NFL Red Zone Stats vs. Expectation: Tight Ends

As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2024 we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.

In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal.

To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to passing production near the end zone, since 2010:

• 66.8% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate stayed on par exactly at 66.8%.
• 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was at 44.8%.
• 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 23,7%.

Over the past decade, a target from the 19-yard line has been worth 1.8 fantasy points on average.

A target from the 10-yard line jumps up to 2.2 points on average.

A target from the five-yard line climbs to 2.8 points on average.

A target in the actual end zone is worth 3.0 points on average.

You get the drift.

The closer you get to the end zone, the more valuable the opportunity is for fantasy points.

With that knowledge in place, the next step is diving into red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weighing in where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.

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2023 TE Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

Overachievers

It has been mentioned several times this offseason how much Sam LaPorta’s rookie season was elevated for fantasy through touchdown production.

We are throwing another log on that fire.

LaPorta scored 4.4 touchdowns over expectations last season, the most of any tight end.

No tight end scored more points over expectations in the red zone than LaPorta did in 2023.

He led all tight ends in red zone scoring and was fourth in expected points.

53.3% (8-of-15) of LaPorta’s red zone targets went for touchdowns, the highest percentage among all players with double-digit red zone targets.

50% (4-of-8) of his end zone targets resulted in touchdowns. The average conversion rate for tight ends was 43.2%.

LaPorta was third at the position in target share (23.1%) inside of the red zone and led all tight ends with 33.3% of his team’s end zone targets.

Volume should still be here for him in 2024, but there should be an expected regression in his conversion rates.

Mark Andrews had a higher rate of fantasy production stemming from touchdown production (26.6%) than LaPorta did last season (25.1%).

Despite playing in only 10 games, Andrews was second at the position in fantasy points scored in the red zone and was sixth in expected points.

Andrews averaged 1.4 red zone targets per game, which led all tight ends. He was targeted on 35.0% of his routes in the red zone, which led the position.

Like LaPorta, that type of volume should keep Andrews afloat even if we are anticipating a decrease in success rate per target.

42.9% of his red zone targets resulted in a touchdown after he entered the season with a career rate of 36.9%.

50% of his end zone targets went for touchdowns, a slight bump from his career rate of 45.6%.

Hunter Henry has been a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option and the table above illustrates how hot he ran last season on his opportunities.

Henry was sixth in fantasy points scored in the red zone despite ranking 25th in expected points.

He had only six total red zone targets on the season, but five of them (83.3%) were touchdowns.

His career rate entering last season was 34.2%.

All six of those targets did at least come in the end zone, but his career rate in converting end zone targets is 56.4%.

Cole Kmet is the last player who was double-digit points above expectations that I will hit on here.

Kmet turned 66.7% (4-of-6) of his targets inside of the 10-yard into touchdowns, second in the NFL behind Romeo Doubs (75%) for all players with five or more targets in that area of the field.

Kmet also turned 75% of his end zone targets (6-of-8) into touchdowns, bested only by Henry among all tight ends with five or more targets in the paint.

Kmet’s career rate is 47.6%.

Compounding a potential return to his career rates, Kmet’s volume in the red zone is compromised with all of the changes in Chicago at offensive coordinator, quarterback, and the additions of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

Kmet led all tight ends with a 26.8% target share in the red zone in 2023.

Underachievers

We had a few interesting names at the bottom of the list last season who could be due a turnaround in 2024.

Jake Ferguson was the only tight end in the top 10 in red zone fantasy points scored last season who also finished below expectations.

Only three tight ends had more points below their expected output.

Ferguson was first in expected red zone points by a wide margin over the tight end in second place.

He was fourth among all tight ends with 22.1% of his team’s red zone targets in the regular season but ranked 43rd in touchdown rate in the red zone (21.7%) among all players with double-digit targets.

He had nine targets in the actual end zone (tied for second among tight ends), but only three were touchdowns.

The average conversion rate for tight ends was 43.2%.

We did see regression find Ferguson in the postseason when he caught three touchdowns on four red zone targets.

I have penned a good amount on how Dallas should be expected to have fewer end zone targets this season, but Ferguson could fight off a drop in overall target opportunities with an increase in conversion rates.

No tight end scored more points below expectations in the red zone last season than Tyler Conklin.

He was 12th among tight ends in expected points but finished 29th in points scored on the list above.

22.2% of Conklin’s red zone targets were inaccurate throws while the base rate for tight ends last season was 12.1%.

He was the only tight end with three or more end zone targets last season that did not have a touchdown.

Conklin scored 3.9 touchdowns below expectations last season, the most of any tight end.

Now, his overall expectations were 3.9 touchdowns, so we do not need to go wild here, but the Jets are a team we have covered heavily the past two weeks in having more overall scoring opportunities in 2024 paired with Conklin receiving a significant upgrade at quarterback.

Just ahead of Conklin at the bottom of the table was David Njoku.

Njoku was behind only Ferguson and Travis Kelce in expected red zone points, but he finished 11th in actual points scored.

Njoku led all tight ends with 10 targets in the end zone last season, but only three were touchdowns.

This has been an ongoing issue for Njoku.

For his career, he has now turned 34.0% of his end zone targets into touchdowns. Since he entered the league, no tight end in the NFL has more end zone targets than Njoku and a lower touchdown rate.

While I would still be willing to bet the base rate at the position leading to a potential breakout for Njoku in terms of cashing in his opportunities for scores, we do have a few other elements in play here that can compromise his volume in that area of the field.

Njoku has caught 10 touchdown passes in the past two seasons, but only three are from Deshaun Watson.

Njoku has 16 targets in the end zone over the past two seasons (third at the position) but just two of them are from Watson.

Watson has thrown 21 passes into the end zone with the Browns, and Amari Cooper is the only player with more than two of those targets (he has 10 of them).

He only has a 9.5% target share on Watson’s throws into the end zone compared to a 23.7% target share from all of the other Cleveland quarterbacks to throw the football into the end zone.

The weird part is that Watson has targeted Njoku on a team-high 35.7% of his red zone passes, just not in the end zone.

With the addition of Jerry Jeudy, that volume share is in limbo, but at least Njoku is priced in an area where he comes with some added upside should Watson start throwing the ball to him in the actual end zone.

The last player I want to touch on here is Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid was 2.9 touchdowns below expectations last season.

He did not score a touchdown in the red zone last season.

Including his touchdown in the postseason, Kincaid’s three touchdowns last season were from 22, 22, and 29 yards out.

We need more usage near the end zone for Kincaid for him to pay off his high draft capital this offseason.

Kincaid was only 14th in expected points in the red zone, right on par with Dawson Knox.

Kincaid had nine targets in the red zone while Knox had eight.

Knox edged Kincaid in targets in the end zone 4-to-3.

Kincaid’s 14.5% target share in the red zone was 17th among all tight ends.

His 7.7% share of the Buffalo end zone targets ranked 34th among tight ends.

While Knox still presents a hurdle for Kincaid to topple in the red zone, the Bills have a ton of moving parts to open up more opportunities.

Gabe Davis (15) and Stefon Diggs (10) combined for 25 end zone targets. Neither remains on the roster.

Kincaid needs to soak up a significant share of those available targets in year two.