What We Can Learn: NFL Team Scoring Output Per Drive

Offenses scored points on 40.6% of their possessions that did not end in a kneel down. That was the highest rate since the 2020 season and the second-highest rate over a 15-year sample.
We have a 63-team sample of offenses scoring a touchdown on 30% or more of their drives. Only 11 of those 63 had a higher touchdown rate the following season.
Over the previous 10 years, 41 teams have failed to score on 30% of their drives. 37 of them scored at a higher rate the following season with an average increase of 10 touchdowns per team.

As we approach July and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.

The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.

[[["2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends"],["<a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/fantasy-football-draft-kit%5C/">Draft Kit Hub<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/nfl-offensive-analysis-adjustments-2025%5C/">League Trends<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/fantasy-football-quarterback-production-2025%5C/">Quarterback Trends<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/fantasy-football-running-back-production-2025%5C/">Running Back Trends<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/fantasy-football-wide-receiver-production-2025%5C/">Wide Receiver Trends<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/fantasy-football-tight-end-te-production-2025%5C/">Tight End Trends<\/a>"],["</a><a href="https://%5C/%5C/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com%5C/fantasy%5C/nfl-team-scoring-per-drive-2025%5C/">NFL Team Per Drive Trends<\/a>"],["NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming Soon)"],["NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon)"],["Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon)"],["Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon)"],["Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon)"],["Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon)"],["Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon)"]],[{"row":0,"col":0,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":1,"col":0,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":2,"col":0,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":3,"col":0,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":4,"col":0,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":5,"col":0,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":6,"col":0,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":7,"col":0,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":0,"prop":0,"jtcellstyle":{"font-weight":"bold"}},{"row":8,"col":0,"visualRow":8,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":9,"col":0,"visualRow":9,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":10,"col":0,"visualRow":10,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":11,"col":0,"visualRow":11,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":12,"col":0,"visualRow":12,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":13,"col":0,"visualRow":13,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":14,"col":0,"visualRow":14,"visualCol":0,"prop":0}],[],[]]</a>

2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends
Draft Kit Hub
League Trends
Quarterback Trends
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Wide Receiver Trends
Tight End Trends
NFL Team Per Drive Trends
NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming Soon)
NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon)
Touchdown Trends (Coming Soon)
Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon)
Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon)
Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon)
Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon)

Kicking things off, we dive into team performance per possession and potential regression notes to apply to the 2025 campaign.

Leaguewide Scoring & Touchdown Rates Per Drive Since 2010

Year	Drive/G	oTD/G	Score%	TD%
2024	10.2	2.43	40.58%	23.76%
2023	10.6	2.25	37.08%	21.26%
2022	10.4	2.28	37.91%	21.94%
2021	10.4	2.48	39.46%	23.94%
2020	10.4	2.74	41.71%	26.43%
2019	10.6	2.40	37.54%	22.79%
2018	10.8	2.53	37.93%	23.41%
2017	11.1	2.21	35.16%	19.92%
2016	11.0	2.42	37.01%	21.95%
2015	11.2	2.38	35.72%	21.19%
2014	11.2	2.33	35.43%	20.92%
2013	11.6	2.39	35.04%	20.53%
2012	11.3	2.29	34.87%	20.21%
2011	11.5	2.26	34.02%	19.73%
2010	11.4	2.29	33.62%	20.06%

*Drives excluding ones that ended in kneel downs

We explored this at the start of last week, but NFL offenses found answers in 2024, which led to a surge in production.

Offenses scored points on 40.6% of their possessions that did not end in a kneel down.

That was the highest rate since the 2020 season and the second-highest rate over the 15-year sample.

Offenses scored touchdowns on 23.8% of their possessions, which was significantly higher than the 2022 and 2023 rates, ultimately ranking as the third-highest rate.

Another interesting note is that offensive possessions per game have consistently trended down.

Last season, offenses averaged 10.2 possessions per game, the fewest we have seen.

