- The 2022 and 2023 seasons account for the two lowest years since 2010 in passing yards per game, passing scores per game, and touchdown rate.
- The 2023 season was the first in which passing plays had negative expected points per dropback this century.
- Not only are teams taking fewer deep shots in the passing game than a decade ago, but they also have become less effective at producing touchdowns.
- Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 6.5 air yards per target. He threw a career-high 29.5% of his passes at or behind the line.
As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2024 fantasy season, we are taking a top-down look at production for each fantasy position.
On Monday, we kicked things off by looking at how offenses have lagged as a whole across the league over the past two seasons.
We also dug into trends occurring within the running back, tight end, and wide receiver positions.
Now, let's take a look at the quarterback position.
Leaguewide Passing Output Since 2010:
YEAR | ATT/GM | COMP% | PAYD/GM | Y/A | PaTD/Gm | PATD% | RATING | Pass FF PPG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 67.6 | 64.47% | 439.5 | 7.0 | 2.78 | 4.12% | 89.0 | 26.9 |
2022 | 66.7 | 64.23% | 437.0 | 7.0 | 2.77 | 4.15% | 89.1 | 26.7 |
2021 | 68.8 | 64.77% | 456.6 | 7.1 | 3.09 | 4.48% | 90.8 | 28.6 |
2020 | 70.4 | 65.25% | 480.3 | 7.2 | 3.40 | 4.83% | 93.6 | 30.9 |
2019 | 69.7 | 63.47% | 469.9 | 7.2 | 3.11 | 4.46% | 90.4 | 29.4 |
2018 | 69.0 | 64.86% | 475.5 | 7.4 | 3.31 | 4.79% | 92.9 | 30.3 |
2017 | 68.3 | 62.08% | 448.7 | 7.0 | 2.89 | 4.24% | 85.1 | 27.4 |
2016 | 71.5 | 63.00% | 483.1 | 7.2 | 3.07 | 4.30% | 87.6 | 29.5 |
2015 | 71.5 | 63.00% | 487.7 | 7.3 | 3.29 | 4.60% | 88.4 | 30.5 |
2014 | 69.8 | 62.64% | 473.6 | 7.2 | 3.15 | 4.51% | 87.1 | 29.2 |
2013 | 70.8 | 61.22% | 471.2 | 7.1 | 3.14 | 4.43% | 84.1 | 28.8 |
2012 | 69.5 | 60.90% | 462.6 | 7.1 | 2.96 | 4.26% | 83.8 | 27.9 |
2011 | 68.0 | 60.10% | 459.4 | 7.2 | 2.91 | 4.28% | 82.5 | 27.3 |
2010 | 67.5 | 60.75% | 443.2 | 7.0 | 2.93 | 4.35% | 82.2 | 26.6 |
Folding the table above into what we covered yesterday about the adjustments that NFL defenses have made, the increased rate of plays out of the shotgun, reduction in play action, and quarterbacks holding the ball longer per throw and sack, it is not surprising to see how that impacted passing output in 2023.
Things slightly improved in a few metrics from the previous season, but you can easily spot the past two seasons are low marks for the league in several areas since 2010.
The leaguewide completion rate remains high given all of the short passing across the league (we’ll be getting there shortly), but the 2022 and 2023 seasons account for the two lowest years since 2010 in passing yards per game, passing scores per game, and touchdown rate.
You also have to go back to 2010 to find a season lower than each of the past two seasons in passing points per game for fantasy football.
NFL Passing Performance Over Past 10 Years:
Year | DropBack% | EPA/DB | Success% | aDOT | At Behind% | Deep% | Sack% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 60.3% | -0.01 | 39.9% | 7.70 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 7.1% |
2022 | 60.1% | 0.01 | 41.1% | 7.72 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
2021 | 61.3% | 0.03 | 41.5% | 7.76 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
2020 | 61.5% | 0.03 | 42.2% | 7.88 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
2019 | 62.0% | 0.04 | 41.7% | 8.18 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
2018 | 62.0% | 0.06 | 42.0% | 8.11 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 6.8% |
2017 | 60.6% | 0.01 | 40.7% | 8.30 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 6.4% |
2016 | 62.0% | 0.05 | 41.3% | 8.32 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 5.8% |
2015 | 62.0% | 0.05 | 40.4% | 8.36 | 18.9% | 12.1% | 6.1% |
2014 | 61.1% | 0.08 | 40.3% | 8.32 | 19.7% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
This table was in the post on Monday, but I did want to bring it back here since it tied into the quarterback position.
We will not completely repeat yesterday, but last season was the first in which passing plays had negative expected points per dropback this century.
You have to go back to the 2013 season to find a year with a worse success rate of passing plays than last season in the NFL.
