Every passing week gives us more and more information about each team. As we get into the bye weeks, it’s important that we see how the season has gone on but we also need to check into more recent trends.
One of the best parts about the pace tool is that you can split into separate weeks. On the left, we’ll take a look at the overall season pace while on the other side we narrowed it down to just the past three weeks. Most of the teams are within a few spots in either direction of their season-long pace. The Tennessee-Houston Game looks like it’s going to be one of the fastest-paced games on the slate.
Old Fashioned Tennessee Shootout
The Texans are out from under the iron fist of Bill O’Brien and they made a concerted effort to get Deshaun Watson ($7,000) going.
Last week, Houston had its highest early-down pass rate of the season. Getting Watson into that rhythm on early downs led to the highest scoring output from the Texans in real football terms and his highest fantasy scoring day of the year. In my view, there are two real options to stack with Watson, Will Fuller ($6,800) and Brandin Cooks ($5,000).
If you’re a believer in the heatmap tool – which you should be – then you’d have to be in on Cooks this week.
This is a textbook example of when a receiver does his best work exactly where a defense is at its worst. The most obvious correlation plays are Derrick Henry ($7,300) if you think that the Titans lead for most of the game or A.J. Brown ($5,600) if you think it’s a competitive shootout.
The Dolphins have, surprisingly, been one of the most entertaining offenses so far this season. They pass, and then they pass again, and then they pass some more.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900) is one of the best points per dollar plays on the entire slate. It will come with ownership but one of the best ways to limit your chance at a duplicated lineup is to play full game stacks. The community as a whole doesn’t do nearly enough double-stacking.
DeVante Parker ($6,300) is the primary target hog in this offense but that will be a popular pairing. You can add in Preston Williams ($4,700) in hopes that the Jets can keep pace and force the Dolphins to keep throwing. If you think that the Dolphins run away with it, then Myles Gaskin ($5,400) makes a ton of sense.
When they get Gaskin out in space, he’s been more successful than league average in rushing success rate. Over the past three weeks, Gaskin has seen a higher opportunity share than Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, and James Robinson. The only truly viable Jet to complete the game stack is Jamison Crowder ($6,100). Crowder is tied with Amari Cooper in targets per game so far this season.
More Fun in Florida
The heatmap of wide receivers against Jacksonville is truly woeful. Across the entire field from 0-20 yards, you’re in a sea of red against this Jacksonville secondary. It doesn’t take much to fit in against the Jaguars, but Kenny Golladay ($6,200) certainly works.
Matthew Stafford ($6,300) seems to be trending in the right direction again. Last week marked the first time he broke 20 DK Points this year. It was his lowest yardage output but he threw for three scores which cures a lot of issues. Detroit is tied for the seventh-highest explosive pass play rate so far this year.
Coming back on the Jaguars side, D.J. Chark looks to be in real danger of missing this week’s contest. If he does, Laviska Shenault ($5,200) becomes really interesting. They’ve made a concerted effort to include him in the flow of the game. He’s seen at least a half dozen targets in each of the last three games.
This is another situation where we’re not exactly looking at the ‘85 Bears so we should be taking shots at this game. Arguments could be made for Keelan Cole ($4,900) as well, but he was buoyed by a touchdown last week after another inefficient performance.
Min-Priced Wide Receiver? Min-Priced Wide Receiver!
We’ll wrap this week up with another min-priced wide receiver. Darnell Mooney ($3,000) is tied for the second-most targets on the team with Nick Foles at the helm.
He’s completely overtaken Anthony Miller ($4,300) on the depth chart despite what their prices say. Mooney outsnapped Miller 41-26 in Week 5.
The Panthers have offered very little resistance to opposing wide receivers and if Mooney finds the end zone he essentially pays off immediately.