I have a couple of hypotheses that impact that number.

The first is that turnovers are way down.

Last season, teams turned the ball over on 10.7% of their possessions, the lowest rate ever.

Fewer turnovers decrease the top down number of possessions.

The other is tied to improving efficiency.

One thing we sometimes overlook is the relationship between efficiency (or lack thereof) and volume.

If you are successful on your opportunities, you will have few opportunities, and vice versa.

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What To Expect in the 2025 NFL Season

Since the 2010 season, 70.9% of the teams that were below average in scoring rate per drive improved their rate in the following season.

Those teams averaged a 7.0% increase in scoring rate per drive the following season.

Those teams also averaged an increase in average touchdown rate per drive of 4.3% with an average increase of 9.5 offensive touchdowns per season.

Looking at the most recent NFL season, of the 16 teams that were in the back half of the league in scoring rate per drive in 2023, 13 improved that rate a year ago, well above the base rate.

It is, however, harder for a bottom-rung offense to completely flip the script.

Only 32.4% of the offenses that ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring rate per drive came back and ranked in the top 10 the following season.

On the other side of things, 64.3% of teams in the top half of the league in scoring rate per drive suffered a decline in scoring rate the following season.

The silver lining, though, is that even though we should expect everyone’s favorite phrase of “regression to the mean” for high-scoring offenses from one season to the next, we do not have to abandon ship.

Rarely do good offenses completely bottom out the following season, even with regression.

Only six times has the most efficient scoring offense per drive ranked No. 1 again the following season, but 53.2% of all top-10 scoring offenses have rolled over as a top-10 unit again in the following season.

Only 13.6% of the time did a team finish in the top 10 in scoring rate and then fall to the bottom 10 the following season.

So, if you combine what we have covered to this point, it is rarer for a good offense to completely bottom out compared to a bottom-end offense turning into a front-end one, even with improvement.

That said, we just lived a year where regression hit some front-end teams hard.

The Cowboys went from leading the league in scoring rate per drive in 2023 to 21st last season.

The 49ers went from second to 13th.

The Dolphins went from fourth to 18th.

On the other hand, we only had one team from 2023 that went from awful to great last year, with the Commanders improving from 28th in 2023 to third last season.

With some of those bulk trends noted, let's dive into per drive team production from the 2024 season, highlighting some takeaways we can apply heading into 2025.

2024 Team Per Drive Rates

wdt_ID	wdt_created_by	wdt_created_at	wdt_last_edited_by	wdt_last_edited_at	Team	Drive/G	Score%	TD%	oTD/Gm
1	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	ARI	9.5	46.3	25.3	2.4
2	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	ATL	9.5	41.4	24.1	2.3
3	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	BAL	10.1	49.4	36.6	3.7
4	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	BUF	9.5	53.1	38.3	3.6
5	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	CAR	10.5	34.8	22.5	2.4
6	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	CHI	10.3	30.9	18.9	1.9
7	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	CIN	10.1	46.2	31.6	3.2
8	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	CLE	11.5	23.0	13.8	1.6
9	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	DAL	10.8	37.7	15.8	1.7
10	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	DEN	10.5	40.8	23.5	2.5
11	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	DET	10.1	54.7	39.5	4.0
12	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	GB	10.3	47.4	29.1	3.0
13	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	HOU	10.8	38.6	19.0	2.1
14	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	IND	10.9	38.2	21.5	2.4
15	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	JAX	10.0	34.7	18.8	1.9
16	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	KC	9.4	45.6	25.6	2.4
17	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	LAC	10.1	45.3	22.7	2.3
18	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	LAR	9.6	40.5	22.7	2.2
19	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	LV	10.7	34.6	15.9	1.7
20	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	MIA	10.4	40.1	19.2	2.0
21	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	MIN	10.2	45.4	25.3	2.6
22	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	NE	10.2	31.6	16.7	1.7
23	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	NO	10.3	36.0	20.6	2.1
24	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	NYG	10.2	29.5	16.2	1.6
25	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	NYJ	9.9	35.1	23.2	2.3
26	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	PHI	9.8	48.8	31.9	3.1
27	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	PIT	10.6	41.1	18.9	2.0
28	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	SEA	10.2	37.0	22.0	2.2
29	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	SF	9.8	43.7	24.0	2.4
30	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	TB	10.2	50.3	32.9	3.4
31	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	TEN	11.1	30.7	17.5	1.9
32	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:41 PM	WAS	9.8	52.7	32.3	3.2

