Week 16 DFS Picks: Tournament Plays

Every week, I will go through the players I am targeting to play in DFS for all games, tournaments, and game stacks.

The idea is that this will paint a clearer picture of framing lineups.

It is not that tournament players cannot be used in cash games.

If a player here works out for your team structure in cash games surrounding your primary core, use them.

These are just the players that come with some element of inherent risk, but they also are the primary players I still want to be ahead of the field on, compared to the percentage of rosters they are projected to make this weekend.

I will analyze the player selections and game writeups, but please refer to the Week 16 Worksheet for a detailed breakdown of the players and games.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert ($8,000/$6,000)

This game could still be driven by good quarterback play on both sides, and the total remains high.

Dallas continues to struggle defending the pass, and now that their run defense is better, it is even pushing teams to throw more.

Since their Week 10 bye, teams have thrown the ball 9.8% over expectations against Dallas, the highest rate in the league.

Before their bye, offenses were throwing the ball 1.6% over expectations, 16th in the league.

The Cowboys are still allowing the most passing points in the league (19.1).

Dallas also allows the most rushing points per game (5.2) to quarterbacks, as an added lifeline for Herbert, who is averaging a career-high 3.4 rushing yards per game.

Baker Mayfield ($7,700/$5,700)

With a full complement of wide receivers available, the Bucs threw the ball more, and Mayfield threw it downfield more last week.

His 10.6 air yards per attempt were a season high.

52.9% of Mayfield’s throws were 10 or more yards downfield, his highest rate this season.

32.4% were 15 or more yards downfield, his highest rate since Week 1.

Tampa Bay threw the ball 14% over expectations, their highest rate in a game this season.

Carolina is a boom-or-bust pass defense.

We have seen them allow strong games to Tyler Shough (18.1 and 19.0 points) but also limit Brock Purdy (7.3 points) and Matthew Stafford (11.6 points) over the past five weeks.

Bo Nix ($7,600/$6,100)

Nix has thrown for at least 295 yards in three of his past four games.

Denver has shifted pass-heavy since the loss of J.K. Dobbins, throwing the ball 8.6% over expectations over their past four games.

Only the Cardinals (10.8%) have a higher pass rate over expectation over that period.

That will be a dynamic that should remain static here as offenses have thrown the ball 4.9% over expectations against the Jaguars, the second-highest rate in the league.

This Jacksonville defense is hot, but they have also faced Cam Ward, Riley Leonard, and Brady Cook the past three weeks.

Before the previous three games, Jacksonville had allowed QB1 scoring weeks in six of its previous seven games, which included Davis Mills (27.7 points) and Geno Smith (26.3 points).

J.J. McCarthy ($6,500/$4,900)

McCarthy has put together back-to-back top-10 scoring weeks.

A week after completing a season-high 69.6% of his passes against Washington, McCarthy had a season-high 10.4 yards per pass attempt against Dallas on Sunday night.

He gets another favorable matchup here.

The Giants are 29th in passing points allowed (16.3 per game).

If there is anything to note here, the Vikings have been conservative in the past three games with McCarthy, which forces efficiency.

They have thrown the ball 2.5% below expectations in those games.

That might be part of the sauce in coaxing out his best play since he operated that way in college, but we are still looking more at the matchup here to provide a path to production.

Running Back