The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 17 matchup between the Bills and Eagles.
Find a breakdown of every Week 17 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Philadelphia | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 23.3 | 16 | Points/Gm | 28.9 | 4 |
| 19.3 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 22.9 | 15 |
| 59.6 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 14 |
| 62.9 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.7 | 2 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 20 |
| 48.43% | 4 | Rush% | 50.27% | 1 |
| 51.57% | 29 | Pass% | 49.73% | 32 |
| 44.49% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 47.18% | 27 |
| 55.51% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 52.82% | 6 |
- The Bills average 3.15 points per drive at home (2nd in the league) compared to 2.27 points per drive on the road (12th).
- Buffalo has allowed 2.64 points per drive at home (29th) compared to 1.79 points per drive on the road (5th).
- Opponents have scored on 27.6% of their possessions against the Eagles over the past eight games, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Eagles lead the NFL in EPA per game as a pass defense since Week 8 (5.9).
- 58.5% (24 of 41) of the touchdowns allowed by Buffalo have been rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 55.2% (16 of 29) of touchdowns allowed by Philadelphia have been rushing, 31st.
- 51.9% (27 of 52) of Buffalo's offensive touchdowns have been rushing, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
- The Eagles have gone three plays and then punted on 28% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
- Buffalo has faced 8 or more defenders in the box on a league-high 56.5% of their rushing plays. The league average is 40.8%.
- 24.9% of the Philadelphia runs have failed to gain yardage, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen was not asked to do much lifting on Sunday, and the box score did pan out for gamers.
Allen completed 12 of 19 passes for 130 yards with 0 touchdowns against the Browns, adding 17 rushing yards.
Buffalo had 3 backfield rushing touchdowns.
As a result, Allen scored only 6.9 fantasy points, the second-fewest of his career in a game he finished and the fewest since his rookie season.
Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of his past four games.
Allen is a fantasy starter through thick and thin because of his ceiling, but it is also a hard matchup on paper, which adds volatility here.
How you handle him in DFS is the real question.
The implied game script is suggesting we proceed with some caution.
This is the type of game environment that can spark Allen if things break right and the talent in this game takes over.
The last time these teams played in 2023, they combined for 71 points in a 37-34 Philadelphia win.
Allen has four top-three scoring weeks this season, coming against the Bucs (a 44-32 win), Ravens (41-40 win), Bengals (39-34 win), and Chiefs (28-21 win).
His two other top-six weeks came against the Dolphins (31-21 win) and Patriots (35-31 win).
The Eagles are allowing 10.4 passing points per game (3rd), a league-low 55.9% completion rate, 6.3 yards per pass attempt (3rd), and a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate.
It is hard to make a case for any of the Buffalo pass catchers having a positive outlook here, something we touch on as we go.
Allen has only faced one other top-10 pass defense in terms of passing points allowed, which was the Texans.
He was the QB21 (8.1 points).
The Eagles have been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, however.
They have allowed 3.8 rushing points per game, 27th in the league.
Patrick Mahomes (66 yards and a TD), Jaxson Dart (58 yards and a TD and 17 yards and a TD), Justin Herbert (66 yards), Carson Wentz (28 yards), and Jordan Love (28 yards) all tacked on viable rushing yardage or rushing scores against the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts: Hurts was fine against Washington on Saturday, closing the week as the QB10 (19.4 points).
That has been where we have operated with Hurts this season, as a floor-based QB1.
He has been the QB13 or higher in 11 of 15 games, but a top-six scorer just three times.
The absence of the “Tush Push” has revealed itself to be a ceiling stopper.
Hurts has 8 rushing touchdowns this season, but he has rushed for a touchdown in just two of his past nine games.
We are seeing him run a little bit more outside of the short yardage attempts.
He has 39 and 40 rushing yards in the past two games.
You have to go back to Week 4 to find when he had more yards on the ground in a game than in the past two weeks.
The Bills have also given up production to mobile quarterbacks, allowing 4.0 rushing points per game (29th).
In the past two games, Shedeur Sanders (49 yards) and Drake Maye (43 yards and 2 touchdowns) have had strong rushing lines.
Baker Mayfield (39 yards and a TD), Spencer Rattler (49 yards), Lamar Jackson (70 yards and a TD), and the combination of Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor (70 yards) had solid rushing outings against the Bills.
That could be needed as Buffalo has limited passing efficiency.
Buffalo is second in passing points allowed per game (10.3), allowing a 61.3% completion rate (5th), 6.6 Y/A (8th), and 4.1% touchdown rate (10th).
The Bills have played two-high coverages 58.5% of the time, second in the league.
Hurts is 23rd in fantasy points per dropback (0.48) against two high this season.
Like Allen, Hurts has a broader range of outcomes here.
There is an outcome of this game that offers plenty of ceiling.
Hurts had 5 total touchdowns the last time he faced Sean McDermott.
Running Back
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More Week 17 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Christmas Day |
| Lions @ Vikings | Christmas Day |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Christmas Day |
| Texans @ Chargers | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Packers | Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Rams @ Falcons | Monday Night Football |
