- Wide receivers had their fewest targets per game since 2008.
- 2024 featured the lowest rate of 3WR sets on dropbacks since the 2019 season.
- Seven different wide receivers who ran 100-plus routes were targeted on 28% or more of their routes, the most in a season since 2021.
- The past seven WR1 overall scorers have all been in the slot for over 20% of their snaps, with five of those players clearing 30%.
As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2025 fantasy season, we are taking a top down look at production for each fantasy position.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends (Coming Soon) |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming Soon) |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming Soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
Now, let’s take a look at the wide receivers.
League WR Usage Since 2010
| YEAR | TGT/G | League % | Rec/G | Lg% | ReYD/G | Lg% | ReTD/G | Lg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.6 | 60.1% | 23.9 | 55.9% | 299.5 | 64.1% | 1.9 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 38.4 | 59.7% | 24.2 | 55.7% | 305.3 | 64.6% | 1.8 | 64.3% |
| 2022 | 37.9 | 59.4% | 24.0 | 56.1% | 302.1 | 64.4% | 1.7 | 60.4% |
| 2021 | 39.5 | 59.6% | 24.9 | 55.9% | 311.0 | 63.7% | 1.9 | 62.0% |
| 2020 | 40.6 | 59.7% | 26.5 | 57.8% | 334.0 | 65.5% | 2.1 | 61.4% |
| 2019 | 39.1 | 58.3% | 24.1 | 54.4% | 315.5 | 62.7% | 1.9 | 60.3% |
| 2018 | 39.5 | 58.8% | 24.9 | 55.5% | 318.9 | 62.7% | 2.1 | 62.8% |
| 2017 | 38.7 | 57.5% | 22.7 | 53.6% | 293.2 | 61.2% | 1.7 | 58.7% |
| 2016 | 42.6 | 60.5% | 25.5 | 56.7% | 326.3 | 63.8% | 2.0 | 63.7% |
| 2015 | 41.3 | 58.6% | 24.6 | 54.7% | 322.5 | 62.2% | 2.0 | 61.6% |
| 2014 | 41.3 | 59.9% | 24.8 | 56.6% | 323.6 | 64.3% | 1.9 | 60.1% |
| 2013 | 41.4 | 59.3% | 23.9 | 55.1% | 318.8 | 63.2% | 1.9 | 60.1% |
| 2012 | 41.0 | 59.9% | 23.6 | 55.8% | 315.7 | 64.2% | 1.9 | 64.9% |
| 2011 | 39.3 | 58.7% | 22.2 | 54.4% | 307.1 | 62.7% | 1.8 | 63.5% |
| 2010 | 39.0 | 58.7% | 22.3 | 54.3% | 295.8 | 62.6% | 1.9 | 63.9% |
As we have covered up to this point in the series, passing volume was down in the NFL as a whole.
Teams used heavier formations and emphasized the running game to counter the rise in lighter defensive looks.
With that, it is not a surprise to see the counting stats here for wide receivers dip in terms of overall targets, catches, and yards.
Wide receivers had their fewest targets per game since 2008.
Completion rate was at an all-time high last season, so they did save some ground in receptions, but it was still their fewest receptions per game since 2017.
The yardage per game was the fewest the position has collected since 2010.
The good news is that touchdowns were back up, as the position caught their most touchdowns per game since the 2020 season.
Counting stats aside, due to the reduction in pass attempts, the usage of the position did spike.
Wide receivers accounted for over 60% of the leaguewide targets for the first time since 2016.
They also accounted for their highest share of touchdown production over the past 15 years.
Usage at the position remains strong, and teams are incorporating wide receivers heavily into their offense, even if we do appear to have leveled off in terms of the rate of offenses using three or more wideouts per dropback.
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Percentage of Wide Receivers on the Field Per Dropback
| Year | 2+ WR% | 3+WR% | 4+WR% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 96.2% | 73.0% | 0.9% |
| 2023 | 96.5% | 74.2% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | 95.6% | 73.8% | 1.1% |
| 2021 | 95.7% | 73.4% | 3.5% |
| 2020 | 95.4% | 73.5% | 3.8% |
| 2019 | 95.9% | 72.4% | 3.6% |
| 2018 | 96.3% | 75.3% | 2.5% |
| 2017 | 95.7% | 73.0% | 2.7% |
| 2016 | 96.5% | 75.3% | 4.8% |
| 2015 | 95.8% | 70.3% | 4.5% |
| 2014 | 96.2% | 69.6% | 3.4% |
| 2013 | 95.9% | 67.6% | 3.1% |
*TruMedia
In the first part of this series, we highlighted how plays with three or more wide receivers on the field had their lowest rates since 2019 as teams attempted to force teams out of nickel base looks.
