The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Commanders and Giants.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
NY Giants | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
6.0 | Spread | -6.0 | ||
19.75 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
16.1 | 31 | Points/Gm | 28.8 | 6 |
24.4 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 24.9 | 22 |
62.5 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 1 |
61.8 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 4 |
4.7 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 10 |
5.6 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 26 |
39.89% | 26 | Rush% | 47.42% | 7 |
60.11% | 7 | Pass% | 52.58% | 26 |
47.86% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 47.56% | 28 |
52.14% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 52.44% | 5 |
- The Giants were one of two teams (the Raiders being the other) that did not win a divisional game in 2024.
- Washington scored on 50% of their possessions in 2024, second in the league behind Detroit (51.6%). That was their highest scoring rate in a season in the 2000s.
- The Giants scored on 27.9% of their possessions in 2024, ahead of only the Browns (22.4%).
- Washington allowed 33.3 yards per possession, 26th in the league.
- The Giants allowed 32.7 yards per possession, 25th in the league.
- A league-low 5.3% of Giants passing plays gained 20 or more yards in 2024.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels: Daniels ended up with a sensational rookie season, completing 69.0% of his passes (6th) for 7.4 yards per attempt (14th).
He threw 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns to 9 interceptions.
On the ground, Daniels added 891 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Daniels opened his NFL career with a QB6 finish in points per game as a rookie (20.9).
That includes two games in which he played only 10 and 26 snaps.
In his complete games played (including the postseason), he averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game.
The strength of his fantasy output came via rushing.
Daniels averaged 7.4 rushing points per game, trailing only Jalen Hurts (9.8) and Anthony Richardson (7.6).
He scrambled on a league-high 12.5% of his dropbacks, leading the league with 595 scramble yards (188 more than the next quarterback).
While Daniels did utilize his legs to anchor his fantasy output, his passing efficiency followed his collegiate profile. He was not wholly dependent on using his legs.
He became only the eighth quarterback to have over 700 rushing yards and still have 25 or more passing touchdowns in a season. None of the other seasons were by a rookie quarterback.
Daniels did run hot in terms of end zone passing success.
59.5% (22 of 37) of his throws into the end zone were touchdowns, second only to Lamar Jackson last season.
It was the third-most efficient season in end zone success over the past decade.
However, the interesting component is that while Daniels did have luck in the touchdown department on those throws, he was at his touchdown expectation (+2.2) because he was nearly as unlucky in his teammates' ability to help him create touchdowns.
Daniels only had 3 passing touchdowns on throws that were run in by the pass catcher and not thrown into the end zone in 2024.
Only Trevor Lawrence (2) and Cooper Rush (1) had fewer. Neither played the entire season.
Washington stressed the need to add a playmaker with the football in his hands, which they accomplished by adding Deebo Samuel.
Washington also added a premier pass protector in Laremy Tunsil.
There is some push and pull with Daniels coming back to the pack in terms of end zone success, but we know what we have here as a fantasy QB1.
The Giants did what they could against Daniels during his rookie season.
In his two starts against them, Daniels finished as QB15 (13.4 points) and QB9 (19.9 points).
Daniels may not have broken the bank in terms of fantasy points in those outings, but he did complete 74.5% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Giants are a team to watch early this season because they have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, particularly up front.
How quickly it all comes together could result in a defensive turnaround, as the team ranked 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.475).
Daniels was 11th in passing points per attempt (0.468) before layering in his rushing upside.
This team could develop one of the best pass rushes in the league with Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and rookie Abdul Carter.
They also added Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland to their secondary.
Russell Wilson: Wilson is going to open the year as the starter for New York.
Pittsburgh was 6-5 in Wilson’s starts last season, which included a win over the Giants in Week 8.
Wilson was 23rd in EPA per dropback last season (0.00) and 28th in success rate (41%).
In proper Wilson form, he either threw the ball down the field or took a checkdown, with almost no middle game.
51.8% of Wilson’s throws were five or more yards downfield (25th), but 13.4% were on throws 20 or more yards downfield (9th).
On those deep throws, Wilson was third in the NFL last year in rating (113.4) and was second with a 46.7% completion percentage.
New York passers combined for a 62.4 rating (24th) and only a 26.3% completion percentage (28th) on those throws last season.
Wilson is a boom-or-bust QB2.
Washington’s pass defense improved as the season went on under Dan Quinn.
They played aggressively, blitzing on 32.5% of dropbacks (5th).
Even without blitzing, they pressured passers 34% of the time (7th).
When Wilson was pressured, he completed only 42.9% of his passes (29th) for 5.9 yards per attempt (23rd) while taking a sack on 22.8% of those dropbacks (24th).
Kept clean, Wilson completed 73.2% of his passes (14th) for 8.0 Y/A (11th).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content and Warren Sharp's betting recommendations, click below to learn more about our All-Access Package.
Learn More
More Week 1 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Cowboys @ Eagles -- FREE | NFL Kickoff Game |
Chiefs vs. Chargers -- FREE | Friday Night Football |
Bucs @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Cardinals @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Steelers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Panthers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Titans @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Texans @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Ravens @ Bills -- FREE | Sunday Night Football |
Vikings @ Bears -- FREE | Monday Night Football |