NFL Red Zone Stats vs. Expectation: Wide Receivers

As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2024 we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.

In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal.

Just to reiterate some notes from that article that relate to passing production near the end zone, since 2010:

• 66.8% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate stayed on par exactly at 66.8%.
• 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was at 44.8%.
• 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 23.7%.

Over the past decade, a target from the 19-yard line has been worth 1.8 fantasy points on average.

A target from the 10-yard line jumps up to 2.2 points on average.

A target from the five-yard line climbs to 2.8 points on average.

A target in the actual end zone is worth 3.0 points on average.

You get the drift.

The closer you get to the end zone, the more valuable the opportunity is for fantasy points.

With that knowledge in place, the next step is diving into red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weighing in where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.

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2023 WR Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

Las Vegas Luck in Both Directions

I do not know who had Jakobi Meyers finishing second in overall points and scoring the most points over expectations in the red zone last season at the position, but here we are.

Only CeeDee Lamb scored more red zone points than Meyers last season, a player who used to be on the wrong end of scoring jokes.

Meyers made up for years of scoring regression in New England in one swoop last year, catching six red zone touchdowns, running for two more, and even adding one through the air.

He was 17th in expected points.

Only two of his six touchdown receptions in the red zone were caught in the actual end zone.

He had just six total targets in the end zone, tied for 46th at the position.

Meyers’ teammate, Davante Adams, was second in the NFL in expected points at the position in the red zone.

Adams finished sixth at the position in realized points scored but was the only wide receiver in the top 10 in red zone points scored to finish below his expected points total.

Adams had 29 targets inside of the red zone, second to only Lamb.

The downside was that 20.7% of those were charted as inaccurate throws, the highest rate for any wide receiver with more than 15 targets in the red zone.

Quarterback play has been an issue for Adams moving away from his attachment to Aaron Rodgers.

Adams leads the NFL with 51 red zone targets over the past two seasons but has secured only 50.9% of those targets after a 65.6% rate with the Packers.

He has a touchdown on 19.6% of those targets after posting a 35% rate with Green Bay.

San Francisco Gold Rush

Given everything, we have covered the past two weeks on team performance, it should not be shocking to see both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk significantly outproduce their actual red zone opportunities.

On one hand, this is a testament to how good these players and the offensive system in San Francisco are.

On the other hand, that limited usage is what makes it so hard when faced with pushing the button on those wideouts at cost in fantasy drafts.

These are receivers who are forced to live on hyper-efficiency while many of their peers in ADP have stronger usage rates.

Samuel finished fourth among all wide receivers in red zone fantasy points despite ranking ninth in expected points.

Samuel is a unique player because of how he is used in the running game compared to others in the position.

He has more rushing touchdowns in the red zone than receiving scores in each of the past three seasons.

The wild part is that Samuel only had two rushing attempts inside of the 10-yard line, the same number as CeeDee Lamb.

He has had 11 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons of 10 or more yards (three more in 2023).

The next closest wide receiver has two.

Only Derrick Henry has more (12) across the entire league.

As a receiver, Samuel had only three total targets in the end zone, the same number as Ronnie Bell.

That is not an anomaly, either.

Samuel has 15 total targets over his career while in the end zone. The most he has ever had in a single season is five.

For some context, that is the same number of end zone targets that Justin Watson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Keelan Cole, and Jalen Guyton have over that same stretch.

Samuel has just 11.7% of the team's end zone targets since entering the league.

That said, at least his overall usage was still in the top 10 among the position.

Aiyuk cannot say the same.

Aiyuk sits 51st on the table above in expected red zone points from last season, below players such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Palmer, and Demarcus Robinson.

Aiyuk was third on that same list in points scored over expectations, however.

He had only nine total red zone targets in 2023, tied for 48th at the position.

Aiyuk made up for things by converting 5 of his 7 end zone targets for touchdowns (71.4%).

No wide receiver with more than 5 targets in the end zone converted at a higher rate.

The league conversion rate for wide receivers was 36.2%.

More Caution in Green Bay

We have written several posts highlighting how much Green Bay overachieved near the end zone as a team, including Jordan Love’s production over expectations in that area earlier this week.

With that, it is not a shock to see the top four wide receivers for the Packers all outkick their expectations in the red zone last season.

We will start with Jayden Reed, who was the primary beneficiary of that efficiency.

Reed was sixth among all wideouts last season in points scored over expectations in the red zone.

He was 10th at the position in red zone points scored despite sitting 26th in expected points.

Reed only had 14.7% of the team's red zone targets including the postseason.

He was targeted on 18.8% of his routes in the red zone while Romeo Doubs was at 22.6% and Christian Watson was at 27.7%.

Reed was only on the field for 70.8% of the team's dropbacks in the red zone.

Watson was only on the field for 41.6% of red zone dropbacks due to his injuries, but he only had two fewer targets in the red zone than Reed had in that area.

Watson still managed 14 end zone targets over his limited snaps.

Doubs had 17 over the full season while Reed had just nine.

Doubs converted 53.3% of his end zone targets for touchdowns while the rate for wide receivers was 36.2%.

Reed was at 44.4% while Watson was closer to the base rate (35.7%).

This is why I still value Watson as the best option from this group in fantasy drafts.

He does take a step of faith in overcoming his hamstring issues, but whenever he has been on the field over his first two seasons, he has been a proven touchdown scorer and target earner near the end zone.

