NFL Red-Zone Stats Vs. Expectation: Running Backs

Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into running back red-zone performance.

The goal for these articles is straightforward.

We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.

While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.

Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.

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Red-Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

We are following up on our examination of league and team performance in the red zone last season and extending it to individual player analysis.

In that top-down team post, we covered not only how the majority of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside the red zone, but also that not all red-zone touches are created equal.

We also showcased in that post how NFL offenses have become more reliant on red-zone production as part of their scoring output.

The discovery of true regression candidates in this area of the field could prove pivotal, given the rising need for offenses to succeed in the red zone.

To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to passing production near the end zone since 2010:

• 86.4% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2025, that rate was 84.1%.
• 73.9% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 73.1%.
• 57.1% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 5-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 53.5%.
• 32.5% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from the 1-yard line. In 2025, that rate was 28.6%.

We inherently know that a rushing attempt from the 1-yard line is far more valuable than a carry from the 19-yard line, but they are often lumped together in analysis.

A carry from the 1-yard line is worth six times as much for fantasy production compared to an attempt from the 19-yard line.

With that, the next step is to dive into red-zone production versus expectations for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities, and weigh where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.

2025 RB Red-Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

We are going to get into the overachievers from last season shortly, but I did want to open up with one neutral performer from 2025.

No running back had a better role in the red zone last season than Christian McCaffrey.

CMC led the position in fantasy points and expected fantasy points, with both at nearly a perfect intersection of results.

McCaffrey totaled 91 touches in the red zone last year, 17 more than any other running back.

McCaffrey played a position-high 86.2% of San Francisco’s snaps in the red zone.

Inside the 10-yard line, McCaffrey had 37 of 41 backfield rushing attempts.

With CMC, you are always getting an unrivaled receiving spike, as well.

McCaffrey had 5 targets in the end zone last year.

No other running back had more than 2.

McCaffrey had a position-high 30.1% target share in the red zone last year and a 30.8% target share inside of the 10-yard line.

The next closest running back in target share inside of the red zone was Bijan Robinson (21.4%).

The next closest running back in target share inside of the 10 was RJ Harvey (18.8%).

McCaffrey’s previous high in target share in the red zone was 24.1% as a rookie back in 2017.

He was targeted on a career-high 32.9% of his routes in the red zone.

With Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, his red-zone target rates per route were 21.1% in 2024, 27.6% in 2023, and 19.4% in 2022.

Gamers can surely expect CMC to be active as a pass catcher again when available (especially in the context of other running backs), but this is an area where the addition of Mike Evans should limit those lofty rates from a year ago, moving him closer to his career numbers.

2025 Red-Zone Overachievers: Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs was the hottest performer based on opportunity last season in the red zone at the position.

Gibbs was third in fantasy points scored inside of the red zone last year while ranking seventh in expected points.

While Gibbs did run hot on his scoring chances last year, this is the part where I want to talk about not all regression being a boogeyman.

Gibbs has outperformed his usage expectations in this area of the field all three seasons, ranking 10th, second, and first in points scored over expectations since entering the league.

Secondly, he did so while sharing opportunities with David Montgomery.

Even if Gibbs does find himself more in line with top-down expectations at the position, his role in 2026 is so much stronger than it ever has been, since we expect him to take over most of the opportunities given to Monty near the end zone.

Gibbs played 61.5% of the Detroit snaps inside the red zone, which was 15th at the position.

Montgomery was 16th in expected points in the red zone on top of the expectations that Gibbs had.

Last season, Gibbs had fewer rushes (18) inside of the 10-yard line than Monty (23), while Monty also out-rushed him 14 to 9 inside of the 5-yard line.

Monty had 22 goal-to-go runs while Gibbs had 14.

Gibbs has receiving prowess to rival CMC, but he only had a 14.6% share of the Detroit red-zone targets (RB8).

Behind Gibbs in points scored over expectations was Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor had an enormous role in the red zone last year, playing 82.6% of his team’s snaps (RB4) and handling 74 of 83 backfield touches.

Taylor has bounced around in this area throughout his career.