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Deep Passing Output Over Past 10 Years
We did see a small uptick in deep passes from 2022, but the league’s average depth of throw keeps shrinking while we get more and more passes at or behind the line of scrimmage than we have ever had in league history.
Eventually, those two numbers can only go so low and high, but the league has had issues pressing the football down the field no matter how you want to slice the causes.
Year | Att | Comp | Comp% | TD | TD% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 2149 | 768 | 35.7% | 161 | 7.49% |
2022 | 2042 | 728 | 35.8% | 161 | 7.88% |
2021 | 2152 | 796 | 37.0% | 166 | 7.71% |
2020 | 2028 | 765 | 37.7% | 195 | 9.62% |
2019 | 2184 | 788 | 36.2% | 182 | 8.33% |
2018 | 2108 | 740 | 35.1% | 190 | 9.01% |
2017 | 2102 | 701 | 33.3% | 167 | 7.94% |
2016 | 2130 | 762 | 35.8% | 185 | 8.69% |
2015 | 2216 | 751 | 33.9% | 185 | 8.35% |
2014 | 2146 | 731 | 34.1% | 187 | 8.71% |
Not only are teams taking fewer deep shots in the passing game than a decade ago, but they also have become less effective at producing touchdowns.
Last season, NFL passers had their lowest collective touchdown rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield in all of the 2000s.
The three lowest touchdown rates on deep passes since 2000 have come over the past three seasons.
If looking for some silver lining, five of the top six seasons in completion rate on deep throws have come in each of the past five seasons.
Teams are completing a better rate of these long throws per attempt but have reduced the volume of those throws while producing fewer splash-play touchdowns.
Tightening up the depth of the targets only marginally improves things.
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, you have to go back to 2016 to find a touchdown rate on those throws lower than the past two seasons.
With the way defenses have emphasized defending vertical passing games, sending fewer blitzes, and playing less man coverage, quarterback accuracy on the shallow to intermediate levels while winning on early downs and after the catch is at a premium.
Depth of Target Rates:
wdt_ID | QB | Air/Att | AtBehind% | Deep% | YAC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
35 | Will Levis | 10.5 | 24.7 | 22.4 | 41.3 |
36 | Joe Flacco | 9.4 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 42.0 |
37 | Deshaun Watson | 9.3 | 22.2 | 13.5 | 44.8 |
38 | C.J. Stroud | 9.0 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 42.9 |
39 | Josh Allen | 8.7 | 19.9 | 13.6 | 45.8 |
40 | Baker Mayfield | 8.6 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 47.7 |
41 | Jalen Hurts | 8.6 | 21.0 | 12.6 | 44.0 |
42 | Jordan Love | 8.5 | 22.8 | 13.3 | 46.1 |
43 | Lamar Jackson | 8.4 | 22.1 | 12.5 | 47.6 |
44 | Brock Purdy | 8.2 | 19.8 | 10.6 | 47.5 |
45 | Trevor Lawrence | 8.2 | 20.7 | 12.4 | 44.5 |
46 | Desmond Ridder | 8.2 | 20.6 | 11.9 | 43.1 |
47 | Justin Fields | 8.0 | 25.4 | 14.6 | 47.8 |
48 | Joshua Dobbs | 8.0 | 19.4 | 11.0 | 40.7 |
49 | Derek Carr | 7.8 | 22.4 | 12.4 | 43.7 |
50 | Dak Prescott | 7.8 | 20.8 | 11.4 | 43.5 |
51 | Justin Herbert | 7.7 | 23.2 | 12.9 | 50.1 |
52 | Matthew Stafford | 7.7 | 20.0 | 11.3 | 47.8 |
53 | Tua Tagovailoa | 7.6 | 27.3 | 11.4 | 47.1 |
54 | Bryce Young | 7.6 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 45.2 |
55 | Sam Howell | 7.5 | 23.9 | 12.4 | 51.2 |
56 | Aidan O'Connell | 7.5 | 21.3 | 10.2 | 47.9 |
57 | Zach Wilson | 7.3 | 23.6 | 10.1 | 49.0 |
58 | Gardner Minshew | 7.3 | 19.8 | 11.0 | 47.4 |
59 | Kyler Murray | 7.2 | 22.0 | 10.4 | 54.3 |
60 | Kirk Cousins | 7.2 | 21.2 | 8.7 | 42.7 |
61 | Russell Wilson | 7.1 | 30.2 | 14.5 | 56.4 |
62 | Kenny Pickett | 7.1 | 25.3 | 9.6 | 50.5 |
63 | Mac Jones | 7.0 | 24.3 | 10.4 | 57.1 |
64 | Geno Smith | 7.0 | 25.9 | 10.0 | 47.3 |
65 | Jared Goff | 6.7 | 23.5 | 8.3 | 46.9 |
66 | Patrick Mahomes | 6.5 | 29.5 | 10.2 | 61.1 |
67 | Jake Browning | 6.4 | 32.1 | 9.9 | 57.3 |
68 | Joe Burrow | 6.4 | 28.2 | 8.5 | 53.7 |
Looking at every passer that qualified for the league’s passer rating (plus the top two Cleveland quarterbacks), we can go under the hood on their average depth of throw, their rate of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage, deep passes, and how much each relied on yards after the catch.
