Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into how tight ends have scored fantasy points in recent seasons.
The goal for these articles is straightforward.
We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
| 2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2026 League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon) |
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League-Wide Tight End Usage Since 2010
| Year | Tgt/Gm | Lg. TGT% | Rec/Gm | League% | Yd/Gm | League% | Td/Gm | League% | PPR/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.5 | 23.8% | 10.5 | 25.5% | 106.6 | 23.7% | 0.9 | 28.4% | 26.2 |
| 2024 | 14.0 | 22.4% | 10.2 | 23.8% | 102.1 | 21.9% | 0.7 | 22.0% | 24.3 |
| 2023 | 13.7 | 21.3% | 9.8 | 22.5% | 99.6 | 21.1% | 0.6 | 22.8% | 23.5 |
| 2022 | 13.4 | 21.1% | 9.3 | 21.7% | 97.5 | 20.8% | 0.7 | 26.4% | 23.4 |
| 2021 | 13.9 | 20.9% | 9.5 | 21.4% | 101.0 | 20.7% | 0.7 | 24.1% | 24.3 |
| 2020 | 14.2 | 21.1% | 9.6 | 21.0% | 103.5 | 20.3% | 0.9 | 26.8% | 25.5 |
| 2019 | 13.9 | 20.8% | 9.5 | 21.4% | 103.2 | 20.5% | 0.8 | 24.8% | 24.5 |
| 2018 | 13.4 | 19.9% | 9.1 | 20.3% | 103.5 | 20.4% | 0.7 | 22.6% | 24.0 |
| 2017 | 13.8 | 20.7% | 8.9 | 21.0% | 98.1 | 20.5% | 0.8 | 26.6% | 23.3 |
| 2016 | 14.4 | 20.5% | 9.5 | 21.2% | 105.1 | 20.6% | 0.7 | 23.5% | 24.4 |
| 2015 | 15.1 | 21.4% | 9.8 | 21.8% | 107.6 | 20.8% | 0.8 | 25.1% | 25.6 |
| 2014 | 13.9 | 20.2% | 9.1 | 20.7% | 100.2 | 19.9% | 0.8 | 26.8% | 24.1 |
| 2013 | 14.5 | 20.8% | 9.3 | 21.5% | 106.9 | 21.2% | 0.9 | 29.5% | 25.5 |
| 2012 | 15.0 | 21.9% | 9.6 | 22.7% | 104.6 | 21.3% | 0.8 | 26.7% | 24.8 |
| 2011 | 14.6 | 21.9% | 9.2 | 22.6% | 106.9 | 21.9% | 0.8 | 27.0% | 24.6 |
| 2010 | 14.3 | 21.6% | 9.0 | 22.0% | 99.8 | 21.1% | 0.8 | 25.8% | 23.5 |
The tight end position continued to surge last season.
Tight end targets per game have gone up from the year before in each of the past three seasons.
In 2025, the position received the most targets per game in a year since 2015.
The position had its most receptions, receiving yardage, and receiving fantasy points per game in the 2000s.
Looking at share of league-wide opportunities, tight ends had their largest target share, share of league receptions, and receiving yardage in the 2000s.
Tight ends caught 231 touchdown passes after catching 178 in 2024 and 172 in 2023.
They caught their most touchdowns per game since 2020 and their most collective touchdowns in a season since 2013.
Those touchdown receptions were 28.4% of the league total, the highest rate for tight ends in a season since that 2013 campaign.
If you have been following this series throughout the week, none of this is a surprise.
But if this is the first time you have checked in on this series, the increased usage of tight ends and more tight ends on the field at once has steadily been on the rise.
NFL Pass Plays Out of Heavy Sets
| Year | Under Center | 2+TE | 6+OL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.9% | 25.3% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | 15.3% | 22.6% | 1.0% |
| 2023 | 14.0% | 20.3% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | 17.0% | 19.7% | 1.1% |
| 2021 | 17.8% | 20.6% | 1.6% |
| 2020 | 19.1% | 21.4% | 1.0% |
| 2019 | 19.7% | 20.7% | 1.6% |
| 2018 | 20.1% | 18.2% | 1.3% |
| 2017 | 22.0% | 20.6% | 1.3% |
| 2016 | 19.5% | 18.8% | 2.3% |
A quarter of the league’s pass plays last season had two or more tight ends on the field, the highest rate in the 2000s.
