Patriots vs. Bills Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 4

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 matchup.

Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Patriots vs. Bills Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Josh Allen

Allen was not at his best on Sunday, completing 16 of 26 (61.5%) passes for 204 yards (7.8 Y/A) with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

He also lost a fumble.

He added 22 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground but fell short of lofty expectations on Sunday, finishing as the QB19 (17.5 points).

Allen also appeared to suffer a knee injury in the fourth quarter.

He finished the game but had only 1 designed run afterward.

For a team with larger goals, Allen's preservation should be paramount.

The Bills also are in a position to really put the screws on New England, though.

If Buffalo wins this game, they will have a commanding head start on the Patriots for the division.

Allen does not miss games (he has started 143 straight games, including the postseason), so we should expect him to play through most things, but that is something to monitor since so much of his upside comes via his rushing output.

Allen has 47.4 fantasy points via rushing alone.

Those points alone would make him QB16 for the season.

It is not that Allen can't get over via passing.

He is QB12 in passing points (15.8 per game).

Again, we will follow his injury this week to get clarity on the severity and whether any panic is warranted about his rushing floor.

But if we remove the rushing component from his game, he becomes more of a mortal QB1 versus the definitive player at the position.

The Patriots are still a respectable defense that has done its part this season.

The Patriots are second in expected points allowed to opposing passers.

Trevor Lawrence threw 3 touchdowns against New England on Sunday, but they also held him to 6.3 yards per pass attempt, with an interception and 182 yards through the air.

When these teams played a year ago, Allen added 53 and 48 rushing yards to his totals.

He threw for 8.2 Y/A and 6.9 Y/A in those games, but in the latter matchup, he threw 3 touchdown passes for 193 yards (much like last week's game from Lawrence).

If Allen does have any movement restrictions, the Patriots will test him.

New England is blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league (45.2%) and generating pressure on 51.1% of blitzes (7th).

Drake Maye

Things did not get better for Maye on Sunday.

He completed 14 of 25 passes (56%) for 199 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Maye has been a turnover factory to open the season, posting a league-worst 8.6% turnover-worthy play rate.

Through three weeks, the only quarterback with a worse rating than Maye's 58.6 mark is Jameis Winston.

Rating isn't everything because a good one can mask some things, but a bad rating almost always tells the truth.

If you prefer EPA per dropback, Maye is 29th (-0.21).

Success rate?

Maye climbs to 23rd on pass plays (40.4%).

Money spots are killing Maye.

On third downs, he has completed 52% of his passes (25th) for 5.5 Y/A (25th) and a 12% interception rate (32nd).

In the red zone, he has completed 37.5% of his passes (30th) with a 12.5% first down/touchdown rate (31st), taking a sack at 20% (27th) and posting a 25% interception rate (31st).

I don't believe there is one thing wrong here (well, outside of ball protection).

Maye is not beating the strength-of-schedule allegations from a year ago.

He is a young quarterback with high expectations going through his first rough patch.

His wide receiver unit is worse than last season.

He is being pressured at a 42.4% rate (24th in the league).

He is holding the ball a long time, ranking 26th in time to throw.

When Maye has held the ball longer than 2.5 seconds from the snap, he has completed 51.1% of his passes (24 of 47) with zero touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

And who knows if something is going on with his shoulder that he chose not to have surgery on this offseason.

For fantasy purposes, Maye has been the QB27, QB25, and QB32.

Like Justin Herbert, there is no reason to keep playing him in 1QB leagues when points are readily available on the waiver wire.

This is a strong streaming week, so you should have options in those formats if you have not already made the move.

Maye actually had some poor matchups to open the year, so gamers may have already gone in another direction.

If you want to chase the potential game environment here in 2QB formats or have no choice, a reminder that we were in the same spot last week with Herbert.

Patriots vs. Bills Fantasy Running Back Preview

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