Focusing on only the league’s dropbacks, that followed suit as plays designed to throw the football had their lowest rate of 3WR sets since that 2019 season.
3WR sets still account for over 70% of all passing plays, so we do not have to discard the pizza with the box here.
However, this reduction has influenced several slot-dependent wide receivers in establishing consistent target floors, particularly with the recent decline in top down passing volume.
A player like Jayden Reed has run only a total of 7 pass routes in one or two WR sets over the past two seasons.
Josh Downs has run only 16 of those routes through two seasons.
Khalil Shakir has run 29 in the past two years.
Adam Thielen ran only 6 of those routes last season, while the team added Tetairoa McMillan in the draft.
Christian Kirk has a new home in Houston this year, but he ran only 5 of those routes last season before his injury.
These slot-based wideouts were on the rise as the league shifted to a pass heavy approach, but now that offenses have countered with heavier personnel, that archetype has lost tangible opportunities.
This is part of why it has been hard to diagnose the San Francisco wide receivers at full strength since Ricky Pearsall ran only 39 routes in one or two WR sets as a rookie.
It is also part of the equation when attempting to project the Seattle wide receivers in Klint Kubiak’s offense, since Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been on the field for 58 career routes in one or two WR sets, and Cooper Kupp has run just 15 over the past two seasons.
This is also directly tied to the usage of featured wideouts on rosters.
When 3WR sets began to spike, the depth of WR2 and WR3 fantasy scorers began to cut into the output that the top scorers in the league.
We have now seen a shift back in favor of those alpha wide receivers, as teams are not only increasing the use of heavier personnel but also finding more ways to get their best receivers the football.
Seven different wide receivers who ran 100-plus routes were targeted on 28% or more of their routes, the most in a season since 2021.
21 of them were targeted at a 25% or higher rate, the most ever in a season since route data has been tracked.
Puka Nacua set a new record for that data, earning a target on 38.3% of his routes last season.
We had some insane target shares for players when they were on the field last season.
Nacua accounted for 41.1% of his team’s targets when he was on the field.
Rashee Rice had a reduced sample, but his rate was 40.3%.
Malik Nabers (37%), A.J. Brown (35.9%), Nico Collins (33.4%), CeeDee Lamb (32.3%), Drake London (31.5%), and Justin Jefferson (30.4%) were all at 30% or higher.
The NFL has done an increasingly better job of getting the football to its No. 1 wideouts.
I don’t believe this is an accident and is related to the defensive (and, in turn, offensive) changes we have covered to open this series.
With the overwhelming decrease in man coverage and the rise in leaving the middle of the field open, we are seeing a different type of usage across lead receivers than the fantasy days of yesteryear.
This was reflected in yesterday’s post, which highlighted the shift in targets at the line of scrimmage away from running backs and toward wide receivers and tight ends.
WR1 Overall Scorers Since 2010
| WR1 | Year | PPR/G | Air/Tgt | Slot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2024 | 23.7 | 8.7 | 32.2% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2023 | 23.7 | 9.5 | 53.3% |
| Justin Jefferson | 2022 | 21.7 | 10.2 | 23.5% |
| Cooper Kupp | 2021 | 25.9 | 8.6 | 63.2% |
| Davante Adams | 2020 | 25.6 | 8.9 | 26.3% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 23.4 | 8.1 | 35.8% |
| Tyreek Hill | 2018 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 38.7% |
| Antonio Brown | 2017 | 22.2 | 14.4 | 9.4% |
| Antonio Brown | 2016 | 20.5 | 11.1 | 9.2% |
| Antonio Brown | 2015 | 24.3 | 11.3 | 12.3% |
| Antonio Brown | 2014 | 24.2 | 10.4 | 12.3% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 19.9 | 10.4 | 8.9% |
| Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 21.4 | 13.7 | 23.2% |
| Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 22.6 | 15 | 14.5% |
| Roddy White | 2010 | 19.9 | 10.1 | 10.1% |
No longer are the prototypical X receivers at the front of the fantasy landscape, and lead wideouts are being used more diversely.
Offenses are moving their best player around the formation, in the slot, and getting them more shallow targets than ever before.
The past seven WR1 overall scorers have all been in the slot for over 20% of their snaps, with five of those players clearing 30%.
Ja’Marr Chase’s early career arc is a testament to this.
Chase opened his career as a deep threat and has evolved into a full-field asset as defenses have emphasized taking away the deep ball.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati wants to get its best player the football as much as possible and has adjusted accordingly.
