- Last season, tight ends had their most targets per game since 2020.
- Tight ends accounted for 23.8% of the league’s receptions, the highest rate in a season.
- NFL Teams used 12 personnel (one RB and two TEs) on 22.1% of the offensive snaps, the highest rate in the 2000s.
- With more tight ends running routes, TE1 scorers accounted for 32.1% of the targets among the position. That was not only the fourth-lowest rate of the 15 year sample, but four of the bottom five seasons in that department have come since 2020.
As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2025 fantasy season, we are taking a top down look at production for each fantasy position.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming Soon) |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming Soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
Now, let’s take a look at the tight ends.
League TE Usage Since 2010
| Year | Tgt/G | Lg. TGT% | Rec/G | LG% | Yd/G | LG% | TD/G | LG% | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14.0 | 22.4% | 10.2 | 23.8% | 102.1 | 21.9% | 0.7 | 22.0% | 24.3 |
| 2023 | 13.7 | 21.3% | 9.8 | 22.5% | 99.6 | 21.1% | 0.6 | 22.8% | 23.5 |
| 2022 | 13.4 | 21.1% | 9.3 | 21.7% | 97.5 | 20.8% | 0.7 | 26.4% | 23.4 |
| 2021 | 13.9 | 20.9% | 9.5 | 21.4% | 101.0 | 20.7% | 0.7 | 24.1% | 24.3 |
| 2020 | 14.2 | 21.1% | 9.6 | 21.0% | 103.5 | 20.3% | 0.9 | 26.8% | 25.5 |
| 2019 | 13.9 | 20.8% | 9.5 | 21.4% | 103.2 | 20.5% | 0.8 | 24.8% | 24.5 |
| 2018 | 13.4 | 19.9% | 9.1 | 20.3% | 103.5 | 20.4% | 0.7 | 22.6% | 24.0 |
| 2017 | 13.8 | 20.7% | 8.9 | 21.0% | 98.1 | 20.5% | 0.8 | 26.6% | 23.3 |
| 2016 | 14.4 | 20.5% | 9.5 | 21.2% | 105.1 | 20.6% | 0.7 | 23.5% | 24.4 |
| 2015 | 15.1 | 21.4% | 9.8 | 21.8% | 107.6 | 20.8% | 0.8 | 25.1% | 25.6 |
| 2014 | 13.9 | 20.2% | 9.1 | 20.7% | 100.2 | 19.9% | 0.8 | 26.8% | 24.1 |
| 2013 | 14.5 | 20.8% | 9.3 | 21.5% | 106.9 | 21.2% | 0.9 | 29.5% | 25.5 |
| 2012 | 15.0 | 21.9% | 9.6 | 22.7% | 104.6 | 21.3% | 0.8 | 26.7% | 24.8 |
| 2011 | 14.6 | 21.9% | 9.2 | 22.6% | 106.9 | 21.9% | 0.8 | 27.0% | 24.6 |
| 2010 | 14.3 | 21.6% | 9.0 | 22.0% | 99.8 | 21.1% | 0.8 | 25.8% | 23.5 |
The tight end position has been on the rise in usage, something that reached new heights in 2024.
Last season, tight ends had their most targets per game since 2020.
As we have noted throughout this series, that came attached to the suppression of passing volume.
Factoring in that we had the fewest pass attempts per game since 2008 further illuminates how much tight ends were used last season.
Tight ends accounted for 22.4% of the league’s targets, their highest rate in a season in the 2000s.
As a byproduct, they set a new collective record for receptions in a season and per game.
It was the first time that the position had averaged double-digit receptions per contest in a season.
They accounted for 23.8% of the league’s receptions, the highest rate in a season.
As an extension of the first two points, the position’s yardage per game was the highest since the 2020 season, while their share of the league’s receiving yards was the highest since 2011.
While the position’s usage has been on the rise and reached new heights last season, the one area where things have still lagged a bit is in the touchdown department.
Tight ends did catch 6 more touchdowns than they did as a group in 2023, but their share of the league’s receiving touchdowns was at the lowest point over the past 15 seasons.
Putting everything together that we have covered through this series shows that the usage of the position is not a coincidence.
On Monday, we highlighted that offenses were increasing their use of heavy sets to combat base nickel defenses, with multiple tight ends at the forefront of this trend.
Teams used 12 personnel (one RB and two TEs) on 22.1% of the offensive snaps, the highest rate in the 2000s.
There were 10,222 plays last season with at least two tight ends on the field, the first time that has cleared 10,000 since 2015.
There were 4,576 dropbacks last year with multiple tight ends on the field, the most since that 2015 season.
That means 22.7% of the dropbacks used multiple tight ends, up from a 20.4% rate in 2023 and a 19.9% rate in 2022.
As a result (paired with a 17 game schedule), tight ends as a whole ran 17,934 pass routes.
That is the most in any season ever.
It was 357 more than they ran in 2023 and 712 more than in 2022.
On Wednesday, we highlighted that tight ends have taken on an increased role in absorbing targets at the line of scrimmage, which has directly reduced running back receptions.
Putting all of this together with the increased rates of zone coverage and the high rates of the middle of the field being left open to prevent big plays on the outside, it is a clear picture of how the tight end position has become a larger focal point of today’s passing games.
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Fantasy TE1 Positional Output Share Since 2010
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | PPR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32.1% | 33.0% | 35.1% | 40.0% | 35.5% |
| 2023 | 34.6% | 35.6% | 36.8% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| 2022 | 30.3% | 30.4% | 32.2% | 32.3% | 32.7% |
| 2021 | 32.0% | 32.1% | 36.7% | 32.0% | 35.6% |
| 2020 | 32.2% | 32.5% | 34.3% | 34.3% | 33.5% |
| 2019 | 33.1% | 34.6% | 37.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| 2018 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 37.6% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
| 2017 | 33.2% | 34.5% | 34.1% | 36.6% | 34.7% |
| 2016 | 33.5% | 34.5% | 35.6% | 34.6% | 34.8% |
| 2015 | 33.4% | 34.7% | 37.7% | 40.8% | 37.0% |
| 2014 | 34.4% | 35.6% | 38.4% | 41.2% | 37.8% |
| 2013 | 33.8% | 34.9% | 36.3% | 40.5% | 36.8% |
| 2012 | 33.2% | 34.8% | 35.3% | 39.6% | 36.0% |
| 2011 | 36.1% | 38.0% | 39.7% | 42.3% | 39.8% |
| 2010 | 31.7% | 33.7% | 35.1% | 39.2% | 35.4% |
With more tight ends playing on the field at once, it has had an impact on some areas of the position.
With more tight ends running routes, TE1 scorers accounted for 32.1% of the targets among the position.
That was not only the fourth-lowest rate of the 15 year sample, but four of the bottom five seasons in that department have come since 2020.
As a result, TE1 scorers accounted for just under 33% of the receptions at the position.
The same thing followed suit in that department, with four of the five lowest seasons coming since 2020.
The share of yardage produced by TE1 scorers followed those same trends.
The one area where front-end tight ends did make up separation was reaching the end zone.
That group produced 40% of the receiving touchdowns at the position, their highest rate since 2015.
Fantasy points are driven by touchdown output, so it's not a super surprise that the top scorers were the touchdown producers, but that does highlight that if the position itself is more congested than ever in terms of multiple tight ends on the field at once, then we should be aiming for that touchdown upside as a separator.
Especially with our current layout this offseason, with three tight ends in an ADP tier of their own and the rest of the position in a flatter tier.
Only 25% of the traditional 12-team league is going to land one Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or George Kittle. The other 75% is going shopping elsewhere.
The Impact of the Running Game
We have established that teams are running the ball more out of heavier sets to counter lighter defensive looks and sustain offensive leverage, pushing more tight ends onto the field.
That has also begun to reveal more compartmentalized roles within the position.
Last season, we only had four tight ends on the field for 80% of their team’s dropbacks and zero at 90% or higher (although McBride was there in his games played).
In comparison, wide receivers had 31 players on the field for 80% or more of their team’s dropbacks and 12 at 90% or higher.
The last time that a tight end was on the field for 90% of his team’s dropbacks was Travis Kelce in 2018.
That is part of why it is so challenging for tight ends to keep up with wide receivers, and we rarely have someone reach WR1 production levels.
They aren’t on the field as much as leading wideouts on passing plays.
With the rise of heavier personnel, we have seen the “big slot” archetype within the position get pushed out of some of these heavier looks where teams want to run the football and, in turn, incorporate play action.
This is what thwarted Dalton Kincaid’s breakout potential last year and ultimately hindered Kyle Pitts‘ midseason progress as examples.
The Bills ran the ball only 36% of the time Kincaid was on the field compared to a 45.1% rate with Dawson Knox on the field.
Atlanta ran the ball only 29.3% of the time when Pitts was in the game compared to a 70.1% rate with Charlie Woerner on the field.
We do not score fantasy points for run blocking and want our tight ends running pass routes, but this is how those players who are not active in the run game (in an offensive meta where teams want to run defenses out of light personnel) lose out on snaps, which leads to fewer routes run and fewer target opportunities.
This is how something such as targets per route run can be misleading for tight ends compared to wide receivers, since the latter are running more routes on average.
Kincaid was targeted on 27.2% of his routes, which only trailed McBride.
But McBride was on the field for 91.1% of his team’s dropbacks in his games played while Kincaid was on the field for only 62.9% of Buffalo’s dropbacks in his games played.
As a result, McBride was running 33.4 routes per game compared to 21.2 per game for Kincaid.
There are a few other examples here that I believe could impact 2025 in the same regard that we saw with Pitts and Kincaid last year (both of which have the same personnel to contend with in 2025).
T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver in Minnesota, Brenton Strange and Hunter Long in Jacksonville, Evan Engram and Adam Trautman in Denver, Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample in Cincinnati, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble in Carolina, and Darren Waller and Julian Hill in Miami.
The Pittsburgh tight ends are more challenging to diagnose with the addition of Jonnu Smith, especially since Darnell Washington is a strong asset in the run game.
If Minnesota is successful running the ball efficiently, they have run the ball on only 29.7% and 22% of Hockenson’s snaps the past two seasons.
For his career, the highest rate a team has run the ball when Engram has been on the field is 34.1% of his snaps.
If Denver’s run game is improved, I would still expect Trautman (who blocked 66% of his snaps) to find his way to playing time.
Strange and Sanders are young enough that we can see their roles expand.
Tremble is recovering from offseason back surgery as well, giving Sanders some runway to show he has improved in the run game in his second season.
Long only has 12 receptions over four NFL seasons but was fifth in run blocking grade among tight ends last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Strange was 44th on that list.
We could end up with others that develop in season (Chicago is another wild card).
On the surface, all of those are receiving first tight ends whose teams have had low run rates with them on the field and are attached to a tight end who has been an asset in heavier sets.
Diverse Passing Game Usage
When our tight ends are running routes, we do want them to come with diversity.
Tight End Usage Per Alignment
| Alignment | Air/Tgt | Tgt/Rt | Yds/Rec | 1D/TD% | Pts/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inline | 5.7 | 21.5% | 10.5 | 39.1% | 1.61 |
| Slot | 8.3 | 22.9% | 11.1 | 39.4% | 1.75 |
| Wide | 8.5 | 21.2% | 11.1 | 37.4% | 1.65 |
*TruMedia 2019-2024 seasons
We only have individual alignment metrics from the past five seasons, but you can easily see how the value of targets spikes when tight ends are in the slot.
What is interesting is that not only do targets from the slot have a higher conversion of first downs and touchdowns per target among the alignments, but the position averages the same amount of yardage per catch as lined up out wide.
Since we know that all tight ends are not the same and are tasked with different assignments in various offenses, I analyzed the top 36 players in the current ADP (excluding rookies) at Underdog, examining their playing time, usage, alignments, and their team’s run rate while they were on the field.
