The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Dolphins vs. Vikings Week 4 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0 | Spread | -11.0 | ||
| 13.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 12.0 | 31 | Points/Gm | 23.7 | 16 |
| 28.7 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 13.7 | 2 |
| 57.7 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 28 |
| 55.0 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.0 | 30 |
| 5 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 32 |
| 6.1 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5 |
| 45.1% | 14 | Rush% | 50.9% | 3 |
| 54.9% | 19 | Pass% | 49.1% | 30 |
| 53.9% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 36.3% | 3 |
| 46.1% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 63.7% | 30 |
- Minnesota leads the league in total defensive EPA (40.8).
- The Vikings are allowing a league-low 1.11 points per drive.
- Miami is allowing a league-high 3.07 points per drive.
- Vikings games are averaging a league-low 558.0 combined yards per game.
- Minnesota has reached third down on a league-high 66.7% of its sets of downs on offense. The league average is 46.7%.
- Miami has reached third down on 59.4% of its sets of downs on offense (30th).
- Minnesota is last in the league in success rate on passing plays (25.6%).
- Miami is 31st (29.5%).
- The Dolphins are the ninth team in the Super Bowl era without a sack through the first three games of a season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Dolphins vs. Vikings Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Kyler Murray
In his first full game with Minnesota, Murray completed 15 of 29 passes (51.7%) for 168 yards (5.8 Y/A), with 1 touchdown and an interception.
He rushed for 17 yards, ending the week as the QB27 (10.4 points).
We were looking for our first full reveal with Murray in this new offense, and we still left with an incomplete picture given the circumstances.
Justin Jefferson left the game after running 2 routes.
There was no run game.
We got a glimpse of a few top-down elements.
Murray was under center for 47.3% of his dropbacks (13th in Week 3) and 28.1% of his passes (11th).
The Vikings used play action on 31% of his dropbacks (11th).
Those are core principles of the Kevin O'Connell offense that we wondered would stay with Murray, since he hasn't done those things to this point in his career.
Now, Murray threw between the numbers on 41.2% of his throws (21st) and still wanted to chuck the ball downfield, which are tenets of his playstyle that don't necessarily fit the structure of this offense.
25% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (3rd highest last week), and 41.7% were 10 or more yards downfield (7th).
He went 4 for 10 for 103 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, on throws of 10 or more yards.
It was just one game, but it felt like Murray playing in an O'Connell offense, which was a questionable fit.
That said, let's see how things come together between the two.
This is a spot where the Vikings should be able to operate with minimal resistance.
The defense should do its part, and the entire menu should be open against this Miami defense.
If Jefferson is back at full speed, then that's icing on the cake.
I would still prefer to use Murray as a matchup-based QB2 but wouldn't really push back if gamers were taking a swing on him in 1QB formats.
The Dolphins rank 30th in pressure rate (28%) and have not recorded a sack through three games.
They have allowed a league-high 80.3% completion rate, 9.1 yards per pass attempt (31st), and a 9.2% touchdown rate (30th).
Against the play-action pass this season, quarterbacks against the Dolphins have completed 26 of 29 passes (89.7%) for 370 yards (12.8 Y/A) and 3 touchdowns.
Malik Willis
Willis and this passing game have struggled to get off to a good start.
That is not a shock given the young personnel here, but for gamers, Willis has kicked off the season with weeks as the QB14, QB21, and QB28.
His best week came with a rushing touchdown.
We did see Willis rush 9 times for 56 yards Sunday against the Chiefs, but there is little passing production to latch onto.
Willis is a back-end QB2 here.
Willis is 33rd in passing points per attempt (0.292), right below Cam Ward.
He has the fifth-highest depth of target (9.1 air yards), which has led to him completing 8.1% fewer passes than expected (31st).
When pressured, Willis is 13 of 27 (48.15) for 5.1 Y/A with no touchdowns.
He has taken a sack on 25% of his pressures (28th).
When blitzed, he has completed 43.5% of his throws (10 of 23), which ranks 30th in the league.
Those are problems for this matchup.
The Vikings are second in pressure rate (43.7%) and blitz at the highest rate in the league (68.4%).
They lead the NFL with 14 sacks.
This is the first time that Brian Flores has had a chance to face the Dolphins.
We know there is bad blood between Flores and Miami owner Stephen Ross, so this one could be ugly.
Dolphins vs. Vikings Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 4 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns | Thursday Night Football |
| Colts vs. Commanders | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Panthers | Sunday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Saints | Monday Night Football |