping drills, something that fellow big-back Braelon Allen did not.
Still, even if you are looking to throw out that clocked speed at the Combine compared to his on-field output, that registered forty does not make us feel warm inside.
The only running backs to run a slower time than Estime at the combine that produced an RB2 season or better were LeGarrette Blount and Shaun Draughn.
Tier 3 Rookie Running Backs
We are well into the weeds in a limited draft class, but there are some “squint to see it” prospects here that come with some spice in their resumes with room for a three-down role if an opportunity presents itself in the NFL.
Isaac Guerendo, Louisville
Final Year Age: 23.5
Guerendo is someone many are keeping tabs on at the draft after his showing at the NFL Combine.
At 6 feet even and 222 pounds, Guerendo ran a 4.33 forty (99th percentile speed score) and then tripled down with a 97th percentile explosion score in jumping drills and a 91st percentile agility score.
His 10.6% breakaway run rate ranks sixth in this draft class, supporting that measured athleticism with on-field production.
When he was given room to work, he did nothing but showcase that athleticism.
When Guerendo was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged 9.7 yards per rush, which was third in this class.
A red flag is that he averaged only 7.4 touches per game for his career, which was 27th in this class.
But he also shared a backfield with Jawhar Jordan, who is also in this draft.
Guerendo delivered more efficiency as a runner.
Johnson had an 8.3% breakaway run rate, which was 17th in this class.
He is considered by scouts to be one of the best outside runners in this class due to the wide-zone scheme at Louisville.
65.2% of his runs were outside runs, which was sixth in this class.
On those carries, Guerendo averaged 6.1 yards per carry, which was ninth.
Where Guerendo’s profile gets interesting paired with his size and speed is that he had glowing underlying metrics on inside runs and after contact.
His 6.2 YPC on inside runs ranked sixth in this class while his 4.9 yards after contact per run on those carries was third.
Guerendo was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on a class-high 47.0% of his runs in 2023.
Despite that, he averaged 2.2 YPC on those runs, which was second in this class.
Through an overall run lens, he was fifth in this class in yards after contact per carry (3.9 yards).
63.6% of Guerendo’s yardage rushing came after contact (sixth in this class) compared to 46.5% for Jordan, who was second to last.
Ray Davis, Kentucky
Final Year Age: 24.1
Davis has been a bit of everywhere in college.
Davis produced 1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman at Temple back in 2019.
After only playing in seven games over the 2020-2021 seasons due to a toe injury and a COVID season, Davis produced 1,211 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022 at Vanderbilt before churning out his best college season this past year at Kentucky.
In 2023, he amassed career-highs in total yards (1,452), touchdowns (21) and yards per touch (6.3).
At 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds, Davis has a tweener profile, but one we have seen gain more work in the current context of the NFL than in previous years where we were hunting for a bigger body.
That never stopped Davis from accruing touches at each stop he made in college.
Davis is second in this draft class in career collegiate touches (840) while averaging the most touches per game (19.1) in this class.
In 2023, Davis accounted for 71.6% of the Kentucky backfield touches, which was third in this draft class.
He is one of just eight running backs in this class to average more than 2.0 receptions per game in college while ranking sixth this past season among this class with 2.5 receptions per game.
63.3% of his rushes in 2023 came against seven or more defenders in the box (fifth highest rate in this class) and he averaged 5.9 yards per rush on those runs (fifth).
Despite the high rate of runs against heavy boxes, Davis had the second-lowest rate of inside runs (29.1%) in the draft class.
The rub with Davis is that while he does do a bit of everything while productive, there is not a lot of flash while he is the third-oldest running back in the draft.
His 13.4% explosive touch rate is 15th in this class.
With a heavy dose of outside runs, Davis ranked 20th in yards per carry (5.3 YPC) on those perimeter runs.
When Davis was hit at or behind the line, he was 17th in this class in yards per run (1.2 YPC).
On short-yardage runs, his 64.5% conversion rate ranked 14th.
From a physical profile stance, all of this comes attached to a 32nd percentile athletic score.
Davis also ranked 24th in pressure rate allowed (8.3%) in pass protection on 72 plays.
Bucky Irving, Oregon
Final Year Age: 21.4
After posting 772 total yards and four touchdowns as a true freshman in 2021, Irving came back and had strong seasons with 1,357 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022 and then 1,593 yards and 13 touchdowns this past season.
He ramped up production each year while building the best Power 5 receiving resume in this class.
Irving averaged 4.0 receptions per game for his college career, trailing only New Hampshire’s finest Dylan Laube in this draft class. No other running back in this class even averaged 3.0 receptions per game across their collegiate careers.
As a runner, Irving also has a solid profile, but it is hard to extrapolate that production heading into the NFL due to his size and athletic profile.
