The first day of significant player movement had one late major trade with fantasy implications…
— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) March 17, 2020
The Bills sent a first, fifth, and sixth round picks in this draft plus a fourth round pick in 2021 to the Vikings in exchange for Stefon Diggs and a 2020 seventh-round pick.
Stefon Diggs Career Stats
Diggs has had quite a versatile career. Through five seasons in Minnesota, he’s performed in a number of unique ways. From high-volume induced possession player to explosive lid popper, Diggs has averaged over 14.0 PPR points per game in each of the past four seasons while playing with four different primary starting quarterbacks.
This past season, Diggs averaged a career-low 6.3 targets per game, but when he did receive targets, they were high-quality downfield targets that weren’t wasted. On a career-high 15.6-yard average depth of target, Diggs posted career highs in yards per catch and receiving yards per game. With 1,130 yards on just 94 targets, Diggs became just the fourth player since targets were tracked in 1992 to have at least 1,100 yards on fewer than 100 targets. Overcoming playing on a team that ranked 31st in passing plays per game (30.9), Diggs trailed only Michael Thomas in receiving yards per team passing attempt (2.42) among wide receivers in 2019.
From one low-volume passing game to another, Diggs joins a Buffalo team that has ranked 23rd in passing plays per game (34.6) in 2019 and 29th (33.7) in 2018. He joins John Brown and Cole Beasley, who both were signed last offseason and dominated the passing game opportunities for the Bills a year ago.
John Brown and Cole Beasley Combined Share of the 2019 Buffalo Passing Game
As mentioned in the open, Diggs has been a strong fantasy asset while playing with Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, and Kirk Cousins over his career. Transitioning from Cousins the past two years to Josh Allen may be his biggest task thus far when comparing the two passers in 2019 using the completion percentage per depth of target took at Sharp Football Stats.
Allen took a major step forward as a passer in year two across the board, but still was a below-average passer in terms of connecting downfield. With the added context that Buffalo faced the fifth-easiest schedule of passing efficiency allowed, Allen will need to continue to make improvements. The one thing I will say is that the Bills appear to be aware of Allen’s strengths and shortcomings and are building around that by adding wideouts who are strong at gaining separation over clunky clashers that need targets in tight windows.
That said, Allen was the QB11 in points per game in 2019 (18.0) and Diggs is an improvement and another weapon added to his arsenal. Allen remains a viable lower-end QB1 option that comes with a high rushing floor.
On the Minnesota side of the equation, Diggs leaves behind 20.2% of the team targets unaccounted for. The easiest dot to connect is the target elevation this means for Adam Thielen. A hamstring injury zapped Thielen’s 2019 season, costing him six full games while playing just 16 total snaps in two other games. Thielen will be 30-years-old when the 2020 season starts with 69-866-9 over his past 18 games played. The Vikings depth behind Thielen is borderline non-existent with Chad Beebe (6), Olabisi Johnson (31), Alexander Hollins (2), Davion Davis (zero), Bralon Addison (zero), and Dillon Mitchell (zero) all under contract and combining for 39 career catches. The Vikings should be expected to add more than wideout this offseason while Thielen is elevated to WR2 status for the upcoming season.