Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into how running backs have scored fantasy points in recent seasons.
The goal for these articles is straightforward.
We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
| 2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2026 League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends (Coming soon) |
| Tight End Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon) |
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League Running Back Usage Since 2010
| Year | Touch/Gm | RuAtt/Gm | RuTD/Gm | Tgt/Gm | Rec/Gm | ReTD/Gm | FP/Gm | PPR/Gm | LG. TCH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 52.2 | 43.7 | 1.4 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 35.9 | 44.5 | 55.0% |
| 2024 | 54.3 | 45.4 | 1.5 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 0.3 | 35.6 | 44.2 | 53.6% |
| 2023 | 52.4 | 43.2 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 33.7 | 43.0 | 54.0% |
| 2022 | 53.2 | 43.7 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 0.4 | 35.7 | 45.2 | 54.6% |
| 2021 | 53.6 | 43.5 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 36.5 | 46.6 | 54.8% |
| 2020 | 53.3 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 37.6 | 47.5 | 53.4% |
| 2019 | 54.3 | 43.8 | 1.4 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 0.4 | 37.1 | 47.7 | 56.3% |
| 2018 | 53.6 | 42.8 | 1.4 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 0.5 | 37.9 | 48.7 | 55.4% |
| 2017 | 56.7 | 45.9 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 36.4 | 47.2 | 58.9% |
| 2016 | 54.6 | 44.8 | 1.4 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 36.8 | 46.7 | 56.3% |
| 2015 | 55.8 | 45.2 | 1.1 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.6 | 57.1% |
| 2014 | 55.6 | 45.8 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.0 | 57.2% |
| 2013 | 56.7 | 46.6 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 0.3 | 36.4 | 46.5 | 58.1% |
| 2012 | 56.1 | 47.1 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 0.2 | 35.6 | 44.6 | 58.0% |
| 2011 | 56.5 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 45.9 | 59.2% |
| 2010 | 57.1 | 47.5 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 46.1 | 59.9% |
In the opening post covering league-wide trends, we discussed how much overlap there was between the 2024 and 2025 seasons in terms of how offenses operated and the production they produced.
That shows up here as running back production for fantasy purposes was largely identical the past two years.
Running backs across the league lost two touches per game last year, but since those directly tied to rushing attempts per game, the position itself did not lose any ground.
We are talking about minor percentage points here, but the position still accounted for 55% of the league's offensive touches, the highest rate since 2019.
RB Receiving Usage Rates Compared to League-Wide Usage
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | RB FF REPT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.9% | 20.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 15.9% |
| 2024 | 17.4% | 20.1% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 15.9% |
| 2023 | 18.6% | 21.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| 2022 | 19.2% | 22.1% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 17.4% |
| 2021 | 19.5% | 22.5% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 17.9% |
| 2020 | 19.2% | 21.6% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| 2019 | 20.6% | 23.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 18.8% |
| 2018 | 21.1% | 24.0% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 19.2% |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 25.4% | 18.3% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| 2016 | 18.9% | 22.0% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 17.5% |
| 2015 | 20.1% | 23.4% | 16.9% | 13.2% | 18.8% |
| 2014 | 19.6% | 22.5% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% |
| 2013 | 19.7% | 23.3% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 17.7% |
| 2012 | 18.1% | 21.3% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 16.1% |
| 2011 | 19.4% | 22.9% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 17.3% |
| 2010 | 19.7% | 23.5% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 17.9% |
Receptions per game at the position have now declined in each of the past four seasons, but the position itself at least stopped some of the bleeding we had seen in recent years when it came to league-wide use in the passing game.
There is only so low we were going to go in terms of the share of opportunities that backs had in the passing game, and hopefully, last season showed the relative floor.
League-wide shares across targets, catches, yards, and receiving points were on par with 2024.
While we may have found the bottom, overall backfield use in the passing game remains at its lowest point across the above sample seasons.
In fantasy football, a target for a running back has had 2.7 times the value of a rushing attempt in PPR formats over that sample, and 1.4 times the value of a rush in standard scoring settings.
