DFS Showdown Analysis: Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals, TNF Week 2

Cleveland is a 6-point favorite at home against Cincinnati with a total of 43.5, down from the opener of 46. The expected game script is that the Browns roll over the Bengals and lean on their duo of stud running backs. This would improve Nick Chubb’s outlook compared to last week, as most of his production comes from rush attempts, which should increase when leading.

When these two teams played last year, Chubb had over twice the rushing yards in the game the Browns led often, compared to the game they trailed. In last week’s blowout loss, he had only 11 touches compared to Kareem Hunt’s 19. Joe Mixon is a workhorse back, and in spite of the projected negative game-script, I want to be way over the field on him. He was still given 20 touches in last week’s loss. In 2019, Cleveland gave up the ninth most DK points to running backs, and in Mixon’s two games against them he had 362 total yards and three touchdowns with four catches.

I’m pretty low on Baker Mayfield in general, considering his struggles in spite of having a strong core of skill players around him. He has a good matchup with the Bengals’ pass D allowing the seventh-most yards per pass, but last season in the same matchup he threw five interceptions and took seven sacks. Now missing David Njoku, I plan to be well under his slate-topping 14.3% projected CPT roster rate (70.9% total).

As CPT, Burrow has enough rushing upside that I’m fine stacking him with 1+ pass-catcher rather than requiring double-stacks, but With Mayfield, I’ll opt for 2+.

The Browns defense looks good on paper, but they are missing two starting cornerbacks. John Ross had the most snaps of all Bengals skill players and was targeted five times. Despite playing less than two-thirds of the snaps, A.J. Green received nine targets and 44% of the team’s air yards. Tyler Boyd was just under Ross in snaps and also had five targets.

Last week, the Ravens had success throwing to the slot and deep to the outside, where Boyd and Ross spent most of their time. Green projects to have a tough matchup vs elite corner Denzel Ward.

Mayfield and Beckham are still struggling to find on-field chemistry; the 10 targets in Week 1 are promising. The four catchable targets are not. I’ve preferred Jarvis Landry in this offense, but he does carry a questionable tag.

C.J. Uzomah caught 4 of 5 targets for 45 yards last week, while the Browns allowed 22.8 DK points to Mark Andrews. In 2019, Cleveland gave up the eighth-most DK points to the tight end position.

There were seven instances in 2019 when a tight end cleared 50 receiving yards against the Bengals. Last week, Hunter Henry was targeted eight times against Cincinnati and caught five balls for 83 yards. Austin Hooper was only targeted twice last week, but with Njoku out, he could get a bump. However, he is priced as an elite tight end and may still carry some popularity from his strong 2019 showing.

I would not be at all surprised if the game plays out close or if the Bengals run away with it. I want to build lineups around those alternate game scripts as well as a small percentage around a shootout. The total is low, but both teams are stacked with explosive weapons.

When using an RB at CPT, I’ll rule out the opposing DST. Both DST make for high ceiling plays here. We know Mayfield is capable of volatile play and Burrow is making just his second start with no preseason reps. I will use standard build rules to prevent both DST in the same lineup as well as Max 2 K/DST and Max 1 K.

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