The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Broncos vs. 49ers Week 4 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 22.75 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 20.0 | 21 | Points/Gm | 32.7 | 2 |
| 23.3 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 16.7 | 3 |
| 55.3 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 54.3 | 31 |
| 68.0 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 25 |
| 5 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 7.3 | 1 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 7 |
| 41.0% | 21 | Rush% | 49.1% | 7 |
| 59.0% | 12 | Pass% | 50.9% | 26 |
| 41.7% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 43.8% | 19 |
| 58.3% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 56.2% | 14 |
- San Francisco is the only team that has not taken a sack, the first time in franchise history they have not taken a sack over the first three games (10th team in the Super Bowl era).
- The 49ers are the only team that has run 100% of their second-half plays with the lead.
- Denver has trailed at the half in every game so far (one of five teams). They have a league-high 7 wins trailing at the half going back to last season.
- The Broncos have a league-worst -30 point differential in the first half of games (being outscored 40-10).
- Denver has outscored opponents 50-30 in the second half, fifth in the league.
- The 49ers have faced third down on 33.3% of their sets of downs, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
- When they have faced third down, the 49ers have converted a league-high 63% (17 of 27).
- Denver has gained 10 or more yards on 16.3% of their offensive plays, ahead of only the Browns (15.6%), Vikings (13.2%), and Cardinals (12.5%).
- The 49ers have gained 10 or more yards on a league-high 27% of their offensive plays.
Trust = spike production for that player
Broncos vs. 49ers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Brock Purdy
Purdy has come out on fire this season.
He has completed 72.3% of his passes (3rd) for 9.5 yards per pass attempt (2nd), 13.2 yards per completion (3rd), and a league-high 10.8% touchdown rate.
50.6% of Purdy's throws have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the league's highest rate.
The league average among qualifiers for rating is 34.5%.
San Francisco has leaned more into the pass to open 2026.
They have thrown the ball 6.7% over expectations (5th in the league) and have a pass rate over expectations in all three games.
This offense is running through Purdy.
To top that off, Purdy has rushed for 29, 30, and 34 yards in his three games.
We know Purdy can be efficient, especially against opponents like Miami and Arizona.
We should anticipate some mild regression.
Purdy ranks QB10 in expected points and QB2 in scoring.
Only Josh Allen has run hotter, and we saw Allen hit a spot of regression last week.
The 49ers are stacking enough injuries to impact things, too.
It sounds as if Trent Williams will be good for Sunday.
Mike Evans avoided a significant injury, but he's been pushing through it to this point.
I don't think you need to stream for Purdy, but I have had him as a top-five quarterback the past two weeks.
This week, he will be more of a back-end QB1.
In Week 1 against the Rams, Purdy was QB10 with 3 passing touchdowns, but he averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt and threw for only 205 yards.
We could get closer to that line against a good Denver defense, which would force the need for touchdown production.
The Broncos allowed 390 passing yards to Matthew Stafford on Sunday night, but they also allowed a 54.5% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt, and had 2 interceptions.
Stafford needed 55 attempts.
Purdy has never thrown more than 40 passes in a game.
The Broncos have faced Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Stafford, holding all three to a below-60% completion rate, so I'm giving this matchup respect.
The one added out that Purdy has here is that he is running more, which we saw at the end of last season.
Bo Nix
It was not pretty, but Nix has his best fantasy game of the early season on Sunday night against the Rams.
Nix completed just 50% of his passes for 186 yards (5.5 Y/A) with an interception.
But he threw 2 touchdowns, scored 2 two-point conversions, and added a rushing touchdown to reach QB6 (24.1 points) in Week 3.
Through three weeks, Nix has completed 60.2% of his passes (24th) for 6.5 Y/A (24th), a 4.4% touchdown rate (20th), and a 3.2% interception rate (26th).
Nix has been pressured on 42.4% of his dropbacks (24th).
When pressured, he has completed 37.8% (14 of 37) of his passes (26th) for 4.4 Y/A (24th).
Kept clean, he has completed 75% (42 of 56) of his passes (12th) for 7.9 Y/A (12th).
That matters because the San Francisco defensive line is in shambles.
Without Nick Bosa last week, the 49ers had a 24.5% pressure rate (30th).
In Weeks 1 and 2, they were fifth in pressure rate (40.7%).
Without Bosa in 2025, they were 31st in pressure rate (29.4%).
With the lack of pass rush, Raheem Morris dropped back in shell coverage 80.2% of the time and shut down the big plays.
They limited Jacoby Brissett to 5.8 Y/A last week without pressure, but he stood there and took the paper cuts, completing 33 of 41 passes (80.5%) with 2 touchdowns and 16 passing first downs when they kept him clean.
Brissett finished with 19.2 passing points (QB10) against San Francisco in Week 3 before adding a touchdown on a sneak.
Nix can do the same thing in that fringe QB1 area.
The 49ers did add Matthew Judon this week in hopes of invigorating that pass rush.
Broncos vs. 49ers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 4 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns | Thursday Night Football |
| Colts vs. Commanders | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Panthers | Sunday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Saints | Monday Night Football |
