The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Round Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.

MiamiRank@BuffaloRank
10.5Spread-10.5
17Implied Total27.5
23.411Points/Gm28.42
23.524Points All./Gm17.92
59.427Plays/Gm64.812
63.921Opp. Plays/Gm62.311
6.12Off. Yards/Play6.13
5.314Def. Yards/Play5.19
38.65%25Rush%41.47%18
61.35%8Pass%58.53%15
38.86%6Opp. Rush %38.82%5
61.14%27Opp. Pass %61.18%28

Against the Spread

Bills: 8-7-1
Dolphins: 9-8

Bills ATS at Home: 3-4
Dolphins ATS Away: 4-5

Bills ATS as Favorite: 8-7-1
Dolphins ATS as Underdog: 4-3

Game Overview

Our second divisional matchup of the weekend, these teams split in the regular season. Miami won at home back in Week 3 21-19 while the Bills held their ground at home in Week 15 with a 32-29 win. 

So much of this game does orbit the health of Tua Tagovailoa, who has still not yet been cleared for football activity. With Tagovailoa on the field, Miami has averaged 6.7 yards per play compared to 5.9 yards per play with Teddy Bridgewater and just 4.5 yards per play with Skylar Thompson on the field. 

The largest area of weakness for Miami through their quarterback shuffle this season has been performance on third downs. With Tua in the game, 40.6% of their set of downs have reached third down while they have converted 39.8% and 32.3% of third and longs. 

With Bridgewater in the game, 42.2% of their set of downs have reached third down with a 25.9% conversion rate and a 13.3% rate on third and long. 

With Thompson in, 50.6% of their set of downs reach third down while the team has a 31.7% conversion rate and a 7.7% rate on third and long situations. 

Miami’s defense also has just not traveled at all this season. Miami has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the road (25th) and 2.58 points per drive in those games. Only the Bears were worse (2.77 points allowed per drive on the road). Miami has allowed opponents to score on 45.9% of their drives on the road (31st) with a touchdown on 29.6% of those possessions (30th). The Dolphins have forced a turnover on just 7.6% of opponent drives (30th and the worst of all playoff teams) while they had just two takeaways on the road all season, the fewest in the league.

The Bills have not been as pristine offensively as they were in 2021, but they are still at the front of the league in just about all categories. Buffalo is third in yards per play (6.1), second in points per drive (2.51), and second in rate of scoring drives (45.0%). At home, all of those go up as they have averaged a league-high 6.5 yards per play, 2.56 points per drive (second), and have scored on 47.3% of their drives (third).

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