The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.

MiamiRank@Tampa BayRank
18.8Implied Total29.3
27.225Points All./Gm26.223
70.530Opp. Plays/Gm65.823
432Off. Yards/Play5.910
5.513Def. Yards/Play5.719
45.39%26Opp. Rush %26.62%1
54.61%7Opp. Pass %73.38%32
  • Miami has allowed the most passing plays of 20-plus yards (20).
  • Tom Brady is tied for the league lead in completions to gain 20-plus yards (23).
  • Just 17.7% of the Miami plays on first or second down have resulted in a new set of downs, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 27.4%.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 4.1 yards per play on first and second down, the fewest in the league.
  • 34.3% of the rushing plays against Tampa Bay have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards


Tom Brady: Touchdown regression did not waste time finding Brady early in the season. After throwing nine touchdown passes in the opening two weeks of the season, Brady has thrown just one touchdown the past two weeks, course correcting things early on. 

Brady is coming off his worst game of the year, completing just 51.2% of his passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots decided to not blitz Brady (17.8% of the time) and play coverage all game, When they did blitz Brady, was 6-of-8 for 12.4 Y/A. Will former Bill Belichick understudy Brian Flores do the same, or continue to spam sending pressures this Sunday?

Miami has blitzed 35.9% of the time, second in the league. Teams have only blitzed Brady 20.5% of the time, but when they have, his is 28-of-39 (71.8%) for 8.6 Y/A. 

Miami has opened the year in the middle of the road against fantasy passers, allowing 16.7 passing points per game (17th) against Mac Jones, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, and Carson Wentz. When they have struggled, it has been giving up big plays. Miami has allowed the most completions of 20-plus yards and is allowing a 48.5% completion rate (25th) on throws over 15 yards downfield. Brady is back in play as a lower-end QB1.

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