Irving averaged 7.6 yards per rush against light boxes (fourth in this class) but dipped down to 5.3 YPC against boxes with seven or more defenders, which sagged down to 12th in this class.
Irving has the benefit of being young and building up a solid pass-catching resume, but as we talked about with Bo Nix in the quarterback post, Irving was in optimal conditions behind the highest-graded offensive line in college and a quarterback who took what was given.
As was the case with Nix, how much of an advantage did Irving have and where does the actual truth lie with him as a player?
Sports Info Solutions charted Irving as running to the designed gap on a class-low 51.9% of his rushes.
At the NFL Combine, Irving tested in the sixth percentile in athletic score.
At 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds, Irving does not profile as a back that will garner a high workload rushing and he does not have the top-end measured athleticism like say De’Von Achane to offer a trump card to counter being undersized.
Irving did force a lot of missed tackles to give him added outs, ranking third in this class with a missed tackle forced on 34.1% of his runs.
That said, he profiles as a back that will be used as a change of pace and receiving back firsthand and only garner more three-down work through injuries and necessity in a vacuum.
Will Shipley, Clemson
Final Year Age: 21.4
Shipley’s top-down profile looks similar to Irving’s.
He is the same age as Irving entering the NFL.
Shipley averaged 2.6 receptions per game for his career, fourth in the class.
In 2023, he ran 19.2% of his routes in the slot, which led the class.
He averaged 76.3 rushing yards per game for his career, while Irving averaged 75.3.
Whereas Irving kept improving each season at Oregon in terms of production, Shipley took a step back in 2023.
After posting 1,424 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2022 while averaging 5.7 yards per touch, Shipley had 1,071 yards and seven touchdowns this past season.
Clemson took an overall step back, but Shipley was outperformed by teammate Phil Mafah, who had 1,073 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Though he is not a big back that still profiles as a similar archetype to Irving in the NFL, Shipley is a touch larger. Coming in at 5-foot-11 and 206 pounds, his size does give him a little more runway than Irving in getting a coaching staff to offer more of a rushing role.
Shipley did not do physical testing at the Combine, so we will have to wait to see if he tests anywhere near Irving’s underwhelming outcome.
Dylan Laube, New Hampshire
Final Year Age: 24.0
It feels like everyone is rooting for Laube.
New Hampshire has had just 10 players drafted to the NFL, and none of them were offensive skill players.
Laube’s top-down profile is extremely intriguing, especially as a pass catcher.
He averaged 6.0 receptions per game over his collegiate career, the most in this class.
In 2023, Laube accounted for 19.8% of the New Hampshire targets, by far the highest target share in this class.
Laube had 22.9% of his team receptions. The next closest back in this class (Ray Davis) was at 15.2%.
His 2023 season was highlighted by a game against Central Michigan in which he caught 12 passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns paired with 30 yards and a touchdown rushing.
48.7% of Laube’s 2023 yardage on offense stemmed through receiving, which was second in this class.
Laube was also huge in the return game, posting a class-high 2,633 yards and another three scores returning kicks.
His receiving and returning ability out of the box give him the potential to have a Tarik Cohen-like rookie impact.
Laube is also more compact than Cohen at 5-foot-9 and 206 pounds.
The questions with Laube come in the running game and transitioning to a significant spike in competition.
Even playing lower-end competition, Laube’s rushing profile is lackluster.
His 60.3 rushing yards per game for his career are 13th in this class.
Despite being used heavily as a receiver and returning kicks against those lower-end opponents, Laube also failed to generate a plethora of splash plays.
His 8.8% explosive play rate per touch in 2023 ranked ahead of only Miyan Williams.
He ran a 39th percentile forty (4.54 seconds) at the NFL combine, which did not blow away any potential concerns that he can deliver that added punch in the NFL.
Laube also posted a 93rd percentile agility score to keep the door open that there is still a spark here.
The good news is that he will come in cheaply in rookie drafts.
Tier 4 Rookie Running Backs
The next tier of backs do not currently have much sizzle in projected draft capital, but all were productive players. Even if scaling more towards the “boring” scope of things for backs selected on Day 3, sometimes that is enough in the NFL. The first thing that we care about is opportunity, and these backs did stack counting stats on the opportunities that they were given.
Kimani Vidal, Troy
Final Year Age: 22.3
Vidal is a workhorse back who stacked touches and yardage in college.
Vidal was second in the country last season with 1,661 rushing yards and led college football with 295 rushes.
He totaled 315 touches and 1,862 yards to go along with 15 touchdowns.
This came a year after posting 1,272 yards and 10 scores on 257 touches.
Vidal increased his touches every season in college.
At 5-foot-7 and 213 pounds, Vidal also showed up with an 81st percentile athletic score at the NFL Combine, being one of the few backs to participate in all drills.
