The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Browns and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 22.3 | 18 | Points/Gm | 13.7 | 32 |
| 29.0 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 24.3 | 21 |
| 53.7 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 67.8 | 2 |
| 61.3 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.3 | 4 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.1 | 31 |
| 6.3 | 31 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 4 |
| 36.65% | 29 | Rush% | 34.64% | 31 |
| 63.35% | 4 | Pass% | 65.36% | 2 |
| 49.18% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 45.86% | 23 |
| 50.82% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 54.14% | 10 |
- This is the first time the Browns have been favored since Week 11 of last season, when they lost 35-14 to the Saints.
- The Browns have lost four consecutive games as favorites going back to last season.
- The Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on a league-high 60% of their possessions this season. That is the highest rate for a team through six weeks of a season in the 2000s.
- The Browns have scored on a league-low 25.4% of their drives.
- Miami is 31st in EPA as a pass defense (-54.5).
- Miami is 32nd in EPA as a rush defense (-7.3).
- Miami is 31st in the league in differential of 20-yard plays on offense compared to 20-yard plays allowed on defense (-11).
- Cleveland is 29th in the league in 20-yard plays on offense (14).
- The Browns have gained 10 or more yards on a league-low 14.7% of their offensive plays.
- 28.3% of the runs against Cleveland have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 28.8% of the Cleveland runs have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- Miami is allowing a league-high 101.3 explosive rushing yards per game.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has one scoring week in the top half of weekly scoring, which came against a passive Carolina defense.
He has been as volatile as any quarterback from down to down this season.
Tua has produced 1.0 EPA or better on 26.9% of his dropbacks, QB8 on the season.
However, he has also produced an EPA of -1.0 or worse on 17.9% of his dropbacks, ranking QB27 on the year.
The only quarterback to finish higher than QB16 against the Browns has been Lamar Jackson, leaving Tua as a QB2 this weekend, attached to a team total just below 20 points.
If looking for some avenues for success as a QB2, the Browns have not had as much success rushing veteran quarterbacks in recent weeks.
Over the past three weeks against Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Aaron Rodgers, the Browns are 25th in the league in pressure rate (30.3%).
The Browns have a 3.2% sack rate against those passers (28th).
We know Miami is going to build around having Tua get the ball out of his hands, but when he has done that, things have not always gone well.
Tagovailoa’s 3.8% interception rate is ahead of just Geno Smith (5.4%) and Jake Browning (6.5%) among qualifiers.
If looking for a path to preventing turnovers, Tua has not thrown any of his interceptions against man coverage.
Cleveland leads the NFL in rate of man coverage (45% of snaps).
Tagovailoa has completed 67.7% of his passes against man coverage (third in the league) for 7.0 Y/A (13th) with a league-high 19.4% touchdown rate.
Dillon Gabriel: Gabriel has completed 57.6% and 55.8% of his passes for 5.8 Y/A and 4.2 Y/A in his first two NFL starts.
Gabriel has been under siege in both matchups, getting pressured on 40% and 43.1% of his dropbacks against the Vikings and Steelers.
On his pressured dropbacks, Gabriel has completed 50% of his passes for 4.5 yards per pass attempt.
But even when kept clean these past two weeks, Gabriel has a league-low 60% completion rate and league-low 5.0 Y/A.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Gabriel has completed 7 of 23 passes (30.4%) for 4.9 Y/A.
The Browns lost both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Cam Robinson, last week.
Conklin is in concussion protocol this week.
Robinson suffered a knee injury and did not return to the game.
We will follow their status this week, as well as that of pass catcher David Njoku, all of whom are impactful players for Gabriel’s ceiling.
It is hard to vault Gabriel as more than a matchup-based QB2 here, but at least you can point to the matchup being significantly lighter than his first two draws.
Miami has allowed 16.4 passing points per game (27th), allowing a league-high 74.9% completion rate, 8.0 Y/A (29th), and a 6.3% touchdown rate (25th).
Running Back
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More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
| Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
| Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |
