In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
As the only game on the Sunday slate with a total over 50 points, this matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts stands out as the obvious game to stack this week.
One of the players worth adding to a game stack is Rob Gronkowski ($4,400) who should be able to take advantage of a Colts’ defense struggling to defend tight ends.
Tight ends have seen a 25% target share against the Colts, while averaging 7.8 yards per target.
Some recent tight end performances against the Colts:
- Dawson Knox: 6 receptions on 10 targets, 80 yards
- Dan Arnold: 5 receptions on 8 targets, 67 yards
Gronk will be one of the better tight ends the Colts have faced and should post strong numbers if this turns into a high-scoring game.
With the Colts likely playing from behind, we should also expect a strong workload for Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600). Pittman leads Indy with a 23% target share while trailing:
When playing from behind, Pittman also sees 26% of his targets on the deep ball, potentially allowing for some big plays in this matchup against Tampa Bay.
DFS VALUE: HOUSTON TEXANS RUNNING BACK DAVID JOHNSON
You’ve probably avoided the Houston Texans in your DFS lineups this year, but the New York Jets defense gives us reason to consider some new options this week.
As Houston played with a lead for much of last week’s win over the Tennessee Titans, David Johnson ($4,500) reached double-digit carries for the first time this season. Houston is favored by three points in this game, so a similar workload is possible against New York.
Since Tyrod Taylor returned at quarterback in Week 9, Johnson is also second on the team in targets.
Knowing Johnson should have a solid role in both the run and passing games, his salary looks like a potential steal this week.
Johnson’s lack of fantasy production (6.5 points per game) is partially due to having not reached the end zone since Week 1. The Jets’ 32nd-ranked scoring defense certainly increases the odds he reaches paydirt on Sunday.
DFS VALUE: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS WIDE RECEIVER LAQUON TREADWELL
If you’re reaching into the bargain bin for wide receivers, consider Laquon Treadwell ($3,000), who should see an increased role in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense while filling in for Jamal Agnew, who was placed on injured reserve.
Treadwell saw a season-high three targets last week, while playing 72% of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps.
Agnew ranked third on the Jaguars in explosive play rate in the passing game (plays of 20 or more yards), so Treadwell will likely get some opportunities for big plays in Agnew’s absence.
Though Treadwell’s usage has been limited thus far, he has seen an average depth of target at 13.9 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Treadwell wouldn’t be a DFS consideration versus most opponents, but against the Atlanta Falcons’ 31st-ranked scoring defense, it’s reasonable to think his ceiling is much higher than his salary.
