Week 13 DFS Picks: Tournament Plays

Every Sunday in the weekly fantasy chats, I get asked about my favorite plays of the week or who is in my player pool that weekend for DFS.

This article series covers exactly that.

Every week, I will go through the players I am targeting to play in DFS for all games, tournaments, and game stacks.

The idea is that this will paint a clearer picture of framing lineups.

Week 13 DFS Content:

It is not that tournament players cannot be used in cash games.

If a player here works out for your team structure in cash games surrounding your primary core, use them.

These are just the players that come with some element of inherent risk but are the primary players that I still want to be ahead of the field compared to the percentage of rosters they are projected to make this weekend.

I will analyze the player selections and game writeups, but for a detailed breakdown of the players and games, check out the Week 13 Worksheet.

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts ($7,700/$9,200)

The Eagles only have a 41.8% dropback rate since their Week 5 bye.

Their highest dropback rate in a game over that stretch is 48.6%.

Opponents against Baltimore have a 68.3% dropback rate, with the lowest being 55.4%.

With the Eagles as road underdogs and facing a strength-on-strength matchup in the run game versus a softer pass defense, the hope is that Hurts and this passing game will finally be pushed.

An increase in dropbacks gives Hurts added upside for passing production and scrambles.

Since their bye, Hurts is fifth in the NFL in completion rate (70.2%) and third in yards per pass attempt (9.7 Y/A).

C.J. Stroud ($6,400/$8,000)

Stroud scored more fantasy points on Sunday (15.7) than he had in a game since Week 6, but it was still only good for a QB14 finish in a week in which only 26 teams played.

Stroud has now dipped to 28th in the league in completion rate (63.1%), 21st in yards per pass attempt (7.3 Y/A), and 27th in touchdown rate (3.5%).

But this spot is as good as we may get again for Stroud’s prospects as a QB1.

His last QB1 game did come against Jacksonville, a team we have not only picked on all season long, but Stroud has also beaten up for three QB1 scoring weeks over three matchups.

Stroud was QB7, scoring a season-high 23.5 points when these teams played in Week 4 after he closed as the QB4 (30.9 points) and QB10 (20.6 points) in this matchup in 2023.

The Jaguars have allowed the most passing points per attempt (0.558) and passing points per game (18.9).

The Jaguars have allowed the second-most points over their opponent's average entering the matchup, so they have pushed opponents up.

Anthony Richardson ($5,800/$7,800)

Richardson has made this space successfully and unsuccessfully over the past two weeks, but taking another bite at his potential upside here makes sense.

We knew Richardson was hyper-volatile against the Detroit pass defense, and the results bore that out.

He was pressured 43.3% of his dropbacks (4th highest in Week 12) and was not sacked.

But from a clean pocket on Sunday, Richardson was 10-of-16 (62.5%) for 163 yards (10.2 Y/A).

New England is 28th in pressure rate (29.5%).

We saw Richardson get another 10 rushes (61 yards), the second time he has hit double-digit attempts in as many weeks.

The Patriots are 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.499).

The natural added matchup appeal for Richardson is the use of play-action.

Richardson is second in the NFL in rate of play action (34.0%).

The Patriots have allowed the league’s highest rating on play-action passes (132.3), a 74.7% completion rate (30th) for 9.3 Y/A (25th), and an 8.8% touchdown rate (31st).

Running Back