The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets Sunday afternoon game.

PhiladelphiaRank@NY JetsRank
-6.5Spread6.5
26Implied Total19.5
25.312Points/Gm18.127
22.815Points All./Gm30.432
62.220Plays/Gm63.514
64.222Opp. Plays/Gm65.224
5.616Off. Yards/Play5.223
5.310Def. Yards/Play6.132
49.73%1Rush%34.81%31
50.27%32Pass%65.19%2
44.03%25Opp. Rush %43.65%24
55.97%8Opp. Pass %56.35%9
  • This is the 23rd straight game the Jets have been underdogs, the longest streak in the league since the Raiders 2013-2015 (27 games).
  • 32.8% of the Philadelphia rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
  • 58.1% of the Philadelphia offensive touchdowns have come via rushing, trailing only the Browns (58.6%).
  • 51.3% of the touchdowns allowed by the Jets have been rushing, 31st in the league. 
  • The Eagles are third in the NFL in explosive rushing yardage per game (77.5 yards) while the Jets are 30th (32.2).
  • Eagles running backs are averaging 2.1 yards before contact per carry, the most in the league.
  • 19.3% of the plays against the Jets have come inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is coming off his worst game of the season last week, completing 14-of-31 passes for 129 yards (4.2 Y/A), zero touchdowns, and three interceptions against the Giants. Hurts had the lowest expected completion rate (53.7%) in the league in Week 12 per Next Gen Stats and was even -8.5% below that mark, providing some déjà vu from a year ago. 

On top of that performance, Hurts suffered an ankle injury in the game. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said Tuesday that the plan is still to move forward with Hurts as the starter this weekend, but it is something to monitor for the remainder of the week. 

After scoring 20 or more fantasy points in each of his opening seven games this season, Hurts has reached that arbitrary threshold just once since. He has three passing touchdowns over his past five games and although he did drop a three-rushing touchdown performance in Week 11, that is the only game in which Hurts has a rushing touchdown over his past six games played. 

If Hurts is playing with a bad wheel, that obviously compromises his greatest attribute for fantasy. 46.1% of his fantasy production has come via rushing alone. We also have a matchup with the Jets, who can be run on while not being a great offense to counterpunch back on the Eagles. Prior to last week, Hurts had thrown the ball just 14, 17, 23, and 24 times.

The matchup is great from a passing perspective as the Jets are allowing 0.50 points per pass attempt (31st), a 70.1% completion rate (30th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (21st) to passers.

Putting everything together, there is enough risk in place due to injury and limited volume to be cautious with Hurts expecting a ceiling return. I would not stream Hurts for someone like Taysom Hill, but if I had someone such as Carson Wentz with a high floor plus upside, that would be an example of someone I explore using if I was comfortable with the rest of my lineup.

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