*Drives excluding ones that ended in kneel downs

Laying the groundwork to this point, let’s break things down for how we can apply last year’s results as a signal for 2025.

Detroit Lions 2025 Outlook

No team ran hotter per drive last season than Detroit.

The Lions scored on 54.7% of their possessions last season, the sixth-highest rate for a team in the 2000s and the highest rate for a team since 2019.

[[["Year","Team","Score%","N+","N+ TD"],["2019","Ravens","57.0%","-9.5%","-7"],["2007","Patriots","57.0%","-9.1%","-26"],["2018","Saints","56.9%","-6.7%","-11"],["2016","Falcons","55.8%","-12.2%","-24"],["2018","Chiefs","55.2%","-1.9%","-20"],["2024","Lions","54.7%","TBD","TBD"]],[{"row":0,"col":0,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":0,"col":1,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":0,"col":2,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":0,"col":3,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":0,"col":4,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":1,"col":0,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":1,"col":1,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":1,"col":2,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":1,"col":3,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":1,"col":4,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":2,"col":0,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":2,"col":1,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":2,"col":2,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":2,"col":3,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":2,"col":4,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":3,"col":0,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":3,"col":1,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":3,"col":2,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":3,"col":3,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":3,"col":4,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":4,"col":0,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":4,"col":1,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":4,"col":2,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":4,"col":3,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":4,"col":4,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":5,"col":0,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":5,"col":1,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":5,"col":2,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":5,"col":3,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":5,"col":4,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":6,"col":0,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":6,"col":1,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":6,"col":2,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":6,"col":3,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":6,"col":4,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":4,"prop":4}],[],[]]

Year	Team	Score%	N+	N+ TD
2019	Ravens	57.0%	-9.5%	-7
2007	Patriots	57.0%	-9.1%	-26
2018	Saints	56.9%	-6.7%	-11
2016	Falcons	55.8%	-12.2%	-24
2018	Chiefs	55.2%	-1.9%	-20
2024	Lions	54.7%	TBD	TBD

Looking at the five teams above them and how they played the following season, all of them scored at a lower rate the following season.

Four of the five teams dropped double-digit touchdowns, with three of those teams scoring at least 20 fewer touchdowns the following season.

The Lions were not only good at scoring per possession. They were immaculate at putting the ball into the end zone.

They scored a touchdown on 39.5% of their drives, the fourth-best rate of the 2000s.

[[["Year","Team","TD%","N+","N+ TD"],["2007","Patriots","43.7%","-17.6%","-26"],["2020","Packers","42.9%","-10.5%","-12"],["2018","Chiefs","40.5%","-9.8%","-20"],["2024","Lions","39.5%","TBD","TBD"]],[{"row":0,"col":0,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":0,"col":1,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":0,"col":2,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":0,"col":3,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":0,"col":4,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":1,"col":0,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":1,"col":1,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":1,"col":2,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":1,"col":3,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":1,"col":4,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":2,"col":0,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":2,"col":1,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":2,"col":2,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":2,"col":3,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":2,"col":4,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":3,"col":0,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":3,"col":1,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":3,"col":2,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":3,"col":3,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":3,"col":4,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":4,"col":0,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":4,"col":1,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":4,"col":2,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":4,"col":3,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":4,"col":4,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":4,"prop":4}],[],[]]

Year	Team	TD%	N+	N+ TD
2007	Patriots	43.7%	-17.6%	-26
2020	Packers	42.9%	-10.5%	-12
2018	Chiefs	40.5%	-9.8%	-20
2024	Lions	39.5%	TBD	TBD

Two of those three teams were in both tables, with the 2020 Packers joining that hyper-efficient group of teams.