Jonathan Taylor Red-Zone Points vs. Expectations

What stands out directly is the level of opportunity he had compared to previous seasons, outside of 2021.

Taylor scored the most fantasy points in the league last season from the 1-yard line (42.7).

His previous points from the 1-yard line were 18.0 in 2024, 18.2 in 2023, 7.1 in 2022, 24.4 in 2021, and 24.4 in 2020.

Last week, we highlighted how the Colts were one of the best goal-to-go producers of the 2000s.

If the Colts are the same offense they were over the front half of 2025, then no worries about expected regression because the role is great.

But if the Colts are going to have a fall-off and natural regression converting short-scoring trips into touchdowns and are closer to where they performed over the final month with Daniel Jones before his injury in total, things get sketchier for a potential drop-off here for Taylor.

I would say that I am more nervous about Taylor than the other top guys on the list here.

Chase Brown was third in points scored over expectations among running backs near the end zone last year while ranking 12th in expected points.

Where someone like Taylor ran hot with short-yardage plunges elevating this output, Brown made the most of his receiving opportunities.

Brown had 5 receiving touchdowns last season, second to McCaffrey.

That was while ranking 10th in target share (14.5%) and 22nd in target rate per route (19.0%) at the position.

Brown’s receiving touchdowns were from 19, 10, 9, 5, and 4 yards out.

Even with some regression for Brown here, he still has a strong top-down role, and the Bengals are still an offense I am confident in scoring points.

Brown played 73.9% of the snaps in the red zone (RB5) and was the RB12 in expected points in that area of the field.

Even with all of the ups and downs to close last season, Josh Jacobs had a prominent role near the end zone.

He was fourth in points scored over expectations at the position near the end zone and fifth in total points scored in that area of the field.

Jacobs is a similar player to Taylor, in that the role is nearly 100% his.

He just needs his team to sustain a high level of creating scoring chances.

I have more faith in Green Bay doing that than Indianapolis.

Seeing Gibbs, Taylor, Brown, and Jacobs all at the top in points over expectations isn't something that stands out, since they all still had a wealth of top-down opportunities at the position.

Bhayshul Tuten being right behind them is interesting, however.

Tuten was fifth in points scored over expectations in the red zone.

He scored more fantasy points in the red zone as a rookie than De’Von Achane and Saquon Barkley did last season.

62.5% (5 of 8) of Tuten’s goal-to-go rushing attempts resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate in the league for backs with more than two of those runs.

The base rate for running backs converting those runs was 28.2%.

Tuten also added 16- and 8-yard receiving scores on his only two targets in the red zone.

While Tuten ran hot on his opportunities as a rookie and this could be a strong regression point, Travis Etienne no longer being on the roster frees up an opportunity spike to offset per-touch rates that are more in line with the league.

Etienne was tied for fourth in the league in red zone touches (60) and was eighth in expected points inside the red zone last season.

Jacksonville did add Chris Rodriguez as potential competition here, so we cannot completely jam Tuten as a taking over the completely vacated opportunities, but this is easily the best bull case outcome for Tuten breaking out in his second season.

Speaking of Rodriguez and his last stop in Washington, the Washington backfield is wide open and expected to be compartmentalized this season to some capacity, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt was an overachiever near the end zone last season.

JCM was 18th in red zone fantasy points despite sharing the backfield, right behind Ashton Jeanty.

Croskey-Merritt had 7 rushing touchdowns in the red zone, but only two of them were inside of 5 yards.

Croskey-Merritt only turned 2 of 8 rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line (25%) into scores while Rodriguez converted 5 of 13 (38.5%).

With Rodriguez gone, there is an opportunity for Croskey-Merritt to regain some traction in those short-yardage runs, but Rachaad White has actually been better on those opportunities than you would think since the Bucs have used other backs near the end zone the past two seasons.

White has converted 12 of 23 (52.2%) of his runs inside of the 5-yard line into scores.

White is already the clear favorite to have the most passing work, so this is a potential boon for him and could point to him having more upside should he also get short-yardage chances.