Running backs have collectively had fewer than 3,000 targets in each of the past two seasons, the only years falling below that arbitrary threshold since 2008.
After producing at least 2,500 receptions as a whole every season from 2017 through 2023, backfields recorded 2,349 receptions in 2025 and 2,328 in 2024.
While backs were a touch more involved in the passing game last year, based on league-wide percentages, the continued decline in overall passing volume for the league (which we highlighted with quarterbacks) meant we had another overall loss in counting stats.
Running backs caught 21 fewer passes and gained 488 fewer yards through the air last season than in 2024.
They made up for that by catching 105 touchdowns, 20 more than they had the previous season.
Christian McCaffrey (102 receptions), Bijan Robinson (79), Jahmyr Gibbs (77), and Kenneth Gainwell (73) all caught 70 or more passes after only one running back hit that mark in 2024, but we only had seven backs catch 50 passes last year.
That was down from nine backs hitting that threshold in 2024, 14 in 2023, and 11 in 2022.
There have been only 16 individual seasons (roughly three per year) since the NFL went to 17 games four years ago in which a running back accounted for 15% or more of his team’s targets.
Just two have had a year with at least 20%, and both were by McCaffrey.
Over the previous four seasons from 2017 to 2020, there were 26 seasons in which a running back accounted for 15% or more of his team’s targets, with seven of those years at 20% or more.
What this has done is make receiving backs scarcer.
We now have sort of a “Konami Code” for running backs.
If you are involved in the passing game, your scoring potential is higher, since it is harder to find those backs.
This is why running backs who are involved as pass catchers occupy the front end of ADP and position rankings.
That scarcity of running backs who do it all has also helped out more rushing-dependent backs compete for the front end of the position, something that was harder for that archetype to do a decade ago.
Since the NFL expanded to 17 games, we have had two backs (Saquon Barkley in 2021 and Derrick Henry in 2024) lead the position in PPR points per game despite over 78% of their fantasy points coming from rushing production.
Over the previous 15 seasons, only once (Adrian Peterson in 2012) did a running back lead the position in PPR points per game with 75% of their points coming from rushing.
The average among that group was 58.8% of their output coming via rushing.
Last season, five of the RB1 scorers in PPR points per game had over 70% of their fantasy points come via rushing, with Jonathan Taylor (73.6%), James Cook (77.5%), Derrick Henry (91.4%), Kyren Williams (70.3%), and Javonte Williams (76.7%) all in that bucket.
RB13 Saquon Barkley (72.1%) and RB15 D’Andre Swift (71.2%) were right behind them.
League-Wide Target Distribution At or Behind the Line of Scrimmage
| YEAR | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48.8% | 30.9% | 19.8% |
| 2024 | 46.6% | 35.6% | 17.7% |
| 2023 | 48.4% | 34.9% | 16.2% |
| 2022 | 47.0% | 35.6% | 17.1% |
| 2021 | 47.3% | 36.4% | 16.0% |
| 2020 | 48.3% | 37.1% | 14.3% |
| 2019 | 53.6% | 31.3% | 14.4% |
| 2018 | 52.2% | 33.9% | 13.3% |
| 2017 | 53.4% | 32.2% | 14.1% |
| 2016 | 49.0% | 36.8% | 14.0% |
| 2015 | 51.3% | 34.0% | 14.4% |
| 2014 | 51.4% | 34.7% | 13.5% |
| 2013 | 54.6% | 31.9% | 13.1% |
| 2012 | 54.1% | 31.3% | 14.3% |
| 2011 | 57.0% | 28.3% | 14.2% |
| 2010 | 53.6% | 30.0% | 16.3% |
While we will take any target opportunities we can get from our running backs since they are inherently worth more fantasy points than a handoff, even in standard formats, not all running back targets are created equal.
The league has given wide receivers and tight ends more opportunities at the line of scrimmage in recent seasons.