All of those teams lost double-digit touchdowns the following season.

The Lions averaged 4.0 offensive touchdowns per game, the seventh team in the 2000s to reach that mark.

[[["Year","Team","oTD\/Gm","N+","N+ TD"],["2013","Broncos","4.5","3.4","-17"],["2007","Patriots","4.3","2.7","-26"],["2018","Chiefs","4.1","2.9","-20"],["2020","Packers","4.0","3.3","-12"],["2011","Packers","4.0","3.1","-15"],["2000","Rams","4.0","3.6","-7"],["2024","Lions","4.0","TBD","TBD"]],[{"row":0,"col":0,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":0,"col":1,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":0,"col":2,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":0,"col":3,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":0,"col":4,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":1,"col":0,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":1,"col":1,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":1,"col":2,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":1,"col":3,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":1,"col":4,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":2,"col":0,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":2,"col":1,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":2,"col":2,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":2,"col":3,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":2,"col":4,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":3,"col":0,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":3,"col":1,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":3,"col":2,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":3,"col":3,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":3,"col":4,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":4,"col":0,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":4,"col":1,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":4,"col":2,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":4,"col":3,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":4,"col":4,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":5,"col":0,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":5,"col":1,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":5,"col":2,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":5,"col":3,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":5,"col":4,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":6,"col":0,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":6,"col":1,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":6,"col":2,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":6,"col":3,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":6,"col":4,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":4,"prop":4},{"row":7,"col":0,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":7,"col":1,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":7,"col":2,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":2,"prop":2},{"row":7,"col":3,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":3,"prop":3},{"row":7,"col":4,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":4,"prop":4}],[],[]]

Year	Team	oTD/Gm	N+	N+ TD
2013	Broncos	4.5	3.4	-17
2007	Patriots	4.3	2.7	-26
2018	Chiefs	4.1	2.9	-20
2020	Packers	4.0	3.3	-12
2011	Packers	4.0	3.1	-15
2000	Rams	4.0	3.6	-7
2024	Lions	4.0	TBD	TBD

This list is a who’s who in terms of the best offenses we have seen this millennium.

All of these teams still scored a lot of touchdowns in the context of the league the following season, but all shed a significant number of touchdowns.

We do not have to hide from drafting Detroit players in 2025, but they are the top regression candidates from a year ago.

That can have a trickle-down effect on players who do not currently possess the front-end capital that Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown have.

Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery, and Sam LaPorta are players who were a part of that touchdown wave last season.

45-50% Scoring Club

Last season saw four teams score on at least 50% of their possessions, the most in a season since five teams achieved this feat in the COVID-affected 2020 campaign.

There was only one team in 2023.

Zero in 2022, and two in 2021.

Joining the Lions were the Bills (53.1%), Commanders (52.7%), and Buccaneers (50.3%).

Of the 21 previous teams to score on 50% or more of their possessions, only one (the 2020-2021 Chiefs) scored at a higher rate the following season.

The other 20 teams saw an average scoring decrease of 8.3% the following season.

Those teams lost an average of 14 touchdowns the following season.

What is even more of a testament to offensive efficiency bouncing back last season is that we had another eight teams score on 45% or more of their possessions.

Combined with the first four teams, that is over a third of the league, and the most in a single season ever.

For added context, only four teams scored on 45% or more of their possessions in 2023.

In 2022, that number was five teams.

Even in the scoring spike seasons of 2020 and 2021, there were 11 teams to hit that arbitrary threshold.

Before last year, we had a 76-team sample hitting that mark.

Only 10 of those 76 teams increased their scoring rate per drive in the following season.

