Each week we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to find the best options for DFS stacks.
We’re back at it again this week…searching for stacks with GPP upside. There are only two games with 50+ point totals but there are plenty of options throughout the slate. We had a great week besides the disappointment from Green Bay, so we’re going to keep rolling with the process and look for tight target concentrations and fast teams.
The Tampa Bay-Arizona game has the highest over/under on the slate. Most of the allure with the Cardinals offense has been their pace. But, they have been a much slower team over the past few weeks.
After running plays at the highest rate over the first six weeks of the season, they’ve slowed down by nearly 4.5 seconds per play and rank 21st in pace since the start of Week 7. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has sped up a little bit from 27.9 to 26.7 seconds per play.
Jameis Winston ($6,800) has shown little to no interest in throwing to anyone not named Mike Evans ($7,600) or Chris Godwin ($7,400).
Target concentration is the key when it comes to predictability in DFS. The Bucs do most of their damage through the air from 11 personnel but that’s also one of the Cardinals few strong suits on offense. The Cardinals, in general, haven’t shown much of a desire to stop opposing offenses.
On the way back, I prefer Christian Kirk ($5,200). He only saw five targets last week and didn’t do much with them, but he had a solid game the week before. I’m willing to believe Kirk will wind up with more than five targets this week. If he pushes for double-digits as Arizona falls behind, we could be in for a great day.
With the injury to Preston Williams, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) loses one of his favorite targets. Mike Gesicki ($3,100) works in similar spots on the field and should see a buoy to his floor.
With Gesicki taking over the intermediate part of the field, we could be in line for a breakout second half. From a bird’s eye view, the Colts have actually allowed the fourth-highest TE target rate. The loss of Williams, the potential breakout of Gesicki, and the matchup point to an easy stack in GPPs. Anytime you can spend just over $8,000 for a QB-TE stack that has an actual high ceiling, you have to include it in your player pool.
Fitzpatrick has a couple of 20+ DK Point performances over his past three starts. The Colts have been solid against multiple offensive packages, but 11 is one of their weaker spots. The Dolphins run nearly 70% of their plays with three WRs on the field.
The Browns have been an unmitigated disaster. They get to play a home game as favorites against a Buffalo Bills team that hasn’t been overly impressive against the run. Nearly 60% of the Browns’ rushes have come from 11 personnel. Buffalo allows a 44% success rate when facing 11 personnel.
Nick Chubb’s ($7,000) volume has been excellent all season. There have only been two games so far this season where Chubb saw fewer than four targets. Buffalo is 17th in yards per attempt allowed to running backs. The Bills have given up their fair share of explosive runs. So far in 2019, they rank 30th in explosive runs allowed. Cleveland, on the other hand, is second in explosive run rate.
Pairing the Browns DST ($2,500) with Chubb will give you a contrarian build in GPPs, as most people will be off of Cleveland, in general, this week. With a matchup against a mistake-prone quarterback in Josh Allen, it makes some sense from a turnover-upside perspective.