- After a three-year stretch in which top-12 quarterback ADP carried a significant correlation with fantasy points per game, 2023 provided a throwback season where later-round options were able to compete.
- 88.1% of all quarterbacks selected in the top three of their position have delivered a QB1 campaign while nearly two-thirds of that group have produced a top-six scoring season.
- Hit rates for matching ADP, turning in top-12 seasons, and providing front-end caliber seasons all rise as rushing volume does at the position.
As we prepare for our 2024 fantasy drafts, let’s dive into the recent history of average draft positions to pull away any ongoing trends or pitfalls.
We have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft every year, but how good are we at setting the market for the season?
We are looking to hash that out here, continuing with the wide receivers.
Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:
- Quarterback Tiers
- Quarterback Rankings
- Quarterback Trends
- Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Quarterback
Pulling up average draft position since 2010, the relationship between the cost of quarterbacks and their points scored per game has a soft correlation on the surface.
We were on a strong run of drafting the position with increasing accuracy, but things were wide open last season.
Top-24 QB in ADP and Correlation to PPR Points per Game Since 2010:
| Year | Top-24 | Top-12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.1965 | 0.3021 |
| 2022 | 0.3863 | 0.5055 |
| 2021 | 0.5826 | 0.5616 |
| 2020 | 0.4995 | 0.5221 |
| 2019 | 0.3002 | 0.2538 |
| 2018 | 0.2279 | 0.3063 |
| 2017 | 0.3001 | 0.2641 |
| 2016 | 0.3591 | 0.2011 |
| 2015 | 0.3007 | 0.2671 |
| 2014 | 0.2381 | 0.3681 |
| 2013 | 0.3381 | 0.2622 |
| 2012 | 0.4958 | 0.4212 |
| 2011 | 0.2005 | 0.1679 |
| 2010 | 0.1914 | 0.2806 |
After a three-year stretch in which top-12 quarterback ADP carried a significant correlation with fantasy points per game, 2023 provided a throwback season where later-round options were able to compete.
Quarterbacks selected as QB1 options carried their lowest correlation to scoring output since the 2019 season.
Only four quarterbacks selected as QB1 options beat their positional ADP in points scored per game.
Those players were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott.
Patrick Mahomes was finally mortal, finishing outside of the top 12 in points per game.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers all missed significant time and were impacted by injuries.
Options right on the QB1 border in Daniel Jones and Geno Smith all were full-season letdowns through performance and injuries.
Brock Purdy (QB23 in ADP), Jordan Love (QB25), C.J. Stroud (QB28), and Baker Mayfield (QB32) provided four incredible late-round hits who ended the season as QB1 performers for the season while Jared Goff (QB17) was also a QB1 performer in total points.
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Percentage of High Scoring Weekly Games by Top-12 QB in ADP:
| Year | Top-12 | Top-6 | Top-3 | QB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 39.4% | 51.9% | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| 2022 | 44.4% | 53.7% | 64.8% | 72.2% |
| 2021 | 52.1% | 64.8% | 79.6% | 88.9% |
| 2020 | 50.5% | 58.8% | 70.6% | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 37.3% | 39.2% | 45.1% | 52.9% |
| 2018 | 41.2% | 40.2% | 47.1% | 41.2% |
| 2017 | 34.3% | 36.3% | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| 2016 | 43.1% | 51.0% | 62.7% | 64.7% |
| 2015 | 39.2% | 45.1% | 60.8% | 70.6% |
| 2014 | 43.6% | 51.0% | 60.8% | 52.9% |
Looking at the past 10 seasons, you can see how front-end quarterbacks had some recoil from previous seasons.
Quarterbacks selected as QB1 in ADP ended up producing 39.4% of the QB1 scoring weeks last season, their lowest rate since 2019.
They also accounted for a lower rate of high-end scoring weeks, but those QB1 options based on draft capital were still responsible for over half of the league’s top-six and top-three scoring weeks while accounting for two-thirds of the QB1 overall weekly performances.
While players such as Purdy, Goff, Love, Stroud, and Mayfield were great late-round finds, those archetypes still had a harder time producing elite scoring weeks that led the position. Those players combined for nine total weeks inside of the top three.
Mayfield had only one top-six scoring week while Stroud only had two.
Goff and Stroud were the only ones in that group to be the top-scorer for the league in a given week last year.
Patrick Mahomes finally had a down season for gamers, keeping a trend going.
The last time the QB1 in ADP also closed the season as the QB1 in overall scoring was Aaron Rodgers in 2011.
Of the top 50 scoring fantasy seasons for quarterbacks since 2010, just five of them have been quarterbacks selected as the QB1 in fantasy drafts.
