The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Saints and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 19.5 | 27 | Points/Gm | 15.5 | 30 |
| 23.9 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 25.0 | 21 |
| 61.1 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 17 |
| 61.0 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.8 | 15 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 28 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 9 |
| 44.03% | 15 | Rush% | 40.49% | 22 |
| 55.97% | 18 | Pass% | 59.51% | 11 |
| 48.03% | 26 | Opp. Rush % | 50.65% | 32 |
| 51.97% | 7 | Opp. Pass % | 49.35% | 1 |
- The Saints are averaging 2.1 plays of 20-plus yards per game, the fewest in the league.
- The Falcons have a league-worst 0-7 record in games they have trailed this season.
- Atlanta has averaged 4.2 yards per play on the 87 plays with Kirk Cousins on the field this season (5.7 yards per play with him off).
- Over the past six weeks, Atlanta has converted a league-low 27% of their third downs (17 of 63).
- The Saints have scored a touchdown on 1 of 24 first quarter possessions, the worst rate in the league.
- New Orleans has converted a league-low 38.5% (10 of 26) of their red zone trips into touchdowns.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tyler Shough: When we last saw Shough before the bye, he was the QB11 (19.0 points) against Carolina, completing 19 of 27 passes (70.4%) for 10.4 yards per pass attempt with 2 touchdowns.
In just his second career start and being on the road, that is something to build on.
The key was keeping him clean and allowing him to work in a clean pocket.
When pressured so far, Shough is 6 of 21 (28.6%) for 105 yards (5.0 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
Without pressure, he is 45 of 62 (72.6%) for 481 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and an interception.
That is a mild concern if turning to Shough as a QB2, but there are potential positives.
Shough faced a passive Carolina defense in Week 10.
Atlanta is 13th in pressure rate (38%) and second in blitz rate (40.8%).
52.1% of their blitzes generate pressure, third in the league.
When Shough has been blitzed, he is 8 of 18 (44.4%) with 7.4 yards per attempt.
Shough is still an early-career quarterback (I did not call him young) with a small sample size, so there is room to expand the sample here.
The thing is, aside from the pressure, Atlanta has not played very well on the back end lately.
Atlanta is fresh off allowing 448 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Bryce Young.
Young threw 10.0 yards per pass attempt.
Over their past four games, Atlanta has allowed 9.2 yards per attempt (31st), a 70.9% completion rate (28th), and a 7.9% touchdown rate (29th).
They have allowed spike weeks to Young (31.8 points) and Tua Tagovailoa (24.2 points) over that stretch, as well as 8.9 Y/A and 16.4 fantasy points to Drake Maye and 9.8 Y/A and 15.5 fantasy points to Daniel Jones.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is set to start the remainder of the season for the Falcons, as Michael Penix was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury.
When Cousins entered the game on Sunday, he completed 6 of 14 (42.9%) passes for 48 yards (3.4 Y/A).
When he started in Week 8 against Miami, he was the QB22 (7.1 points), completing 21 of 31 passes for 173 yards (5.6 Y/A) without a touchdown.
In his final five starts with Atlanta last year, Cousins was the QB17 (10.2 points), QB28 (4.9 points), QB33 (2.1 points), QB23 (9.8 points), and QB28 (6.5 points).
He has thrown 1 touchdown pass over his past 217 NFL pass attempts.
If that cannot rev the fantasy engines, nothing can.
We have seen some veterans find life (Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett recently), so we have to keep the lights on here and hold onto a sliver of optimism.
However, Cousins can only be used as a necessity in 2QB formats until we see signs of viability.
Without Drake London, this passing game is thin, and Cousins provides no rushing outlet.
Over their past six games, the Saints have allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (15th) and 10.4 yards per completion (8th).
They did allow QB1 weeks to Drake Maye (27.2 points) and Matthew Stafford (26.8 points) over that period, but also held Jaxson Dart to his lowest-scoring week (15.6 points) while limiting Caleb Williams (4.7 points), Baker Mayfield (4.1 points), and Bryce Young (1.6 points) to floor weeks.
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bills @ Texans | Thursday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Saints | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Panthers @ 49ers | Monday Night Football |