Ja’Marr Chase Career Usage Rates
| Year | Early Down Tgt% | Behind% | ShortTgt% | InterTgt% | DeepTgt% | Slot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 44.5% | 19.5% | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| 2022 | 21.5% | 14.7% | 47.0% | 25.4% | 12.9% | 20.6% |
| 2023 | 25.6% | 24.1% | 41.4% | 20.7% | 13.8% | 24.8% |
| 2024 | 29.2% | 14.9% | 54.3% | 19.4% | 11.4% | 32.2% |
Last season, Chase had the highest slot rate of his career, while his intermediate and deep target rates were suppressed.
That gave Chase access to more target opportunities that inherently come with a higher success rate.
That elevated his fantasy floor, while he still possesses the big play upside to turn any catch into a touchdown.
That is how (most) NFL offenses have transitioned in utilizing their best players.
If you have followed my work in the past, you have heard me talk about “free squares” and how vital those fantasy-smoothing opportunities are in today’s game for feature wideouts.
That was essentially the undoing of Marvin Harrison Jr. as a rookie, as he was tasked with succeeding in areas where NFL passing games are not currently winning.
Here was his usage last season in his first season in Arizona.
| Year | Early Down Tgt% | Behind% | ShortTgt% | InterTgt% | DeepTgt% | Slot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21.3% | 0.0% | 38.8% | 37.9% | 22.4% | 20.8% |
If we are going to use this to identify some micro-edges in the current ADP, here are the top 40 wide receivers in draft position (excluding rookies Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter) and their usage from last season.
| WR | POS ADP | Tgt/Rt% | ADOT | Short TGT% | Deep% | Slot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR1 | 24.8% | 8.7 | 68.6% | 11.4% | 32.2% |
| Justin Jefferson | WR2 | 25.2% | 10.9 | 57.1% | 14.3% | 20.0% |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR3 | 29.1% | 7.8 | 71.7% | 13.6% | 48.3% |
| Puka Nacua | WR4 | 38.3% | 7.9 | 62.2% | 9.4% | 31.6% |
| Malik Nabers | WR5 | 30.9% | 9.5 | 63.5% | 16.5% | 23.7% |
| Nico Collins | WR6 | 28.3% | 10.9 | 52.5% | 18.2% | 19.1% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR7 | 25.7% | 7.7 | 66.0% | 4.3% | 44.1% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR8 | 25.5% | 11.6 | 56.4% | 21.1% | 26.9% |
| Drake London | WR9 | 28.9% | 10.9 | 54.4% | 13.9% | 39.4% |
| A.J. Brown | WR10 | 27.3% | 12.0 | 52.5% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| Ladd McConkey | WR11 | 23.4% | 10.0 | 58.1% | 8.0% | 66.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR12 | 33.0% | 5.2 | 79.3% | 6.9% | 41.0% |
| Tyreek Hill | WR13 | 23.0% | 11.4 | 45.5% | 15.4% | 30.0% |
| Tee Higgins | WR14 | 24.7% | 9.8 | 67.9% | 8.3% | 18.1% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR15 | 21.5% | 13.5 | 38.8% | 22.4% | 20.8% |
| Garrett Wilson | WR16 | 23.7% | 9.1 | 64.9% | 13.6% | 23.7% |
| Davante Adams | WR17 | 27.2% | 8.3 | 66.7% | 14.9% | 45.4% |
| Terry McLaurin | WR18 | 21.3% | 13.3 | 51.3% | 22.2% | 16.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR19 | 21.9% | 8.7 | 62.8% | 13.9% | 77.4% |
| Mike Evans | WR20 | 26.6% | 11.6 | 48.2% | 16.4% | 25.2% |
| D.J. Moore | WR22 | 21.1% | 7.5 | 65.0% | 14.3% | 21.5% |
| DK Metcalf | WR23 | 19.7% | 13.7 | 44.5% | 31.5% | 13.3% |
| Xavier Worthy | WR24 | 19.2% | 9.2 | 66.4% | 17.3% | 33.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR25 | 19.2% | 11.4 | 53.9% | 14.3% | 30.0% |
| DeVonta Smith | WR26 | 22.8% | 9.1 | 69.7% | 12.4% | 47.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | WR27 | 23.2% | 13.2 | 46.6% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| George Pickens | WR28 | 23.7% | 13.7 | 57.3% | 29.1% | 17.8% |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR29 | 17.4% | 10.0 | 54.2% | 9.6% | 20.8% |
| Zay Flowers | WR31 | 24.9% | 10.4 | 52.6% | 19.8% | 41.7% |
| Calvin Ridley | WR32 | 22.1% | 15.7 | 34.1% | 26.7% | 23.7% |
| Rome Odunze | WR33 | 16.3% | 13.8 | 40.6% | 22.8% | 33.7% |
| Jauan Jennings | WR34 | 26.5% | 9.9 | 57.5% | 10.6% | 37.1% |
| Chris Olave | WR35 | 23.7% | 10.3 | 56.8% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| Jordan Addison | WR36 | 19.6% | 13.0 | 48.5% | 27.3% | 27.9% |
| Chris Godwin | WR37 | 25.6% | 5.7 | 75.8% | 1.6% | 61.5% |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR38 | 20.4% | 11.1 | 51.7% | 11.7% | 34.6% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR39 | 19.5% | 6.8 | 74.1% | 11.1% | 28.3% |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR40 | 22.1% | 9.9 | 61.3% | 14.0% | 33.3% |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR41 | 15.2% | 11.5 | 54.3% | 15.2% | 34.4% |
| Jayden Reed | WR43 | 19.5% | 9.1 | 60.0% | 21.3% | 71.7% |
You do not have to be so rigid and avoid any wide receiver with a low rate of usage from the slot as long as they come attached to high target rates and still have access to short targets from outside of the slot.
Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown are the poster examples of that archetype.
Even though those players all had a slot rate of 20% or lower and carried a higher overall depth of targets, they still had access to shorter targets to smooth out the necessity that their deep targets succeed, paired with a target rate per route run of over 25%.
We still want our wideouts to get targets that come with inherent upside downfield.
Still, a more diverse usage tree allows a wide receiver access to more target opportunities with a higher success rate, as opposed to those wideouts who have to rely on opportunities that play into the current defensive landscape.
That gap in lack of diversity could be the difference between a ceiling outcome for a player and one that keeps a player as a fantasy WR2 or a WR3.
This is what happened to Tyreek Hill last season, something we have highlighted throughout the positional tiers.
De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith soaked up the short yardage passing opportunities in 2024, which cratered Hill’s fantasy output.
Hill’s slot rate (30%) was his lowest since joining Miami following rates of 34.1% in 2023 and 38.6% in 2022.
He ended up relying on his highest rate of intermediate targets (36.6%) and lowest rates of short targets (45.5%) with the team.
Going further out, this highlights the usage changes we are hoping for George Pickens transitioning to Dallas and Rome Odunze getting attached to Ben Johnson.
Pairing the usage Pickens had in Arthur Smith’s offense with the usage DK Metcalf has had is a cause of concern.
Metcalf is coming off a year where he was forced to live on his highest rate of targets downfield.
31.5% of his targets came 20 or more yards downfield, the highest career rate.
Despite missing two games, Metcalf had 34 of those targets, the most in the league last year.
Metcalf’s best fantasy season (2022) coincided with his lowest dependency on deep targets.
We have harped on this as well, but Calvin Ridley needs more than Cam Ward to turn things around for a huge upside outcome.
We need Brian Callahan to give him more creative opportunities.
Ridley had the lowest short target rate on the list above.
26.7% of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield.
The only other wide receivers with 100-plus targets on the season who had a higher rate were Metcalf (31.5%), Pickens (29.6%), and Jordan Addison (28%).
This further emphasizes my concerns about Terry McLaurin, someone who is likely to start falling if we see him push his holdout.
McLaurin was already a player with a middling target rate per route, paired with depressed rates of usage on short targets and in the slot.
The addition of Deebo Samuel does not help any of those things, even if the contractual situation ends up resolved sooner rather than later.
Speaking of contracts, this type of usage is what makes Jauan Jennings stand out as a potential value.
We have some moving parts with his contract situation and the return of Brandon Aiyuk.
However, many of those components have already been factored into Jennings' pricing, and he still has a non-zero chance of being the lead wide receiver for the 49ers in 2025.
Way Too Many Words, Man:
- Targets, receptions, and yardage for wide receivers dropped in 2024 as NFL passing volume was at its lowest point in recent seasons.
- Despite losing counting stats in those areas, wide receivers accounted for their highest share of leaguewide targets since 2016. If volume returns, the other areas will spike with it.
- Despite losing targets, catches, and yards, touchdowns were up for wideouts in 2024.
- 3WR sets have been reduced, paired with the decrease in passing volume, making players who operate in one or two WR sets higher priorities.
- Target WR3 options in offenses that have high dropback rates paired with a high 11 personnel rate.
- WR1 usage has been on the rise due to a spike in full-field usage, making front end fantasy options at the position more valuable.
- When selecting wideouts as a potential WR1, look for creative usage opportunities and access to more targets that come with a higher success rate.