There has been almost no advantage to taking the first quarterback in your fantasy league in the context of gaining significant leverage on the field.
While that seems disparaging on the surface, remember the context and expectations that come with that draft selection.
These players have not completely matched and shattered those expectations, but they also have rarely bricked as well.
Unlike at the other fantasy positions, the floor here remains high even if you fall short of expectations by swinging big at quarterback.
Last season, Mahomes was the first time that the overall QB1 in ADP was not a QB1 scorer in points per game since Cam Newton in 2016.
He was the first quarterback since Newton who was the overall QB1 in ADP and averaged fewer than 18.5 fantasy points per game while Peyton Manning in 2015 was the only passer with an ADP in the top three of the position to score fewer than 16.5 points per game.
Outside of 2QB/Superflex formats, the QB1 overall is not going to set you back in the context of the position.
QB Tiers and Rate of Players Matching/Exceeding Draft Position and High-Scoring Rates:
| QB ADP | Match+ | QB1% | Top-6% | Top-3% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-3 | 35.7% | 88.1% | 64.3% | 35.7% | 20.4 |
| QB4-6 | 33.3% | 54.8% | 33.3% | 21.4% | 18.4 |
| QB7-9 | 47.6% | 59.6% | 23.8% | 14.3% | 17.1 |
| QB10-12 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 15.5 |
| QB13-18 | 63.1% | 40.1% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 15.2 |
| QB19-24 | 58.3% | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 14.6 |
There are arbitrary cutoffs here, but by splitting up our ADP pie into front-end quarterbacks (top three in ADP), the secondary tier (QB4-6 in ADP), back-half QB1 options (QB7-9 and QB9-12), front-half QB2 (QB13-18) and back-half QB2 (QB19-24), we can further dissect the hit rates at the position and illuminate how the front of the position has carried more weight.
This also highlights the concept of “area drafting,” which can present the right pocket of the position to be in on or prevent you from unnecessarily forcing a position because you deem it a need in drafts.
The top six quarterbacks have a lower rate of matching their draft cost due to a tighter margin of error, but you can also see the rate at which players from those tiers deliver high-floor paired with high-ceiling seasons.
88.1% of all quarterbacks selected in the top three of their position have delivered a QB1 campaign while nearly two-thirds of that group have produced a top-six scoring season.
That is why if you are in a league that requires you to start multiple quarterbacks, you should be aggressive in pursuing the position.
You can run into values when waiting at the position in those formats, but it is much harder to land a front-end scoring season the further you move on.
You can see above that there is a bit of a firewall at the position once you clear the top half of the QB1 group and diminishing returns as move down the line.
The largest trap area has been that immediate bucket right after the front-end options, but there is a consistent decline in the hit rate of elite seasons based on draft capital.
While the QB4-6 group has had higher bust rates, that group still has provided a high rate of top-six and top-three scoring seasons.
What is intriguing here is how the lower-end QB1 and front-half of the QB2 options blend from a points-per-game stance paired with a tighter rate of QB1, top-six, and top-three seasons.
Once the elite options are gone from the player pool, this is where you see gamers often start to roster fill. They force the position, even though the rates in which that subset of options can produce truly difference-making seasons plummets and points per game tighten up.
When in Doubt at QB1, Draft a Runner
Back-end QB1 options still have a historical edge in success over the front half of QB2 plays, but you will have to question the squeeze versus continuing to wait.
Especially if that option does not come along with mobility, you are best to sit tight and go in another direction.
Rate of QB1 Matching/Exceeding Draft Position Based on Rushing:
| RuAtt/Gm | Count | Match+ | QB1% | Top-6% | Top-3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0+ | 12 | 75.0% | 75.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 6.0+ | 29 | 51.7% | 65.6% | 51.7% | 37.9% |
| 4.0+ | 54 | 38.9% | 66.7% | 48.2% | 31.5% |
| 3.0+ | 80 | 36.3% | 65.0% | 42.5% | 26.3% |
| 2.0+ | 119 | 35.3% | 62.2% | 36.1% | 21.8% |
| Under 2.0 | 50 | 30.0% | 56.0% | 34.0% | 14.0% |
Looking at only quarterbacks who were selected as QB1 players (top 12) since 2010 and factoring in rushing attempts per game for those players, you can see how the success rate of the position is impacted by the ability to run.
I wrote the original #KonamiCode article all of the way back in 2013, but it is still prevalent today in finding not only an edge in terms of ceiling but also diagnosing fragility that comes from paying a premium at the position when you are not selecting a quarterback who can also move.
Hit rates for matching ADP, turning in top-12 seasons, and providing front-end caliber seasons all rise as rushing volume does at the position.
Just 15 of the 50 quarterbacks in our sample to average fewer than 2.0 rushing attempts per game have matched their positional ADP.