In the first post from this series, we highlighted how the league has shown no signs of slowing down and is taking this approach as far as they can, since these heavier sets have been their way of combating and manipulating defensive personnel.
With the league playing more zone coverage and lighter defenses coming out of the 11-personnel passing boom, offenses have tried to put those defenses in a bind by going heavy.
If the defense wants to remain in sub-packages against those heavy looks, then they better be able to stop the run.
Offenses are now throwing more out of those sets when they can get the defense to match heavy personnel.
You can’t throw out of those sets unless you have viable threats at the tight end position in the passing game.
At the NFL Combine, the league invited a record 27 tight ends.
22 tight ends were drafted this spring, up from 15 in 2025 and 12 in 2024.
It was the most tight ends selected in a draft since 2002.
We know more tight ends are being featured and scoring fantasy points, but the compelling part of this surge at the position is that it has actually made the top of the position weaker for fantasy purposes.
I know that sounds silly to suggest after Trey McBride was just second in the NFL in receptions and set a new record for the position, so allow me to dig into that.
Fantasy TE1 Positional Output Share Since 2010
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | PPR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.8% | 32.1% | 32.9% | 32.9% | 32.4% |
| 2024 | 32.1% | 33.0% | 35.1% | 40.0% | 35.5% |
| 2023 | 34.6% | 35.6% | 36.8% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| 2022 | 30.3% | 30.4% | 32.2% | 32.3% | 32.7% |
| 2021 | 32.0% | 32.1% | 36.7% | 32.0% | 35.6% |
| 2020 | 32.2% | 32.5% | 34.3% | 34.3% | 33.5% |
| 2019 | 33.1% | 34.6% | 37.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| 2018 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 37.6% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
| 2017 | 33.2% | 34.5% | 34.1% | 36.6% | 34.7% |
| 2016 | 33.5% | 34.5% | 35.6% | 34.6% | 34.8% |
| 2015 | 33.4% | 34.7% | 37.7% | 40.8% | 37.0% |
| 2014 | 34.4% | 35.6% | 38.4% | 41.2% | 37.8% |
| 2013 | 33.8% | 34.9% | 36.3% | 40.5% | 36.8% |
| 2012 | 33.2% | 34.8% | 35.3% | 39.6% | 36.0% |
| 2011 | 36.1% | 38.0% | 39.7% | 42.3% | 39.8% |
| 2010 | 31.7% | 33.7% | 35.1% | 39.2% | 35.4% |
Even with McBride’s historic output last year, TE1 fantasy scorers accounted for the fewest share of top-down fantasy points at the position in any year since 2010.
TE1 scorers combined for 31.8% of the targets at the position, their lowest rate in a season since 2010.
Since 2020, we have had only five seasons in which a tight end reached a 25% share of his team’s targets.
McBride is the only tight end to do it multiple times over that span.
In 2025, TE1 scorers produced the third-lowest share of receptions at the position in the sample above, the second-lowest rate of yardage, and the third-lowest rate of touchdowns.
When you look at the lowest rates of TE1 production in the table above, nearly all of the lower-end marks have come during this rise in offensive sets featuring multiple tight ends.
This is adjacent to something we harped on when the 11-personnel boom occurred across the league.
With more tight ends playing snaps and running routes, the position has diluted itself to a degree, making it harder to latch onto viable individual fantasy options despite the position scoring more points overall.
We brought this up in the tiers for tight ends, but 2025 was a weak season for competition at the position.
The TE2 overall (Kyle Pitts) produced only 66.7% of McBride’s total scoring output.
That is the largest disparity of TE2 scoring compared to the TE1 in any season ever.
It was only the third time since 1990 that the TE2 failed to produce 75% of the TE1 output, and just the 10th time over those 35 seasons that the TE2 was below 80%.
Needless to say, we can bet that the field of the position will be tighter this season, regardless of who finishes as the top scorer in 2026.
Last season, there were only two tight ends who reached 200 PPR fantasy points, and Pitts (210.8) just got there.
That was after four hits for that arbitrary threshold in 2024, and six got there in 2023.
You have to go back to 2010 to find a season with fewer.
Brock Bowers, George Kittle, and Tucker Kraft all missed time and were on a per-game trajectory to get there, but even including those three with McBride, they were the only tight ends to score more than 12.5 PPR points per game last season.