I wrote a lot about the potential changes for Tennessee this season transitioning to Brian Callahan in the QB Tiers.
What the 2022 team had Will Levis doing was completely all-or-nothing.
Levis was ninth in the league in the rate of throws at the line of scrimmage paired with not only leading the league in deep passing rate but was 7.7% above the next qualified passer.
While we should not expect Callahan to rein in Levis completely, the two Cincinnati quarterbacks sit at the bottom of the list of depth of target.
Patrick Mahomes is also at the bottom of the list for the first time in his career.
We ran through how Mahomes was impacted by his surrounding talent last season and how the Chiefs have attempted to rebuild their vertical passing game.
Mahomes averaged a career-low 6.5 air yards per target. He threw a career-high 29.5% of his passes at or behind the line.
As a byproduct. Mahomes led the NFL with 61.1% of his passing yards coming after the catch when his previous high was 55.8% in a season.
2023 Passing Points Per Game Leaders
QB | PaPt/Gm | Ovr. PPG Rank | RuPts/Gm |
---|---|---|---|
Dak Prescott | 18.0 | 3 | 2.1 |
Brock Purdy | 17.1 | 6 | 1.7 |
C.J. Stroud | 16.4 | 7 | 2.3 |
Jared Goff | 16.4 | 12 | 0.8 |
Tua Tagovailoa | 16.1 | 15 | 0.4 |
Jordan Love | 16.0 | 5 | 2.9 |
Matthew Stafford | 15.5 | 14 | 0.4 |
Patrick Mahomes | 15.5 | 10 | 2.4 |
Baker Mayfield | 14.9 | 15 | 1.3 |
Josh Allen | 14.8 | 1 | 8.4 |
Justin Herbert | 14.7 | 8 | 3.1 |
Lamar Jackson | 14.3 | 3 | 7.0 |
*QBs with double-digit starts
With the reduction of deep passing and longer touchdowns, passing points have been harder to come by.
Last year, Dak Prescott led the league in passing points per game among quarterbacks with double-digit starts.
That was just the fourth-best season in passing points per game over Prescott’s career.
It was the first time since 2017 that the top quarterback in passing points per game was below 20 points, and he had the fewest passing points per game for the league leader since 2006.
The other thing that you can spot by looking at the passing points leaderboard is how that does not have a clear correlation to where those players ranked in overall points per game at the position.
If you have followed my work over any amount of time, you already are dialed into the weight that rushing output has on fantasy scoring at the position.
Josh Allen was the QB1 in fantasy points per game last season but was only 10th on the list above in passing points per game.
Jalen Hurts was QB2 in fantasy scoring per game, but you cannot even find him above. He was QB18 in passing points per game (12.7).
Players such as Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa were top-five passers in passing points generated per game but could not even crack the top 10 in total fantasy points per game because they did not provide substantial rushing points.
Even guys like Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud faced ceiling limitations in overall scoring per game despite being among the best passing quarterbacks in the league.
Long Live the Konami Code
I first highlighted the value of rushing output for quarterbacks back in 2013.
All of the primary fantasy sites still weigh rushing output heavily in their base settings, which is something we can still incorporate into our draft plans.
All of this in unison is why you find the Tier 2 quarterbacks above the next grouping for fantasy, despite that lower tier objectively being better “real-life” quarterbacks.
You can always find a way to arbitrage passing points in fantasy football (especially with them trending downwards), but the rushing output is more of a finite resource despite the continued increase in rushing output at the position.