2025 ADP & TE Usage Rates
| Player | POS ADP | Rt/DB% | Tgt/Rt% | Yds/Rt | InLine% | Slot% | Wide% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 84.5% | 25.9% | 2.02 | 38.5% | 43.7% | 16.2% |
| Trey McBride | 2 | 91.1% | 27.5% | 2.15 | 50.7% | 41.8% | 6.7% |
| George Kittle | 3 | 77.4% | 22.5% | 2.65 | 68.5% | 22.4% | 6.1% |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 80.8% | 18.4% | 1.61 | 63.2% | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 74.8% | 20.7% | 1.52 | 62.3% | 26.1% | 11.4% |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 86.9% | 23.4% | 1.45 | 43.2% | 34.0% | 19.6% |
| Mark Andrews | 7 | 65.8% | 19.4% | 1.89 | 19.0% | 51.5% | 26.1% |
| Evan Engram | 8 | 81.7% | 26.6% | 1.51 | 48.0% | 34.4% | 15.9% |
| David Njoku | 10 | 74.2% | 25.7% | 1.34 | 66.3% | 24.1% | 9.3% |
| Tucker Kraft | 11 | 83.5% | 16.1% | 1.63 | 66.7% | 19.6% | 10.4% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 13 | 62.9% | 27.2% | 1.62 | 39.4% | 45.0% | 14.9% |
| Dallas Goedert | 14 | 74.0% | 23.1% | 2.20 | 60.4% | 25.8% | 8.2% |
| Isaiah Likely | 15 | 60.6% | 19.0% | 1.56 | 42.3% | 42.6% | 12.8% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16 | 68.4% | 22.2% | 1.28 | 46.0% | 45.6% | 7.0% |
| Kyle Pitts | 17 | 78.4% | 16.4% | 1.34 | 51.3% | 32.5% | 16.2% |
| Brenton Strange | 18 | 45.4% | 19.3% | 1.50 | 56.8% | 29.7% | 8.3% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19 | 68.9% | 24.6% | 1.96 | 31.4% | 40.5% | 24.1% |
| Hunter Henry | 20 | 79.9% | 20.2% | 1.40 | 53.9% | 39.1% | 4.1% |
| Mike Gesicki | 21 | 58.0% | 19.9% | 1.59 | 12.4% | 64.5% | 22.7% |
| Zach Ertz | 22 | 77.4% | 18.1% | 1.30 | 40.9% | 47.5% | 10.0% |
| Cade Otton | 23 | 87.3% | 18.9% | 1.30 | 61.2% | 25.4% | 11.9% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 25 | 62.1% | 18.4% | 1.26 | 44.8% | 32.4% | 15.5% |
| Darren Waller | 26 | 72.6% | 20.8% | 1.55 | 39.5% | 39.3% | 19.5% |
| Dalton Schultz | 27 | 77.5% | 16.6% | 1.04 | 65.3% | 19.7% | 8.8% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 28 | 54.4% | 13.8% | 1.10 | 52.7% | 35.5% | 10.3% |
| Juwan Johnson | 29 | 66.4% | 16.2% | 1.34 | 56.1% | 30.7% | 12.7% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 30 | 76.3% | 17.5% | 1.47 | 37.8% | 41.7% | 19.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 31 | 76.6% | 11.8% | 0.91 | 55.1% | 35.2% | 6.5% |
| Noah Gray | 33 | 46.2% | 15.7% | 1.40 | 66.7% | 18.8% | 7.6% |
| Tyler Conklin | 34 | 79.2% | 14.5% | 0.90 | 51.7% | 39.5% | 7.6% |
| Ben Sinnott | 36 | 16.3% | 4.7% | 0.26 | 65.9% | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Cole Kmet | 37 | 76.3% | 10.6% | 0.91 | 50.1% | 39.3% | 7.8% |
| Tyler Higbee | 39 | 78.8% | 15.0% | 1.05 | 68.5% | 22.0% | 11.9% |
*2023 data for Darren Waller
All route per dropback data accounts for playing time, excluding missed time due to injuries.
Mark Andrews is undoubtedly going to experience touchdown regression this season.
Still, if he recovers any of the playing time he lost last year, his deployment will boost his efficiency.
Andrews was recovering from tightrope surgery and had been involved in an offseason car accident.
It isn't easy to quantify whether these factors impacted his playing time versus the team's decision to incorporate Isaiah Likely more, especially since Andrews remained efficient.
Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta bear a striking resemblance to each other across the board, while one player is significantly cheaper.
If you are looking at things from a value perspective, Hunter Henry looks appealing as a late-round pick.
We have moving parts with the addition of Stefon Diggs as major target competition, but Henry has that priced in at his TE20 ADP.
Henry was eighth in routes per dropback, 13th in target rate per route, and 14th in rate of snaps from the slot.
Jonnu Smith, Dalton Kincaid, and Jake Ferguson are all standouts in target rate per route, but all are associated with depressed route participation.
Kincaid has the most stable layout coming into 2025. Smith is on a new team, and Ferguson has to contend with the addition of George Pickens.