In 2024, six tight ends were at that mark.
In 2023, there were seven.
The Impact of the Running Game
We have established that teams are using heavier sets to counter lighter defensive looks and sustain offensive leverage.
That has also begun to reveal more compartmentalized roles within the position.
Last season, we had only five tight ends on the field for 80% of their team’s dropbacks, and two at 90% or higher.
In comparison, wide receivers had 23 players on the field for 80% or more of their team’s dropbacks and 11 at 90% or higher.
That is part of why it is so challenging for tight ends to keep up with wide receivers, and why so few can reach WR1 fantasy output levels.
Fantasy points at tight end are more heavily correlated to routes run than they are at wide receiver.
The past five TE1 overall scorers have also led the position in routes.
Pitts (TE2 in overall scoring) and Travis Kelce (TE3) were not even strong week-to-week fantasy options, but were second and third at the position in routes run, so it pushed them up the ranks in overall fantasy points scored at the position.
With the rise of heavier personnel, we have seen the “big slot” archetype within the position get pushed out of some of these heavier looks where teams want to run the football and, in turn, incorporate the play-action pass.
Those slot-dependent tight ends have felt some squeeze in this era if their team does not believe they can contribute in the run game.
Players like Josh Oliver, Dawson Knox, and Adam Trautman, among others, are having an impact on their receiving teammates.
Especially if their teams are good and they play more running-game scripts.
We do not get fantasy points for run blocking, but removing that tight end from the field in those sets does dent top-down route participation, since no team is 100% run in those sets.
We have also established that the under-center, play-action passing targets are the most valuable you can have for fantasy production.
This has been a thorn for Dalton Kincaid‘s chances of breaking out despite being hyper-efficient and having high route utilization.
Kincaid was targeted on 24.3% of his routes last season (TE3) and led the position in yards per route run (2.83), but was only on the field for 49.8% of Buffalo dropbacks in his games played.
The Bills ran the ball only 28.5% of the time with Kincaid in the game, compared to a 47.7% run rate on the snaps Knox played.
This was a problem for Oronde Gadsden, as the Chargers had to adjust to their losses on the offensive line.
The Chargers ran the ball 30.5% of the time with Gadsden on the field compared to 49.9% with him off the field.
Charlie Kolar was a decorated receiving prospect coming out of Iowa State, but he has been a feature asset in the run game in the NFL when he has gotten on the field.
Kolar’s offenses in Baltimore ran the ball 69.2% of the time with him in the game, the highest rate for any tight end in the league since he entered the NFL.
This is what doomed Evan Engram from being a good pick last season.
Denver ran the ball 15.5% of the time with Engram on the field, and he ended up on the field for only 53.9% of the dropbacks.
This is why Mike Gesicki has never been a fantasy staple over his career.
The way to overcome being a limited blocker (not by talent, but by team assessment) is to be a legitimate passing-game asset in an offense forced to pass at a high rate.
If you are on a lousy team, odds are that you will be running a lot of routes.
This is how Harold Fannin overcame being a limited player in the run game, but also why he could be fragile if the Browns are better in 2026 or have added enough target competition to reduce his top-down usage.
Fannin ranked 76th in run blocking grade at Pro Football Focus among tight ends out of 87 qualifiers.
The Browns ran the ball 38.4% of the time with Fannin on the field, but 50% of the time with Blake Whiteheart.
Players such as Kenyon Sadiq, Chig Okonkwo, Isaiah Likely, and Juwan Johnson are all in the same player archetype as Kincaid, Gadsden, and Fannin, something to consider when projecting how much ceiling we can squeeze from those options.
All of those players play with tight ends who can contribute in the run game and limit their overall route participation.
All of those players can be efficient per target but may have some volatility week-to-week in managed formats, which is frustrating for gamers.
Tight end is a low-bar position, so you can ride out the spike weeks if you're willing to take on low points, but that paints them as options you would prefer to target in best ball.
Bowers is not extremely active in the run game, but he has the Kelce factor of being such a special target in the passing game (with next to no target competition) that he still is playing every-down snaps despite his limitations as a blocker.
The Raiders ran the ball 41.2% of the time on Michael Mayer’s snaps last season compared to a 29.4% run rate for Bowers, but Bowers has still been on the field for 84.5% and 89.2% of the team dropbacks in his games played to open his career.