All of this is what makes it tough when trying to find a true role for Dontayvion Wicks when this unit is at full strength despite his efficiency per target.

Wicks was only on the field for 46.0% of the team dropbacks in the red zone, including the playoffs.

He had just eight targets in the red zone and three in the end zone.

Can Tyreek Hill be Even Better in 2024?

If sorting things by points scored versus expectations, the bottom of the table above is the most interesting area.

The list of wideouts that could be due for a rebound is filled with assets that are either decorated performers over their careers or are being drafted highly this summer.

In the quarterback post, we covered that Tua Tagovailoa scored the most points below expectations last season.

That trickled right over to Tyreek Hill.

Hill had a monster campaign last year despite scoring the most points below expectations at the position in the red zone.

He was third in expected points but finished 16th in actual points scored in that area of the field.

Just 16.0% of Hill’s red zone opportunities resulted in a touchdown, the lowest rate of his career.

That rate was 27.3% in his first season with Miami, and his career rate entering last season was 28.8%.

41.7% of Hill’s end zone targets (5-of-12) went for a touchdown, his lowest conversion rate in a season since 2019.

Expecting Miami to have more balance in their split of passing touchdowns compared to rushing scores, paired with an expected rebound for Tua himself in the red zone based on his career rates, it is scary how there could still be meat on the bone for Hill to be even better in 2024.

New Life For Garrett Wilson and Drake London

We are leaning on two aging quarterbacks returning from Achilles injuries, but both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins provide a level of competency that is well above what these young wideouts have dealt with to open their careers.

Everyone is aware of how bad Garrett Wilson has had it in terms of offensive attachment to open his career.

2023 was another uphill battle as Wilson ended the season ranking 40th in wide receivers in red zone fantasy production.

Only six wideouts were below Wilson in points scored below expectations in that area of the field.

Over the past two seasons, Wilson has had 36 red zone targets, 8th among all wideouts.

His 32.1% team target share in the red zone is fourth in the league.

But 25% of Wilson’s red zone targets to open his career have been inaccurate throws.

No wide receiver in the league with as many targets has a higher rate.

Wilson has 21 end zone targets over the past two seasons and just four have resulted in touchdowns.

A staggering 38.1% of his end zone targets have been inaccurate throws.

The next closest rate of inaccurate end zone targets with as many overall targets as Wilson is 28.0%.

Rodgers will turn 41 this season and is coming off a significant injury, but the bar for improvement here is underground.

21.9% of London’s career red zone targets have been inaccurate, an area of the field where his skill set should thrive.

He has fewer end zone targets than Wilson through two seasons (15) but has had just as poor luck in receiving quality targets where they count the most.

37.5% of London’s end zone targets have been inaccurate throws.

Wilson is the only wide receiver with as many targets that has a higher rate.

Desmond Ridder ranked 32nd in inaccuracy rate (17.9%) over the past two seasons in the red zone and 30th in inaccurate throw rate in the end zone (29.6%).

Cousins is eighth in that department over the past two seasons (16.7%).

Buying More of a Chris Godwin Bounceback

The drumbeat for Chris Godwin has been sounding all offseason based on his expected movement back into the slot, but we should be stocking a bounce back in red zone performance, as well.

Even accounting for the loss of Tom Brady, he was well below expectations.

Godwin was 13th among all wide receivers in expected points in the red zone yet closed the season 46th in points scored.

Godwin converted just 1 of his 16 red zone targets for a touchdown last season, the lowest rate for any wide receiver with double-digit targets in the red zone.

His career rate in converting red zone targets for touchdowns was 28.2%.

Godwin had 10 targets in the end zone (the same number as Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, and Chris Olave), but just one of those resulted in a touchdown.

That was also the lowest rate for any wide receiver with double-digit targets in the end zone last season.

His career rate in converting end zone targets before last season was 40.5% (40.6% without Brady).

Is Mile-High Efficiency Coming to Pittsburgh?

Gamers have already priced in regression for Courtland Sutton in 2024 paired with an attachment to a rookie quarterback, so we will not linger too long here.

Sutton was second among all wide receivers in points scored over expectations in the red zone.

He was third in the league in red zone fantasy points despite ranking 20th in expected points.

47.1% of Sutton’s red zone targets (8-of-17) went for touchdowns, the highest rate of his career.

His previous career high was 25.0% as a rookie.

Sutton had eight red zone touchdowns last season after seven over his first five years in the league.

He converted 60.0% of his end zone targets after a 25.0% rate entering last season.

No matter what you think of Russell Wilson at this stage of his career and the player he has become, Wilson is still easily the best quarterback that Sutton played with.

This iteration of Wilson will also easily be the best quarterback that George Pickens has played with in his early career.

It is also easy to draw parallels with Pickens and Sutton in terms of physical archetype.

If Wilson gave Sutton those chances downfield and in the end zone, the hope is that we can draw something similar for Pickens, who has had next to no usage near the end zone so far in his career.

Pickens was 55th in expected points in the red zone last season and was even worse in results, ranking 72nd in points scored.

Kalif Raymond scored more red zone points than Pickens last year.

So far through two NFL seasons, Pickens has converted only 2-of-11 end zone targets for touchdowns.

The only players with more targets in the end zone and a lower conversion rate over that span are Chris Godwin and…Diontae Johnson.

Over the past two seasons, Kenny Pickett ranked 29th out of 33 quarterbacks in inaccurate throw rate into the end zone.

Last year, Pickett was dead last in that category while Wilson was 11th.