Packers vs. Lions Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Packers and Lions.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Jared Goff: Goff is coming off the best season of his career.

He set career marks in completing 72.4% of his passes, 37 passing touchdowns, and 8.6 yards per pass attempt.

Goff led the NFL in EPA dropback on third and fourth downs (0.48).

Goff even had his best season under pressure, which was the constant hole in his game.

When pressured last year, Goff had career marks across the board, completing 53.4% of his passes (9th) for 6.8 Y/A (9th).

And if you aren’t going to disrupt Goff and this passing game, he is at his best.

Goff completed a league-high 79.5% of his passes from a clean pocket for 9.3 Y/A (4th) and a 7.7% touchdown rate (3rd).

Ben Johnson put Goff in spots to harness the best of his abilities and those of his skill players.

Goff led the league in dropbacks from under center (55.6%) and play action (38%).

60.2% of his dropbacks came with pre-snap motion, which was sixth in the league.

The questions for this passing game will center around the loss of Johnson this offseason.

Detroit will have John Morton as offensive coordinator this season.

He was an assistant with the Detroit Lions in 2022 and served as the Broncos' passing game coordinator for the past two seasons under Sean Payton.

Up front, the Lions lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement while Kevin Zeitler left in free agency.

It is hard to quantify the impact of losing Johnson as coordinator and the shake-up on the offensive line will have, but they are added variables that could lead to scoring regression.

Goff was fourth in touchdowns thrown over expectations (7.4).

A large part of that was due to his playmakers creating scores on their own to a high degree.

Goff threw a league-high 22 passing touchdowns on throws that did not travel into the end zone, which made up 59.5% of his touchdowns.

The league average on those throws is 41.2%.

Goff had a 4.4% touchdown rate on his throws outside of the end zone, which would have been better than 16 quarterbacks who qualified for the league’s passer rating on all of their pass attempts.

The league touchdown rate on those throws was 2.1%.

Goff’s career rate on those throws entering last season was 2.5%.

Goff is a boom-or-bust fantasy option in Week 1.

We know there are moving parts here for the Lions, but there is plenty of talent on this offense.

This game's total is tied for the second-highest on Sunday.

There is shootout potential.

These teams combined for 38 points in Green Bay last year, but that game was also played in sloppy field conditions in the rain.

When they hooked up later in the season, these teams combined for 65 points.

Green Bay did make Goff work in those matchups.

Goff threw for 6.6 Y/A and 6.9 Y/A in those games.

The Packers blitzed Goff on 30.3% of his dropbacks, their highest rate against any quarterback last season.

On those blitzes, Goff only averaged 3.6 Y/A and 6.1 yards per completion.

Now, the Packers have added Micah Parsons to their defense to raise their pass rush.

Since entering the league, Parsons is fifth in the league in pressure rate on his pass rush snaps (20.3%).

He is dealing with a back issue that could force him to receive an injection pre-game, perhaps reducing him to a specialist role in Week 1.

When Green Bay did get pressure on Goff last season, he averaged 4.1 Y/A.

Jordan Love: During an up-and-down season plagued by multiple injuries, Love dropped to QB19 in points per game (15.6) after ranking QB6 in 2023 (18.8).

He suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the Week 1 game against the Eagles, which sidelined him for two weeks.

He then suffered a groin injury that forced him out of Week 8.

In Week 18, an elbow sprain removed him from the game.

Additionally, Love was influenced by the receiver's performance.

5.6% of his throws were dropped (5th highest).

Despite all of his missed time, Love had 34 incompletions due to receiver error (drops, falling on routes, etc.), which was the third most in the league.

Staying healthy will not be enough for Love. We need the Packers to improve their dropback rate and receiver play to return him to his 2023 output.

The Packers' dropback rate was 31st in the league (50.7%), which was 54.7% when Love was on the field.

However, there was an early indication that the Packers would be more pass-heavy, and injuries and performance were key factors in adjusting their approach.

Over Love’s first five games of the season, their dropback rate was 60.8% with him on the field.

During those five games, Love was QB11, QB3, QB14, QB3, and QB12, showcasing a strong floor and spike-week potential.

In Week 8, he suffered a groin injury and never regained his form.

With Love on the field from Week 9 on, the Packers had a 51.1% dropback rate, and Love’s output tailed off.

He had a high-scoring week of QB10 over his final nine games, with only two QB1 games and an average scoring week of QB19 (13.9 points).

Love still sported a 5.9% touchdown rate, which was higher than his rate in 2023 (5.5%).

He averaged 8.0 Y/A, up from the 7.2 Y/A he had last season.

Love is on the QB1/QB2 line in Week 1.

There is ceiling potential here if this game is a shootout, but I also believe his floor is a bit better than Goff’s based on how strong he has been when healthy the past two seasons.

This game could also feature better defensive play and letdown.

Detroit lost Aaron Glenn this offseason, elevating Kelvin Sheppard to the role of defensive coordinator.

Sheppard has been the linebackers coach in Detroit since 2021.

Glenn was a hyper-aggressive defensive play caller, so it will be interesting to see if there are changes in approach in that regard.

Detroit also has stronger personnel on the defensive side of the ball since we left off last season.

The team added defensive tackle Tyleik Williams in the first round this spring, while bringing in D.J. Reed at cornerback.

Alex Anzalone missed seven games (and one versus Green Bay) while Aidan Hutchinson missed the final 12 games with a knee injury.

Before Hutchinson was injured, Detroit posted a 38.9% pressure rate (2nd) and a 7.9% sack rate (4th).

Without Hutchinson, they had a 35.6% pressure rate (11th) and a 5.3% sack rate (31st).

Running Back

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