Running backs have been below 50% of league-wide targets at or behind the line of scrimmage in six straight years, yet they still account for the largest share of those receiving opportunities.
So many targets the position receives are checkdowns rather than the intended result of the play call.
2025 Running Back Receiving Usage
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | Running Back | Rec Points | Targets | Team Target% | AY/Target | Target LOS% | Wide Snap% | Slot Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 236.4 | 129 | 23.5 | 2.6 | 25.6 | 2.0 | 9.2 | ||||
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | 183.0 | 103 | 19.8 | 1.0 | 49.5 | 7.7 | 12.9 | ||||
| 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 168.6 | 94 | 17.1 | 0.6 | 43.6 | 3.6 | 6.2 | ||||
| 4 | Chase Brown | 142.7 | 88 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 38.6 | 2.7 | 7.3 | ||||
| 5 | Kenneth Gainwell | 137.6 | 85 | 16.3 | -0.2 | 41.2 | 5.9 | 11.2 | ||||
| 6 | De'Von Achane | 139.8 | 85 | 18.4 | 0.4 | 56.5 | 7.1 | 18.4 | ||||
| 7 | Ashton Jeanty | 119.6 | 73 | 14.8 | -1.4 | 61.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | ||||
| 8 | RJ Harvey | 112.6 | 58 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 41.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | ||||
| 9 | Jonathan Taylor | 95.8 | 55 | 10.4 | -0.8 | 54.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | ||||
| 10 | Travis Etienne | 101.2 | 52 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 59.6 | 2.3 | 6.4 | ||||
| 11 | Javonte Williams | 58.7 | 51 | 8.4 | -1.3 | 56.9 | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||
| 12 | Saquon Barkley | 74.3 | 50 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 46.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | ||||
| 13 | Rico Dowdle | 74.7 | 50 | 10.4 | -1.0 | 60.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | ||||
| 14 | Kyren Williams | 82.1 | 50 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 14.0 | 0.4 | 4.1 | ||||
| 15 | Tyjae Spears | 71.4 | 50 | 9.4 | -2.3 | 64.0 | 3.1 | 8.5 | ||||
| 16 | D'Andre Swift | 69.9 | 48 | 9.0 | -0.5 | 58.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | ||||
| 17 | Breece Hall | 77.0 | 48 | 10.2 | 0.3 | 41.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | ||||
| 18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 74.8 | 48 | 9.5 | 0.4 | 54.2 | 5.2 | 4.0 | ||||
| 19 | Michael Carter | 59.7 | 45 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 24.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | ||||
| 20 | Jaylen Warren | 85.3 | 45 | 8.6 | -2.5 | 71.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| 21 | Rachaad White | 61.8 | 45 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 75.6 | 4.8 | 6.9 | ||||
| 22 | Josh Jacobs | 70.2 | 44 | 9.6 | -0.9 | 50.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | ||||
| 23 | TreVeyon Henderson | 63.1 | 42 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | ||||
| 24 | Aaron Jones | 51.9 | 41 | 8.8 | -0.6 | 58.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | ||||
| 25 | Tony Pollard | 51.6 | 41 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 31.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
We want our backs to get work in the designed passing game while drawing targets that come with added weight for fantasy production.
Per Fantasy Points data, only six running backs last year had a first-read target share of 10% or higher.
Those backs were Bijan Robinson (17.5%), Jahmyr Gibbs (15.6%), Christian McCaffrey (15.5%), De’Von Achane (15.2%), Kenneth Gainwell (12.9%), and Aaron Jones (11.2%).
Diverse usage was a massive development for Bijan Robinson last year.
Robinson was second at the position in team target share, while the Falcons used him more as a receiver than as a checkdown target in previous seasons.
After 487 and 431 receiving yards to open his career, Robinson accumulated 820 yards through the air last season.
After 24 air yards in 2023 and -21 in 2024, Robinson finished with 101 air yards last season.
He played 7.7% of his snaps out wide and 12.9% from the slot.