30% Touchdown Club

Outside of the Lions, we had another six teams reach the end zone on at least 30% of their possessions, with the Bills (38.3%) and Ravens (36.6%) hitting paydirt on over a third of their drives.

We have a 63-team sample of offenses scoring a touchdown on 30% or more of their drives.

Only 11 of those 63 had a higher touchdown rate the following season.

49 of those teams scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 13 touchdowns.

Of the 21 teams to score a touchdown on at least one-third of their drives, only two scored more touchdowns the following season, with the other teams losing on average 15 touchdowns.

Less Than 20% Touchdown Club

Working in the opposite direction and starting from the bottom up, we had 11 teams score a touchdown on fewer than 20% of their possessions.

This is the area where a few good teams in 2023, such as the Dolphins (19.2%), Texans (19%), and Cowboys (15.8%), fell.

Over the previous decade, we have had 120 teams in that bucket.

74.2% of those teams raised their touchdown rate in the following season with an average increase of 10 touchdowns per team.

There were 16 teams in this area last season, based on the results of 2023.

Twelve of those teams scored more touchdowns than they did in 2023, with the Jets (+21) and Panthers (+20) as significant spikes.

30% Scoring Club

Only two teams failed to score on at least 30% of their possessions last season: the Giants (29.5%) and Browns (23%).

The Titans (30.7%), Bears (30.9%), and Patriots (31.6%) were the others who failed to score at least one-third of their possessions.

Over the previous 10 years, 41 other teams have failed to score on 30% of their drives.

37 of them scored at a higher rate the following season with an average increase of 10 touchdowns per team.

Of the 91 teams to score on fewer than one-third of their drives, 78% increased that rate the following season, with an average increase of 7.0 touchdowns per team.

NFL Scoring Distribution

Bringing this one home, the last section will not only examine the team scoring rate per drive but also how often those teams converted those scores into touchdowns, and who was solely kicking field goals when they did score points.

Percentage of Scoring Plays Being Touchdowns Since 2010

[[["Year","TD%"],["2024","58.6%"],["2023","57.3%"],["2022","57.9%"],["2021","60.7%"],["2020","63.3%"],["2019","60.7%"],["2018","61.7%"],["2017","56.7%"],["2016","59.3%"],["2015","59.3%"],["2014","59.0%"],["2013","58.6%"],["2012","57.9%"],["2011","57.9%"],["2010","59.7%"]],[{"row":0,"col":0,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":0,"col":1,"visualRow":0,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":1,"col":0,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":1,"col":1,"visualRow":1,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":2,"col":0,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":2,"col":1,"visualRow":2,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":3,"col":0,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":3,"col":1,"visualRow":3,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":4,"col":0,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":4,"col":1,"visualRow":4,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":5,"col":0,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":5,"col":1,"visualRow":5,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":6,"col":0,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":6,"col":1,"visualRow":6,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":7,"col":0,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":7,"col":1,"visualRow":7,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":8,"col":0,"visualRow":8,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":8,"col":1,"visualRow":8,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":9,"col":0,"visualRow":9,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":9,"col":1,"visualRow":9,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":10,"col":0,"visualRow":10,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":10,"col":1,"visualRow":10,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":11,"col":0,"visualRow":11,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":11,"col":1,"visualRow":11,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":12,"col":0,"visualRow":12,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":12,"col":1,"visualRow":12,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":13,"col":0,"visualRow":13,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":13,"col":1,"visualRow":13,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":14,"col":0,"visualRow":14,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":14,"col":1,"visualRow":14,"visualCol":1,"prop":1},{"row":15,"col":0,"visualRow":15,"visualCol":0,"prop":0},{"row":15,"col":1,"visualRow":15,"visualCol":1,"prop":1}],[],[]]

Year	TD%
2024	58.6%
2023	57.3%
2022	57.9%
2021	60.7%
2020	63.3%
2019	60.7%
2018	61.7%
2017	56.7%
2016	59.3%
2015	59.3%
2014	59.0%
2013	58.6%
2012	57.9%
2011	57.9%
2010	59.7%

Last season, 58.6% of the scoring plays were touchdowns.

