What We Can Learn: Team Red Zone Stats & Production

As we are pushing into July and further downhill towards the 2024 fantasy season, we are going to extend our top-down approach that started with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.

The goal is that come late August, we have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.

We opened up this series with a look at how the league and teams performed per drive in terms of scoring, efficiency, and what type of scoring plays offenses leaned on.

We then followed that up with a dive into how good and bad teams were at converting yardage into touchdowns and the dispersal of those touchdowns through the air and on the ground.

To close up this series, we are diving into offensive performance in the red zone.

Leaguewide Red Zone Production Since 2010

*All Drives exclude possessions that end in kneel-downs

We have spent a great deal of time covering how NFL offenses have struggled over the past two seasons, and that rolls right over into the table above.

The touchdown rate per drive in the red zone did rise from 2022, but fewer drives reached the red zone overall.

Just 28.6% of all drives last season reached the red zone, the lowest rate since 2017.

We also have spent some time over the past two weeks covering how the league struggled to turn explosive plays into touchdowns.

That also shows up here as 76.9% of all the offensive touchdowns last season came from inside of the red zone.

The rate of red zone reliance for touchdowns has been steadily on the rise.

The four highest seasons in the rate of league touchdowns coming from inside of the red zone over the 14-year sample have all come in each of the past four seasons.

It is not a secret that the closer you get to the end zone, the easier it is to produce a touchdown, but last season was an outlier.

Look at the numbers since 2010 compared to the rates from 2023 to highlight how much of an issue the NFL had generating explosive touchdowns last season:

• 73.8% of all touchdowns scored came from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate was 76.9%.
• 73.5% of all red zone touchdowns scored came from inside of the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 74.7%.
• 47.2% of all red zone touchdowns were scored from inside the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 49.6%.
• 86.3% of all rushing touchdowns came from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate was 89.4%.
• 66.8% of all passing touchdowns came from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate stayed on par exactly at 66.8%.
• 73.7% of all rushing touchdowns came from inside of the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 75.1%.
• 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall came from inside of the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was at 44.8%.
• 57.1% of all rushing touchdowns came from inside the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 59.6%.
• 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall came from inside of the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 23.7%.
• 43.3% of all rushing touchdowns overall came from the 1-2 yard lines. In 2023, that rate was 44.7%.

It is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances, but even two-thirds of the league’s passing touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.

The numbers above also further illuminate why the decline in rushing opportunities for running backs closer to the end zone has had a significant impact on fantasy within the position.

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Red Zone Drive Rate in 2023

*Red Zone Drive Rates Include TDs scored before reaching the red zone

The Cowboys are a team we have highlighted several times this week as a major regression candidate in terms of scoring efficiency.

Last season, Dallas led the NFL with 47.7% of their possessions reaching the red zone or scoring a touchdown before the red zone.

Since 2000, only 10 other teams have had a higher rate of drives reaching the red zone or scoring prior.

All 10 of those teams had that rate drop in the following season while only one of those teams matched their overall touchdown total from the previous season.

Seven of those 10 teams had a double-digit drop in overall touchdowns the next season.

The 49ers are another team that has come up often this week.

San Francisco reached the red zone or scored earlier in the drive on 45.8% of their possessions, their highest rate as a team in the 2000s.

Of the 24 teams to have a 45% rate or higher in reaching the red zone, just one increased that rate in the following season.

Just three of those teams scored more touchdowns the following season.

We had another five teams (Lions, Packers, Bills, Dolphins, and Ravens) arbitrarily reach the red zone on 40% or more of those drives.

65 other teams had a rate that high in the 2000s.

62 of those teams had a lower rate the following season.

Just 15 of those 65 teams scored more touchdowns the following season.

At the bottom of the table, the Patriots reached the red zone or scored beforehand on only 19.7% of their possessions.

Only 12 other teams in the 2000s had a worse rate.

All 12 of those teams increased that lowly rate the following season while 10 of those 12 teams increased their overall touchdown total by double digits.

I certainly do not anticipate the 2024 Patriots being dynamic, but there is an ultra-low bar here for improvement.

Three other teams (the Jets, Panthers, and Giants) were all below the 25% rate.

There have been 90 other teams in that bucket in the 2000s.

83 of those 90 teams increased their rate the next season.

70 of those teams scored more touchdowns the next season with an average increase of 10.4 touchdowns among them.

Red Zone Touchdown Rate 2023

The 49ers led the NFL in converting 67.2% of their red zone drives for touchdowns.

While that did not threaten any major all-time outliers, we have been here before, even with these 49ers.

In 2021, they led the NFL with a 66.7% red zone conversion rate.

They dropped to 18th the next season.