While Vidal showcased being able to handle a high workload, his projected draft capital suggests that the league is going to make him an underdog in a depth chart.
Vidal’s 5.4 yards per carry against light boxes ranked 19th in this class. But his 5.8 YPC against heavier boxes was seventh.
58.6% of Vidal’s runs were inside runs, which was the third-highest rate in this class.
He also was hit at or behind the line on 44.4% of his runs, which was the fourth-highest rate in the class.
On those runs, he was fourth in the class in yards per carry (2.1 YPC) and forced a missed tackle on 31.1% of those runs (third in the class) when hit at or behind the line.
Dillon Johnson, Washington
Final Year Age: 22.5
Through three years at Mississippi State, Johnson’s best season was 154 touches for 907 yards.
He had 12 total touchdowns over those seasons.
Transferring to Washington this offseason, Johnson took advantage of his new situation, logging 1,385 yards and 16 touchdowns on 257 touches.
Johnson has the size at six feet even and 217 pounds, but his production is questioned as a late breakout going to a prolific offensive situation.
Johnson forced a missed tackle on just 18.5% of his runs in 2023, 19th in this class.
He averaged 2.3 yards after contact per rush on inside runs, which was 20th.
On runs in which he was contacted beyond the line, Johnson was second to last in yards per rush.
Johnson logged a 14th percentile speed score and 19th percentile explosion score in the drills he did at the combine.
Running a 4.68 forty, Johnson will need to be better on those runs next level since he does not profile to turn in explosives.
Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State
Final Year Age: 22.1
Davis flourished the past two seasons at a small school.
Following the departure of Pierre Strong to the NFL, Davis averaged 6.9 yards per touch in 2023, which trailed only MarShawn Lloyd and Jaylen Wright in this class.
Whereas we highlighted how Dylan Laube did not fully exploit his competition levels at New Hampshire in generating explosive plays consistently, Davis was the opposite.
Davis had an explosive play on 20.9% of his touches in 2023, the third-highest rate in this class.
Of course, the level of competition elevated his efficiency metrics, and Davis still comes with projected draft capital that suggests that he is a longshot bet.
Davis is another good-sized back, which is the theme of this group.
You are going to find backs that you can throw carries at if forced to in this draft.
At 6 foot and 218 pounds, Davis posted a 51st speed score and 49th percentile explosion score at the combine.
Cody Schrader, Missouri
Final Year Age: 24.3
A former JUCO transfer, Schrader was the Missouri running game in 2023.
He accounted for 78.0% of the rushes, 78.09% of the touches, and 81.7% of the total yards in his backfield, all of which were the highest rates in this draft class.
At the end of the year, Schrader totaled 1,818 yards and 14 touchdowns on 298 touches.
What stands out for Schader compared to the rest of this group is that he punched up against some real competition.
He had big games against top-end defenses in Georgia (126 yards and a touchdown) and Ohio State (128 yards and a touchdown) while rushing for over 100 yards in each of his final six games of the year against Power 5 schools.
Although he carried a large workload at Missouri, Schrader does not have the physical profile to suggest that he will be in the NFL unless a team is forced to give him that much work.
At 5-foot-8 and 202 pounds, Schrader is smaller than the other backs in this area.
At his size, he posted an 11th percentile speed score (4.61 forty).
He also was a six-year player, making him the second-oldest running back in this class.
Frank Gore Jr, Southern Miss
Final Year Age: 21.8
Gore does not have the same profile as his dad entering the league, but similarly to his father, Junior was a back who found a way to produce.
Gore handled a high workload behind a miserable offensive front.
He was contacted at or behind the line on 46.8% of his rushes in 2023, the second-highest rate in this class.
On those runs, he averaged 3.3 yards after contact per rush, third in this class.
Gore accrued 1,601 and 1,352 total yards with 22 touchdowns over the past two seasons at Southern Miss.
In one of the weirder footnotes for a player in this draft, Gore also threw seven touchdowns over his time in college, attempting 35 passes.
Gore is durable and workhorse back. He is going to get drafted based on his namesake and counting stats.
Like his father, Gore also was a dependable pass blocker.
He played a class-high 123 snaps in pass protection last season, allowing pressure on 3.3% of those snaps (sixth in this class).
While Gore was a back who overcame a lack of explosion like his dad at the end of his NFL career, he is far less explosive entering the NFL.
His 12.0% explosive play rate ranks 19th in this draft class.
At 5-foot-8 and 201 pounds, Gore did not participate in any physical testing at the NFL Combine.
Considering that his projected draft capital is deep into Day 3, that is a red flag.