What makes Christian McCaffrey so good is not solely that he catches the most passes at the position, but the types of opportunities he gets paired with that usage.
McCaffrey only had 25.6% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage last year.
The average among the other 14 backs with 50-plus targets last season was 49.1% of their targets at or behind the line.
The only other running back with 50-plus targets and a rate below 38% was Kyren Williams, who was only at 14% of his targets at or behind the line.
The Rams have increasingly thrown to their running backs at a lower rate in recent years, but the targets Williams received had surplus value to offset a loss of opportunity.
This is the out for De’Von Achane in fantasy if the Miami offense is as lackluster as projected and does not produce enough scoring opportunities.
There are concerns about Mike McDaniel leaving and Malik Willis coming in under center regarding what type of creativity and volume we see for Achane in 2026, but he has been a back who has added surplus value as a pass catcher.
He has received a high rate of his targets at the line of scrimmage but has still had positive air yards over his career since he has played 8.7% of his career snaps out wide and 19.7% from the slot.
He has not caught a ton of passes over his career due to his limitations as a pass protector, but the underlying usage for Kenneth Walker does give him access to a higher ceiling if he finally plays on passing snaps regularly with the Chiefs.
Walker has had a negative air-yard rate over his career, but he has target rates at the line of scrimmage of 50.9% and 50% over the past two seasons, while playing 6.8% of his career snaps out wide and 5.7% in the slot.
Conversely, a few backs with higher 2025 target totals but who depended on those targets behind the line of scrimmage or lacked diverse usage could be a bit of a trapdoor projecting forward in 2026.
Of the backs with 50-plus targets who stand out, Ashton Jeanty, Kenneth Gainwell, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, and Tyjae Spears all averaged negative air yards per target.
I would make the case that Gainwell has the most stability here, even if he does lose some overall targets by playing with a better wide receiver room.
Gainwell had a high rate of targets at the line playing with Aaron Rodgers, but he still had diverse deployment out wide (5.9%) and in the slot (11.2%).
Baker Mayfield has been a touch above the base rate at throwing to running backs with an 18.5% rate with Tampa Bay (14th in the league), while the new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, has done so at 19.3%.
Apply a grain of salt needed for his attachment to Bijan Robinson.
The most interesting player here is Ashton Jeanty.
I brought this up in the running back tiers with Jeanty.
Yes, the Raiders still have a thin pass-catching room, which can propel Jeanty’s target share through necessity.
But there is some potential fragility in his receiving role if it does not change under Klint Kubiak, or if a receiver other than Brock Bowers elevates their game in 2026.
Jeanty saw 61.1% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage and did not have a unique role lining up outside (2.4%) or in the slot (1.8%).
Jeanty’s receiving output in college was volatile, so we just have to let this breathe a bit in the NFL.
The positive news here is that we did see Kubiak put Kenneth Walker out wide and in the slot at a solid rate on his snaps last season.
The other guys we mentioned are largely known for the risk of relying on receiving output this year.
As of now, Travis Etienne still has to contend with Alvin Kamara on the New Orleans roster.
Kellen Moore also does not have a strong track record of involving his backs in the passing game.
Moore’s teams have thrown the ball to running backs 16.3% of the time, below the league's base rate.
His highest target rate to running backs was 18.5% with Dallas in 2021.
Javonte Williams is arguably the most fragile back here as a pass catcher.
We have already heard reports this summer that Jaydon Blue has his head in a better space this offseason, and the team wants to push him into a pass-catching role, which his collegiate background supports.
Williams only averaged 3.9 yards per reception on his 35 catches.
That is the second-lowest yards-per-catch mark in league history for any running back with 25-plus receptions in a season.
That is not a complete one-off, either.
Williams has now averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per catch in three of his past four seasons.
56.9% of his targets were at the line of scrimmage.
In his final season at Texas, Blue caught 42 passes for 368 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Blue was targeted on 25.1% of his routes in the passing game, the second-highest rate in his class.
He lined up in the slot on a class-high 16.2% of his routes.