The rub with fully leaning into that outcome is the presence of Kaytron Allen, who can also absorb those vacated short-yardage runs, but that is still more than priced in for White’s range of outcomes.

2025 Red-Zone Underachievers: Running Back

This is the area where things become more interesting, and we find more of the undervalued guys who do not have complete touchdown upside priced in.

Some of the biggest flips from 2024 to 2025 output come from the bottom to top.

At this time a year ago, we highlighted Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, Chase Brown, and D’Andre Swift as potential bounce-back candidates to perform better in the red zone.

Father Time has not completely come for Derrick Henry to this point, but last year was the worst short-yardage output since early in his career.

Henry was second to last in points scored versus expectations in the red zone.

Derrick Henry Red-Zone Points vs. Expectations

2025 was the first time in Henry’s career that he scored fewer points in the red zone than expectations.

Henry led the league in goal-to-go runs (35) but had his lowest conversion rate (28.6%) on those runs since 2017.

In his first season with Baltimore, Henry converted 43.5% of those runs into scores.

The Ravens did lose Tyler Linderbaum in free agency this offseason, but they are hoping that, as a whole, the changes they have made to the interior offensive line are a collective improvement since their guard play was so rough.

Ethan Pocic was just added to the roster to replace Linderbaum, while John Simpson and first-round pick Ioane Olaivavega are replacing Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele at the guard spots.

The only player worse than Henry in falling below their expected output in the red zone was Jaylen Warren.

Warren has been a largely hyper-efficient player per touch in the NFL overall, but the red zone has been a consistent thorn for his fantasy ceiling.

Jaylen Warren Red-Zone Points vs. Expectations

For his career now, Warren has converted 6 of 30 goal-to-go runs for scores (20%).

The only players with a worse rate since he entered the league and have as many opportunities are Tony Pollard (19%), Aaron Jones (18.9%), Breece Hall (18.4%), and Zack Moss (15.6%).

Rico Dowdle has converted 9 of 27 (33.3%) of those runs so far in his career.

Dowdle has converted 8 of 15 (53.3%) of his career runs inside of the 5-yard line for scores compared to a 27.3% rate (6 of 22) for Warren.

Dowdle converted 45.5% of his goal-to-go runs last year (5 of 11), which was second in the league behind Jordan Mason (50%).

In relation to the changing backfield in Pittsburgh, Kenneth Gainwell joined the Buccaneers this season.

Gainwell was 13th in expected points at the position in the red zone, and 14th in points scored.

Gainwell does not have a strong indicator of overperformance or underperformance, but I do want to highlight how strong his receiving role was last year in that area and the layering impact that could have for himself and the connecting pieces.

Gainwell accounted for 20.5% of the Pittsburgh targets in the red zone, which only trailed McCaffrey (30.1%) and Bijan Robinson (21.4%).

Gainwell was targeted on 37.5% of his routes in the red zone.

No other running back had a higher rate with as many routes last season.

The Steelers have a new offense and have also added Michael Pittman, but this would be the easiest way to suggest that Warren still is drawing life to score points if he does shed that short-yardage role to Dowdle.

Gainwell may not carry over those lofty usage rates going from Pittsburgh to Tampa Bay, but his new offensive coordinator (Zac Robinson) is at least directly tied to one of the players ahead of him in target opportunities in the red zone.

It also impacts Bucky Irving.

Irving missed a ton of time, but his role in the red zone in his second season was tied to his usage in the passing game.

Irving was targeted on 28.6% of his routes in the red zone, which was eighth among backs with double-digit opportunities.

If Irving loses receiving work in the red zone, he must find a way to gain another avenue for scoring points near the end zone, and Sean Tucker had that short-yardage rushing role last season.

Irving had zero touches inside the 5-yard line last season and played just 2 snaps in that area of the field.

Another player changing teams that I want to touch on is Kenneth Walker.

Kenneth Walker Red-Zone Points vs. Expectations

Walker is another player who has had issues near the paint, which led to losing work in that area.

In 2025, Walker set career lows with 29.7% of the snaps inside the 5-yard line with only 7 touches from that area of the field.