That rate was up from the previous two seasons, but still lower than the 60% or higher levels reached during the 2018 through 2021 seasons.

2024 Team Dispersal of Scoring Plays

wdt_ID	wdt_created_by	wdt_created_at	wdt_last_edited_by	wdt_last_edited_at	Team	Score%	TD%	FG%
1	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	ARI	46.3	54.7	45.3
2	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	ATL	41.4	58.2	41.8
3	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	BAL	49.4	74.1	25.9
4	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	BUF	53.1	72.1	27.9
5	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	CAR	34.8	64.5	35.5
6	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	CHI	30.9	61.1	38.9
7	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	CIN	46.2	68.4	31.6
8	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	CLE	23.0	60.0	40.0
9	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	DAL	37.7	42.0	58.0
10	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	DEN	40.8	57.5	42.5
11	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	DET	54.7	72.3	27.7
12	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	GB	47.4	61.4	38.6
13	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	HOU	38.6	49.3	50.7
14	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	IND	38.2	56.3	43.7
15	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	JAX	34.7	54.2	45.8
16	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	KC	45.6	56.2	43.8
17	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	LAC	45.3	50.0	50.0
18	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	LAR	40.5	56.1	43.9
19	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	LV	34.6	46.0	54.0
20	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	MIA	40.1	47.9	52.1
21	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	MIN	45.4	55.7	44.3
22	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	NE	31.6	52.7	47.3
23	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	NO	36.0	57.1	42.9
24	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	NYG	29.5	54.9	45.1
25	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	NYJ	35.1	66.1	33.9
26	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	PHI	48.8	65.4	34.6
27	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	PIT	41.1	45.9	54.1
28	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	SEA	37.0	59.4	40.6
29	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	SF	43.7	54.8	45.2
30	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	TB	50.3	65.5	34.5
31	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	TEN	30.7	56.9	43.1
32	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	raymondsummerlin@gmail.com	07/22/2025 01:57 PM	WAS	52.7	61.4	38.6

Last season, three teams in the Ravens (74.1%), Lions (72.3%), and Bills (72.1%) had over 70% of their scoring plays come via touchdowns.

There have been 63 other teams in the 2000s who have had over 70% of their scoring plays come via touchdowns.

47 (74.6%) scored fewer touchdowns the following season with an average loss of 12.9 touchdowns.

NFL Teams With Expected Positive Touchdown Regression in 2025

The Texans, Dolphins, Raiders, Steelers, and Cowboys all kicked more field goals than offensive touchdowns.

The Chargers were dead even at a 50/50 rate.

Since 2010, 66 other teams have had 50% or more of their scoring plays come via field goals.

Of those teams, 53 of them (80.3%) scored more touchdowns the following season, with an average increase among those teams of 11.1 touchdowns per season.

Of the six teams in this department heading into last season, five raised their touchdown totals.

NFL Teams Expected to Score Less in 2025:

Lions
Bills
Ravens
Commanders
Buccaneers

Again, you don’t have to run away from all of the players attached to these teams, but wrapping this up, these are the top teams we should expect to have a decrease in scoring efficiency and touchdown output.

NFL Teams Expected to Score More in 2025:

Dolphins
Cowboys
Texans
Steelers
Raiders
Patriots
Bears
Titans
Giants
Browns

On the other hand, this does not mean that all players associated with these teams will be valuable.

The teams we should expect to have a lower dependency on touchdowns and a decreased touchdown total are the Ravens, Lions, and Bills.

Teams that we should expect to have a lower dependency on field goals and raise their touchdown totals are the Chargers, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, and Cowboys.

If you combine all the areas we have covered, the Dolphins, Cowboys, Texans, and Steelers have the most overlap in each department, drawing interest as teams that could have more upside in 2025.