A move that many were projecting came to fruition on Tuesday with Derrick Henry officially joining the Ravens.
With the Ravens already losing Gus Edwards in free agency, Keaton Mitchell suffering a late-season injury that could impact the start of 2023, and J.K. Dobbins in the air, Baltimore was aggressive in not kicking the can this season on their backfield.
Their issues with retaining a healthy backfield go beyond just the ill fortune of Dobbins, as we have seen the ghosts of Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Kenyan Drake, and Melvin Gordon log snaps for this team over the past three seasons.
Derrick Henry Career Stats
| Year | Att | RuYDs | YPC | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | PPR/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 110 | 490 | 4.5 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 137 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 2017 | 176 | 744 | 4.2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 136 | 1 | 8.4 |
| 2018 | 215 | 1059 | 4.9 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 99 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2019 | 303 | 1540 | 5.1 | 16 | 24 | 18 | 206 | 2 | 19.6 |
| 2020 | 378 | 2027 | 5.4 | 17 | 31 | 19 | 114 | 0 | 20.8 |
| 2021 | 219 | 937 | 4.3 | 10 | 20 | 18 | 154 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 2022 | 349 | 1538 | 4.4 | 13 | 41 | 33 | 398 | 0 | 18.9 |
| 2023 | 280 | 1167 | 4.2 | 12 | 36 | 28 | 214 | 0 | 14.5 |
Henry is coming off a season in which he scored fewer fantasy points per game for the second consecutive season.
His RB16 rank in points per game was the first time since 2018 that he was not an RB1 in that category.
Henry rushed for a career-low in yards per carry.
He also played just 53% of the snaps last season, his lowest rate in a season since the 2018 season.
Over his previous four seasons, Henry played 64%, 66%, 71%, and 67% of the snaps.
But make no mistake, Henry was still a workhorse back.
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Derrick Henry 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Despite giving away more snaps in 2023, Henry still led the NFL in rushing attempts for the fourth time over the past five seasons.
He got there because when Henry was on the field, he was getting the football.
The Titans ran the ball on 58.2% of the snaps that Henry played last season.
The only running back with a higher rate who also played more than 200 snaps was Tyler Allgeier (60.6%).
If looking down the board a few pegs, Gus Edwards sported a 54.3% rate, which was the sixth-highest among running backs.
Although Henry did have some peripheral decline, he also still managed to clear 1,000 yards rushing and rush for double-digit touchdowns for the sixth consecutive season.
He averaged 19.4 PPR points per game in his weeks with a touchdown.
He averaged just 5.5 per game in his weeks without a touchdown.
In his eight games without a touchdown, Henry was a top-24 scorer just twice.
That said, touchdowns should be an available resource here when joining the Ravens.
Henry found paydirt that many times on a Tennessee team that ranked 27th in points per game (17.9) and was 26th in points per drive (1.65).
He is joining a Baltimore team that was fourth in the NFL in points per game (27.7) and sixth in points per drive (2.35).
The Ravens had 74 red zone possessions in 2023 (fifth) while the Titans had 48 (23rd), and Henry still found his way to double-digit touchdowns.
The Ravens ran the football 59.6% of the time in the red zone, which was second in the league behind the Eagles (63.0%).
The difference between the Ravens and the Eagles, however, is that their mobile quarterback did not bogart all of the scoring opportunities.
Baltimore running backs accounted for 20 total rushing touchdowns in 2023, with Edwards leaving 13 scores behind in his final season with the Ravens.
Ravens running backs had 40 rushing attempts in goal-to-goal situations last year (fourth in the league).
Inside of the five-yard line, Baltimore backs were third in the NFL with 25 rushes.
Yesterday, we highlighted how the Philadelphia running backs had zero rushes from the one-yard line while Jalen Hurts had all of them.
The Ravens backfield carried 8-of-10 rushing attempts from the one-yard line.
