The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers Saturday afternoon Christmas Eve game.
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 21 | ||
| 26.4 | 5 | Points/Gm | 19.7 | 24 |
| 26 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 22.4 | 15 |
| 64.4 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 56.6 | 32 |
| 64.6 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 26 |
| 5.8 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 6.2 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 13 |
| 44.28% | 12 | Rush% | 47.60% | 8 |
| 55.72% | 21 | Pass% | 52.40% | 25 |
| 42.48% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 45.44% | 26 |
| 57.52% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 54.56% | 7 |
- The Lions have covered seven straight games, the longest streak in the league.
- The Panthers are now 0-9 in games they have trailed at any point, the only team in the league without a win after trailing at any point.
- The Lions are tied for the league lead in turnover differential since Week 8 (+10).
- The Lions are allowing 2.4 sacks plus turnovers per game, the fewest in the league.
- Just 22.2% of the Detroit drives have gone three and out failing to gain a first down or touchdown), the lowest rate in the league.
- 41.4% of the Carolina drives have gone three and out, the highest rate in the league.
- The Lions are allowing a play of 20 or more yards once every 13.5 snaps, the highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Goff faced a tough fantasy test last week against the Jets on the road and things went about as expected. Goff closed as the QB17 (14.1 points) throwing for 252 yards (6.6 Y/A) with a touchdown. The Jets were able to disrupt Goff enough. He was pressured on just 28.9% of his dropbacks, but Goff was 2-of-11 for just 14 yards (1.3 Y/A) under pressure Sunday.
That is the story with Goff and has been for his career. This season in the pocket without pressure, Goff has completed 74.2% of his passes (fifth) for 8.4 Y/A (sixth) with 17 touchdowns to three interceptions. When pressured in the pocket, Goff is completing 48.0% of his passes (28th) for 6.1 Y/A (23rd) with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
That incorporates both home and road splits, but we of course still have Goff’s wonky road splits hanging over things here. He only has three passing touchdowns over six games on the road, although his completion rate (64.6%) and yards per attempt (7.2 Y/A) on the road are well within a proxy to his rates at home.
Carolina is 24th in pressure rate on passers in the pocket (25.2%) while the Jets are seventh (30.7%) to offer a lighter matchup this week in providing clean pockets. Despite that, Carolina is still not an objectively strong matchup. The Panthers are eighth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.379), allowing a 3.9% touchdown rate (11th) and 6.7 Y/A (10th).
While those big picture numbers are not flattering, Carolina did allow 8.1 Y/A to Mitchell Trubisky last week and three touchdowns through the air the week prior to Geno Smith.
I don’t believe there is enough here to lean into Goff as a QB1, but there is enough on the outskirts here to still believe he can be a solid 2QB option with a higher range of outcomes than last week when he was a mid-QB2.