But his new opportunity in Kansas City is completely wide open.

Kareem Hunt was 10th in the NFL in red zone rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons.

Hunt was the RB15 in expected points in the red zone last season.

With Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL injury and the current backfield competition for short-yardage scores being Emari Demercado, Brashard Smith, and Emmett Johnson, Walker should at least spike in opportunities near the end zone.

Walker’s exit and Zach Charbonnet’s ACL injury leave a lot of immediate opportunities on the table for the Seattle backfield.

Charbonnet was eighth in the league in red zone fantasy points and ninth in expected points.

This is the upside case for Jadarian Price if he can claim that role before Charbonnet returns.

This is also where Emanuel Wilson can factor in until Charbonnet returns.

Wilson is 226 pounds, while Price was 203 at the Combine.

On top of that, we also have to factor in Charbonnet's return at some point.

Charbonnet’s timeline to return from injury is late November, in the area of Week 12.

Seattle has a Week 11 bye, so that would give him seven games to work into the lineup during the period that is most critical for fantasy gamers.

Both David Montgomery and Woody Marks are at the bottom of the list here in points expectations from last year.

Marks converted 1 of 9 runs from inside the 5-yard line for a touchdown last season.

While Marks has nowhere to go but up, I would bet on Montgomery locking up those touches in 2026, which allows us to play for some potential positive regression.

Montgomery converted 5 of 14 (35.7%) of his runs inside of the 5 last season after a career rate of 46.6% before.

We do have to talk about Saquon Barkley.

Barkley has finished with -9.1 and -8.9 points below expectations in red-zone scoring the past two seasons with the Eagles.

Over the past two seasons, Barkley has converted just 6 of 48 (12.5%) of his runs from inside the 10-yard line for touchdowns.

The “Tush Push” was not as successful in 2025 as in previous seasons, but that still impacted Barkley’s scoring output.

How much the team still uses Jalen Hurts near the end zone in 2026 is significant for Barkley getting back to the top of the position in fantasy output.

After only 6 carries from the 1-2 yard line in 2024, Barkley only had 4 carries from that area of the field last season.

Hurts still had 8 of those attempts last season and has out-rushed Barkley 26 to 10 from those yard lines the past two seasons.

Potential Backfield Splits

On the way out here, I do want to highlight some of the remaining offenses with backfield splits (or the potential to have one) near the end zone.

D’Andre Swift was much better than Kyle Monangai in the red zone last season, but this was a split backfield.

Swift and Monangai had the same number of touches inside the 5-yard line (10), while Swift played 52.9% of the snaps in that area of the field while Monangai was at 52.6%.

What was interesting about this split is that neither guy was involved in the passing game.

Monangai even out-targeted Swift 3 to 1 in the red zone.

This is the one area where Tyler Allgeier could potentially impact Jeremiyah Love in year one.

Allgeier has been one of the league’s most effective early down backs since he entered the league.

Among 56 running backs with 300-plus attempts since he was drafted, Allgeier’s 42% success rate ranks seventh.

He has a first-down-or-touchdown on 25.3% of his runs over that span, also seventh.

We could still see him pushing for work in the red zone if Arizona can get there.

We saw Allgeier being a nuisance to gamers, at times with Bijan Robinson, particularly near the end zone.

In Robinson’s rookie year, Allgeier handled 4 runs inside of the 5-yard line while Robinson had only 2.

Both J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey were overachievers in the red zone last year, but when both backs were healthy, Dobbins dominated work.

Through Week 10 and his injury, Dobbins played 59% of the red zone snaps compared to Harvey’s 34.6%.

Dobbins out-touched Harvey 19 to 9 in the red zone over that span and out-rushed the rookie 5 to 1 inside the 5-yard line.

The red zone is still where Kyren Williams has made his fantasy football money.

Kyren Williams Red-Zone Points vs. Expectations

Over the past three seasons, Williams has finished second, first, and third in fantasy points scored in the red zone.

Williams played 69.2% of the snaps in the red zone and out-touched Corum 58 to 26 in that area.