Running backs at age 30 or over have accounted for just 8.3% of the RB1 scoring seasons over the past 30 years, but we did have Raheem Mostert there last year at age 31 on the strength of touchdown production.
Mostert scored 21 times with 18 of them on the ground.
In 2019, the Ravens signed Mark Ingram as he was hitting age 30 and Ingram found his way to 15 touchdowns and 1,265 yards.
If he can stay healthy the entire way in 2024, Henry should be able to push 15-plus touchdowns on the ground given his career output in a far worse offense paired with the scoring opportunities that Baltimore has provided.
Derrick Henry Advanced Stats
| Year | EPA/Att | LightBox% | Success% | Explosive% | Stuff% | 1D/Rsh | YBC/Att | YAC/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.04 | 13.6% | 46.4% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 26.4% | 1.82 | 2.64 |
| 2017 | -0.09 | 7.4% | 41.5% | 11.4% | 25.6% | 22.2% | 0.99 | 3.23 |
| 2018 | 0.02 | 10.7% | 40.9% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 23.7% | 0.72 | 4.21 |
| 2019 | -0.01 | 11.9% | 41.6% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 24.1% | 0.89 | 4.18 |
| 2020 | 0.02 | 8.2% | 43.1% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 25.9% | 1.42 | 3.94 |
| 2021 | -0.03 | 11.4% | 36.1% | 9.1% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 0.95 | 3.32 |
| 2022 | -0.05 | 14.6% | 35.8% | 10.6% | 17.5% | 18.6% | 0.79 | 3.60 |
| 2023 | -0.01 | 12.5% | 35.4% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 22.5% | 0.85 | 3.32 |
Henry just turned 30 years old this January, so a peripheral decline is expected in terms of his efficiency and his reduced snap count cutting out the empty calorie snaps he played.
Going further under the hood, Henry’s explosive run rate was a career low.
At his age, we should expect some recoil in that area.
But Henry remained a bulldozer, ranking eight in the league in yards after contact per rush out of 49 running backs to carry the ball 100 or more times.
Henry has rarely played behind a good offensive line in his career.
Of those same 49 running backs, he was 44th in yards gained before contact in 2023.
Baltimore running backs averaged 1.59 yards before contact per rush in 2023, which was sixth in the league.
The Titans were 21st in the league in ESPN’s run block win rate while the Ravens were fifth.
Tennessee fared better with an 18th-ranked run blocking grade at Pro Football Focus, but Baltimore was far higher at sixth in the league.
While this should be an upgrade for Henry, it should be noted that Baltimore has a lot in motion up front right now.
They lost guard John Simpson in free agency, who led their offensive line in snaps last year.
Kevin Zeitler, their other guard, remains a free agent.
The team is also at a fulcrum point at offensive tackle as both Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses missed time again a year ago.
The only concrete lineman they have right now is center Tyler Linderbaum.
The rest of the offseason will reveal more to us.
For fantasy football, this is a move that does not create a lot of new information or necessarily elevation for the pieces here but rather reinforces those players.
Given their recent run of injuries and revolving door at the position, the Ravens were looking for a Gibraltar back.
Henry will be someone who is still touchdown-driven before reception-driven in this offense, but he has a path to a plethora of scoring chances.
That is always fragile in totality, and Henry still will carry a lower floor on a weekly level than some of his peers at the position in draft cost.
That said, even with this being a good landing spot, I do have faith that gamers will price in Henry’s age and lack of receiving sizzle at the position into his draft cost.
I anticipate that he will be a back that ends up not costing a first or second-round pick, which would be fair pricing for the overall production.
I will surely keep the door open for Henry in early best ball drafts because of his weekly touchdown potential and evaluate how his early pricing shakes out after the signing.
For seasonal leagues, it is just very rare that I am taking running backs where I believe Henry’s price will fall while I am grabbing wide receivers.
Bossman Warren Sharp has highlighted how strong Lamar Jackson performed against heavy boxes as a passer last year. The addition of Henry only strengthens the frequency of those looks.