Quarterback Rushing Output Since 2010
YEAR | RUATT | League% | RuYD | League% | RuTD | League% | Rush PPG | League% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 2366 | 16.20% | 9840 | 16.06% | 114 | 24.26% | 6.13 | 18.64% |
2022 | 2331 | 15.78% | 10461 | 15.88% | 103 | 21.15% | 6.12 | 17.50% |
2021 | 2171 | 14.98% | 9442 | 15.06% | 99 | 19.60% | 5.66 | 16.54% |
2020 | 2148 | 15.57% | 9424 | 15.48% | 126 | 23.68% | 6.24 | 18.30% |
2019 | 1825 | 13.63% | 7698 | 13.32% | 80 | 17.90% | 4.59 | 14.77% |
2018 | 1871 | 14.10% | 8085 | 13.80% | 71 | 16.17% | 4.54 | 14.53% |
2017 | 1648 | 11.98% | 7125 | 12.68% | 66 | 17.37% | 4.08 | 14.04% |
2016 | 1522 | 11.43% | 6006 | 10.77% | 65 | 14.67% | 3.64 | 12.03% |
2015 | 1621 | 12.02% | 6549 | 11.75% | 61 | 16.71% | 3.75 | 13.15% |
2014 | 1647 | 12.03% | 6648 | 11.66% | 47 | 12.37% | 3.48 | 11.86% |
2013 | 1707 | 12.31% | 7266 | 12.58% | 57 | 13.90% | 3.93 | 12.97% |
2012 | 1596 | 11.46% | 6672 | 11.24% | 69 | 17.21% | 3.98 | 12.96% |
2011 | 1592 | 11.40% | 6158 | 10.27% | 66 | 16.50% | 3.72 | 12.05% |
2010 | 1420 | 10.20% | 5539 | 9.45% | 44 | 11.03% | 3.01 | 9.91% |
I often get asked when the rushing output for quarterbacks will inevitably cap out, but we still do not have that answer.
This entire rookie class of quarterbacks all have mobility.
Quarterbacks accounted for another new high rate of the league’s rushing attempts in 2023, which is still only at 16.2% of the total runs.
The position's yardage on the ground did come down last season from 2022, but the rate of the league’s production overall in the run game was at an all-time high again.
11 different quarterbacks made multiple starts and averaged over 4.0 rushing points per game (the equivalent of a passing touchdown in standard scoring).
Seven of those players averaged over 5.0 rushing points per game.
If you are looking to break the bank in fantasy at quarterback in the modern era, you need a player who can provide both passing and rushing output.
When looking at spike-week scorers at the position, they come via passers that can also run.
Among all top-12 weekly scorers in 2023, those players averaged 4.6 rushing points per game.
Top-six weekly scorers averaged 5.7 rushing points per game, and top-three scorers averaged 6.0 per game.
When taking a look at the 18 players who led the position in weekly scoring last season, just six of them posted fewer than 3.5 rushing points in that game while 11 of those 18 scored 5.7 rushing points or more in the week in which they paced the position.
The real standout statistic above, however, is the number of rushing touchdowns that quarterbacks are producing compared to only five years ago.
This is what elevated a player like Hurts, who did not even have a great rushing season but scored an abundance of rushing touchdowns.
Quarterbacks accounted for a record 24.3% of the league’s rushing touchdowns.
Over the past four seasons, quarterbacks have lived near triple-digit rushing touchdowns in total.
If you go back to 2010, that number was just 44.
If you have a quarterback who can run, defenses have to play 11-on-11 football as opposed to having a number advantage for pure pocket passers.
This has become a weapon for teams near the end zone.
QB Rushing Within Five Yards of End Zone:
YEAR | RUATT | League% | RuTD | League% |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 145 | 20.03% | 69 | 23.00% |
2022 | 153 | 21.16% | 71 | 23.83% |
2021 | 145 | 19.46% | 66 | 20.95% |
2020 | 154 | 18.85% | 85 | 24.29% |
2019 | 101 | 15.26% | 48 | 16.78% |
2018 | 103 | 16.22% | 45 | 16.73% |
2017 | 76 | 13.04% | 38 | 16.52% |
2016 | 78 | 11.42% | 37 | 12.50% |
2015 | 58 | 10.38% | 35 | 16.20% |
2014 | 57 | 9.84% | 26 | 11.40% |
2013 | 63 | 9.60% | 26 | 9.70% |
2012 | 95 | 15.55% | 45 | 18.29% |
2011 | 89 | 13.82% | 43 | 17.70% |
2010 | 66 | 10.06% | 27 | 11.39% |
Quarterbacks have accounted for over 20% of the rushing touchdowns from five yards or closer in each of the past four seasons.
If you compare this table to the previous one, you can see where quarterbacks spike in terms of the share of league-wide rushing attempts.
While quarterbacks had 16.2% of the overall runs in the league last season, that rate was 20.0% from five yards and closer.
Wrapping things up in three tidy bullet points:
- The past two seasons have been among the worst passing seasons in the modern era of the NFL.
- Having the top passer in passing point output has carried lower weight while passing points have been easier to replicate since they are so low.
- You should not prioritize quarterbacks who are reliant solely on passing production only for fantasy football.
- Rushing remains the true trump card at the position, and teams that have mobile quarterbacks continue to utilize them more than ever, especially near the end zone.
- If you have a player that throws and runs at the position, that archetype is the most valuable subset to add to rosters.