Now, this is the part where I remind you that not all regression is a boogeyman.

For one, the 49ers leading the NFL in red zone conversion in two of the past three seasons should be a net positive for believing in the upside of this offense and system.

Second, even with a drop in red zone conversion rate in that 2022 season, San Francisco still scored two more offensive touchdowns than they did in 2021 because they reached the red zone more often.

As noted above, we should anticipate that rate to also decline in 2024, but the 49ers are a team where I am baking in regression for this season while still holding the context that they will be one of the better offenses in the NFL as a whole.

The interesting element to the 49ers as it relates to current draft capital in fantasy leagues is that nobody is egregiously priced to the point we are overplaying individual ceilings.

Pairing this table with the previous one also highlights several standouts.

The Chiefs were ninth in the NFL in rate of drives to reach the red zone but 17th in turning their red zone drives into touchdowns.

It was only the second time with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback that Kansas City converted fewer than 60% of their red zone scores into touchdowns.

The last time that happened was 2019.

The following season, the Chiefs came back and scored 53 offensive touchdowns.

The Packers are a wild team when going under the hood on their output from last season.

Green Bay was fourth in the NFL in the rate of drives to reach the red zone but was 19th in red zone touchdown rate.

While that alone is a positive signal that Green Bay left meat on the bone last season, the crazy part is that the Packers converted 95% of their goal-to-go possessions into touchdowns.

Not only did that lead the league last year, but it was the highest rate for any team in the 2000s.

There were only five other teams in the 2000s that converted 90% or more of their goal-go-go drives into touchdowns.

All of them had a drop in that rate in the following season and scored fewer touchdowns in total.

The fact that Green Bay had such a low red zone conversion rate overall paired with an all-time outlier in goal-to-go conversion rate is a head-scratcher.

Their short-yardage splits are a signal that they should regress in 2024, but their overall red zone conversion rates are a signal in the opposite direction.

We also are expecting the Packers to be a high candidate to throw fewer touchdowns in 2024, which further makes it tougher to diagnose if splitting the difference of them scoring fewer short touchdowns and converting more mid-rage red zone opportunities.

This series has unearthed a plethora of data points highlighting the historic futility of the 2023 Jets and this is no exception.

The Jets converted only 32.4% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns.

Not only was that significantly lower than the No. 31 ranked team, but it was the worst rate for a team since 2010.

Only eight teams in the 2000s have posted a lower red zone conversion rate.

The good news is that like most of the bottom-end statistics related to the 2023 Jets, there is a low hurdle for improvement.

Of those eight teams worse than the 2023 Jets, all of them had an increase in red zone conversion rate the following season while all of them scored more offensive touchdowns.

Nine other teams converted fewer than half of their red zone drives into touchdowns.

Historically, that has been a signal for improvement.

75.1% of all teams in the 2000s that have converted fewer than half of their red zone drives into touchdowns have come back and increased that rate in the following campaign.

64.6% of those teams have scored more overall touchdowns in that next season with an average increase of 8.7 touchdowns among those teams.

Who Even Needs the Red Zone?

Yesterday, we highlighted the Buccaneers as a top candidate to have a reduction in passing touchdown rate among their scores this upcoming season.

This further illuminates where they overachieved last season.

In a year in which the league struggled to generate long touchdowns, 38.9% of the Tampa Bay touchdowns came from outside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.

Baker Mayfield led the NFL with 14 touchdown passes from outside of the red zone.

If looking to draw some potentially correlated parallels here, the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator from last season is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers had a league-high 90.0% of their touchdowns come from the red zone.

They scored just two offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone.

Only three teams in the 2000s have scored fewer touchdowns from outside of the red zone than last year’s Carolina squad.

The good news is that not only did all those teams score more long-distance touchdowns the next season, but they all scored more touchdowns overall.

We have talked about how the Chiefs have had issues generating big plays since the trade of Tyreek Hill and are hoping to bounce back in that area with the additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have had 13 total touchdowns from outside of the red zone, which is tied for 27th in the league.

After 84.8% of their touchdowns were scored from inside of the red zone in 2022, 89.2% were scored from inside of the red zone last season, trailing only the Panthers.

From 2017-2021 with Hill, the Chiefs led the NFL in touchdowns scored outside of the red zone by 15 more than the next closest team.

31.3% of their touchdowns over that period were from outside of the red zone.

That has matriculated right over to Miami.

The Dolphins were 29th in the NFL in touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone 2017-2021.

They were sixth in touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone in 2022 and then led the league in that department last season.

It was not all Hill, but his presence helped.

Hill had nine of those 19 long-distance touchdowns himself, which was more than 15 teams had in total last season.