Those players have produced just seven top-three scoring seasons at the position.
The last QB1 overall to average fewer than 2.0 rushes per game was Drew Brees back in 2012.
Last year, Dak Prescott was the only QB1 in ADP who rushed fewer than 4.0 times per game to match his positional ADP in points per game.
We talked about this within the quarterback tiers, but quarterbacks who have to rely on elite passing production to anchor their fantasy lines are more fragile as you invest top dollar into them.
This group does not offer many outs through their legs when those front-end passing numbers do not show up, which opens the door for an arbitrage angle when a lower-tiered quarterback of the same archetype runs hot as Purdy, Mayfield, or Goff did a year ago.
If you are selecting pocket passers, wait at the positional and take multiples at the apple.
When extending things out to quarterbacks who have not had their ADP inside of the top-12, but were massive hits, tracking a young quarterback that can run has been advantageous.
Since 2010, there have been 11 quarterbacks to finish as a top three player in points per game who were selected outside the QB1 in ADP.
| Player | Year | ADP | Games | PPG | RuAtt/Gm | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 2017 | 22 | 7 | 24.1 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2018 | 16 | 16 | 26.1 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2019 | 14 | 15 | 27.8 | 11.7 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 2016 | 19 | 16 | 21.7 | 2.2 | 9 |
| Matt Ryan | 2018 | 14 | 16 | 22.1 | 2.1 | 11 |
| Nick Foles | 2013 | 34 | 13 | 20.0 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 24 | 16 | 23.2 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2019 | 17 | 16 | 21.1 | 3.3 | 4 |
| Carson Wentz | 2017 | 16 | 13 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 2014 | 14 | 16 | 20.5 | 7.4 | 3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2018 | 13 | 16 | 21.4 | 1.9 | 15 |
Eight of those 11 quarterbacks ran the ball three or more times per game.
When in Doubt at QB2, Look For Early Career Discounts
The other thing that you will notice is that although we had renaissance seasons from Matt Ryan (two of them) and Big Ben, the largest hits have come from early-career starters.
Six of the players above were in their first season as a starting quarterback.
Fantasy gamers are notorious for needing to see something first before paying a premium sticker price, but if you want to hunt for values, something tried and true in finding players to crush ADP is drafting young players.
Last season, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love were all in their first seasons as starting quarterbacks in the league.
Anthony Richardson was also tracking to be a QB1 as a rookie and was in points per game.
Since 2010, we have had 62 different QB1 scoring seasons from quarterbacks who did not have an ADP as a QB1.
40.4% of those came from players in their first three seasons in the league.
The largest hit rate for any specific season has been year two players, which make up 12 of those 62 seasons (19.4%).
Rookies are next with 11.3% of those seasons.
Since 2017, there has been only one season (2020) that did not have a quarterback in their second season in the NFL hit as a QB1 scorer with an ADP as a QB2 option.
Since that 2010 season, we have had 59 seasons in which a QB2 in ADP finished inside of the top 12 in points scored per game at the position.
45.7% of those were players in years 1-3 of their careers.
Year two quarterbacks once again make up the largest percentage of the field, accounting for 20.3% of those seasons.
Rookies were next at 15.3%.
While the Holy Grail standouts are Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019, we have also seen several bounce-back seasons from some bad rookie quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, and Blake Bortles among that group of second-year players to hit.
It helps if you can also run but with Stafford and Goff also being severely discounted in their second seasons while having significant draft capital entering the NFL, that is an added reminder to keep the door open for Bryce Young in year two as a potential value play.
Will Levis is our other year-two starter on the board as a QB2.
Jayden Daniels is the only rookie currently being selected as a QB1, with Caleb Williams right on the edge (QB13).
But all of Bo Nix (QB30), Drake Maye (QB28), and J.J. McCarthy (QB31) are lower-end darts to throw in 2QB formats who can even be your third quarterback in those leagues.
Speaking of Daniels, he is only the second rookie quarterback to have an ADP as a QB1 (if that holds this final month) in my sample since 2010.
The other was fittingly Robert Griffin, who still provided value as the QB4 in points per game in 2012 and the QB5 in overall scoring.
Closing this out, the bullet points in play for applying ADP to your QB portfolio:
- 2023 was a return for a late-round QB, but the upper-echelon seasons still came from the front of the pack in terms of draft position.
- Don’t be the first gamer to select a quarterback in your 1QB league but be aggressive in 2QB/Superflex formats.
- If you do miss out on the front end of the position, do not force the issue on a player that does not offer mobility.
- When in doubt, break ties in favor of the QB who will run more.
- Be wary of paying a QB1 premium on pocket passers.
- Draft young players when value-hunting QB2 options.