Tier 5 Rookie Running Backs
- Rasheen Ali, Marshall (FY Age: 22.9)
- Tyrone Tracy, Purdue (FY Age: 24.1)
- Jawhar Jordan, Louisville (FY Age: 24.4)
- Jase McClellan, Alabama (FY Age: 21.5)
- Daijun Edwards, Georgia (FY Age: 21.7)
- Kendall Milton, Georgia (FY Age: 21.9)
- Jaden Shirden, Monmouth (FY Age: 21.7)
- Keilan Robinson, Texas (FY Age: 22.4)
- George Holani, Boise State (FY Age:23.0)
- Emani Bailey, TCU (FY Age: 22.1)
- Miyan Williams, Ohio State (FY Age: 22.2)
- Michael Wiley, Arizona (FY Age: 23.1)
Tyrone Tracy is on the lower end of the pass-catching archetypes but is arbitrage on the field.
He has adequate size for that role at 5-foot-11 and 209 pounds. He stood out at the NFL Combine with a 91st percentile athletic score.
The red flags here are that Tracy is one of the older backs in this class while having his best season in his sixth year in college. That best season was also only 848 total yards.
Kendall Milton generated an explosive play on 21.6% of his touches, second in this class behind Jaylen Wright.
Minton averaged a class-low 0.3 receptions per game for his career, but 13.2% of his runs gained 15 or more yards, which was fourth in this class.
He shared a backfield with Daijun Edwards.
Edwards averaged a class-low 4.2 yards per rush on inside runs.
70.3% of his rushing attempts were on outside runs, the third-highest rate in this class.
On those runs, Edwards was 14th in yards per run (5.8 YPC).
It feels odd that we are collectively down on an Alabama running back.
But Jase McClellan did not clear 200 touches in any college season and he lacked the big plays to alleviate a low-touch count.
Just 32.8% of his yardage came on explosive runs (26th in this class) while 7.8% of his runs were breakaway gains (20th).
McClellan averaged a class-low 4.4 yards per rush on outside runs and was second to last with 4.8 YPC against light boxes.
71.3% of Emani Bailey’s runs came against light boxes, the second-highest rate in this class.
Despite facing a surplus of light fronts, he was 20th in yards per rush (5.7 YPC) on those attempts.
Rasheen Ali scored 42 career touchdowns at Marshall, but he averaged a class-low 4.4 YPC against light boxes.
Keilan Robinson is small (5-foot-8 and 191 pounds) and only logged 156 total offensive touches over five collegiate seasons (just 20 in 2023 with Texas), but he is the most experienced kick returner in this class outside of Dylan Laube. That alone can get him a roster spot.
Michael Wiley is a receiving only back.
50.2% of his yardage came via receiving, the highest rate in this class.
He allowed pressure on eight of just 38 snaps in pass protection, a class-high 26.7%.
2024 Rookie Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings
Rank | Player | College | Age | Tier |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jaylen Wright | Tennessee | 20.8 | 1 |
2 | Trey Benson | Florida State | 21.4 | 1 |
3 | Jonathon Brooks | Texas | 20.4 | 1 |
4 | Blake Corum | Michigan | 23.1 | 1 |
5 | MarShawn Lloyd | USC | 22.0 | 2 |
6 | Braelon Allen | Wisconsin | 19.9 | 2 |
7 | Audric Estime | Notre Dame | 20.3 | 2 |
8 | Bucky Irving | Oregon | 21.4 | 3 |
9 | Will Shipley | Clemson | 21.4 | 3 |
10 | Ray Davis | Kentucky | 24.1 | 3 |
11 | Dylan Laube | New Hampshire | 24.0 | 3 |
12 | Isaac Guerendo | Louisville | 23.5 | 3 |
13 | Kimani Vidal | Troy | 22.3 | 4 |
14 | Dillon Johnson | Washington | 22.5 | 4 |
15 | Isaiah Davis | South Dakota State | 22.1 | 4 |
16 | Frank Gore Jr. | Southern Mississippi | 21.8 | 4 |
17 | Cody Schrader | Missouri | 24.3 | 4 |
18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Purdue | 24.1 | 5 |
19 | Rasheen Ali | Marshall | 22.9 | 5 |
20 | Jase McClellan | Alabama | 21.5 | 5 |
21 | Daijun Edwards | Georgia | 21.7 | 5 |
22 | Kendall Milton | Georgia | 21.9 | 5 |
23 | Keilan Robinson | Texas | 22.4 | 5 |
24 | George Holani | Boise State | 23.0 | 5 |
25 | Jaden Shirden | Monmouth | 21.7 | 5 |
26 | Emani Bailey | TCU | 22.1 | 5 |
27 | Jawhar Jordan | Louisville | 24.4 | 5 |
28 | Michael Wiley | Arizona | 23.1 | 5 |
29 | Miyan Williams | Ohio State | 22.2 | 5 |