- The Packers are the last remaining team undefeated against the point spread.
- Green Bay has scored on a league-high 71.4% of their drives and a touchdown on a league-high 48.6%.
- Tampa Bay has allowed opponents to score on 32.7% of drives (fourth) and a touchdown on 20% (fifth).
- The Packers lead the league with 5.0 red zone opportunities per game.
- Green Bay leads the league in yards per play (6.8).
- Tampa Bay is allowing 4.9 yards per play defensively (third).
- The Packers are allowing just 0.8 sacks plus turnovers per game offensively, the fewest in the league.
- The Green Bay backfield is averaging 209.8 yards from scrimmage per game, the most in the league.
- Tampa Bay has allowed just 37 total rushing yards on runs of 10 or more yards, the fewest in the league. The next closest team (Cleveland) has allowed 136.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Tom Brady (TRUST): Running into his toughest matchup of the season last week, Brady has season lows in completion rate (61%) and yards per attempt (6.2 Y/A) against the Bears. This week, things get lighter in what could be a potential shootout. The Packers are 19th in passing points allowed per game (17.3), 26th in yards per attempt (8.1 Y/A), and 29th in completion rate (72.2%). The Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns to every passer except for Matt Ryan.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has turned back the clock, trailing only Russell Wilson in passing points per attempt (.723) with 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has done that without Davante Adams in two full games and in the latest game, was missing both Adams and Allen Lazard. The Buccaneers are eighth in passing points allowed (13.8 per game), but are 14th in yards per attempt (7.4 Y/A) and 28th in completion rate (70.9%). They also have yet to face a top-12 scorer on the season. This is the best defense Rodgers has faced, but he is dialed in and getting Adams back this week. Continue to use him as a QB1 option.
Aaron Jones: So much for regression. Jones has at least 18 touches in all four games this season while reaching the end zone in every game this season. Jones is in a similar spot to the one he was in in Week 3, when he had 18 touches for 86 yards against the Saints with a touchdown. The Buccaneers are fifth in rushing points allowed per game (9.1), but they are 27th in receiving points allowed per game to backfields (14.5). Jones is fourth among all backs in receiving points per game (10.1). We also have to see how the loss of Vita Vea impacts things. Even if Jones runs into a tough rushing matchup and slightly discounted, he is still a RB1 option.
Ronald Jones: With the backfield all to himself the past two weeks, Jones has posted his two highest-scoring games of the season, handling 26 touches for 128 yards and 20 touches for 125 yards. With Leonard Fournette sidelined, Jones has accounted for 98% of the Tampa Bay rushing yardage the past two games. In the three games Fournette has played, Jones has averaged 14.3 touches for 60.7 yards with scoring weeks as the RB32, RB32, and RB30. The Packers are once again struggling to care about stopping opposing backfields, allowing 163.0 yards from scrimmage per game to backs (26th). Jones is still the favorite to lead the Bucs backfield, but should concede a few touches to Fournette. Consider Jones an RB2 option in a strong matchup at home.
Mike Evans: Evans has scored in every game this season. 42.3% of Evans’s fantasy output is from touchdowns alone, the highest rate of any wide receiver in the top-100 in PPR scoring. A lot for Evans also hinges on the availability of Chris Godwin, who has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring injury. With Godwin active, Evans has had games of 1-2-1 on four targets and 2-2-2 on four targets. In his three games with Godwin inactive, Evans has commanded 10, eight, and nine targets. He also will command the attention of Jaire Alexander here.
Alexander currently ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per coverage snap (.66) on the year, allowing 12 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Evans always carries touchdown potential, but if Godwin returns he could be in for another target week that is dependent on finding the end zone again. Evans is a touchdown-dependent WR1 or WR2 depending on Godwin’s availability.
Davante Adams: After sitting out the past two games and getting a bye, Adams is on track to return to the lineup. Tampa Bay has been solid versus opposing lead wideouts, ranking 13th in points allowed per game (13.3), limiting Michael Thomas (3-17-0), Keenan Allen (8-62-0), and Allen Robinson (10-90-0), while also allowing 9-109-0 to Robby Anderson and 5-55-0 to Jerry Jeudy. Adams is walking right back into a battered Green Bay wide receiver room and should immediately be leaned on for high volume. Adams is a WR1 option in his return.
Chris Godwin: Godwin has only appeared in two games, finishing as the WR28 (6-79-0) and WR24 (5-64-1). We will monitor his availability for Week 6, but if Godwin is available to return, he will find himself in WR2 status against a Green Bay defense that has allowed just two wideouts to reach 60 yards, but have faced teams in Atlanta, Detroit, and New Orleans who were missing top options.
Scotty Miller: Miller was not even targeted last week on 45 snaps. Prior to Week 5, Miller had double-digit PPR points in three of his four games this season, having 73-83 yards in three games. He has yet to have more than seven targets in a game. If Godwin is active, Miller is a WR5 option.
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan has found the end zone five times over his past three games played, receiving 10% (2-25-1), 15.6% (5-50-1), and 18.2% (6-98-3) of the team targets in those games. Prior to the bye, Tonyan ran a pass route on a season-high 71.4% of the team dropbacks, but Marcedes Lewis was also inactive that week while Adams was still sidelined. That said, the Packers still have a wide-open target opportunity for anyone outside of Adams and Jones.
Tonyan will have to show us more stability on a target level, but his scoring potential has him in play regardless at a tight end position that has limited options to use. We might be touchdown chasing as Tampa Bay has solid games against Jared Cook (5-80-0), Noah Fant (5-46-0), and Jimmy Graham (3-33-1) as the tangible tight ends they have faced. Consider Tonyan a high TE2 option as a cheap attachment to Rodgers in hopes of seeing his target opportunity offer some stability.
Buccaneers TEs: With O.J. Howard out for the season, Cameron Brate played a season-high 33 snaps last Thursday, catching 5-of-6 targets for 44 yards. Rob Gronkowski still held a snap edge (80%) while also receiving six targets (3-52-0). The Packers have allowed opposing tight ends to catch 15-of-18 targets for 190 yards and zero touchdowns with no TE1 scoring weeks to Jared Cook (2-17-0), T.J. Hockenson (4-62-0), and Hayden Hurst (4-51-0). Both Gronk and Brate are TE2 options you hope to get a touchdown from.
More Week 6 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: