The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Packers vs. Bucs Week 4 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.0 | Spread | 4.0 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 17.75 | ||
| 18.7 | 22 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 19 |
| 30.3 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 26.3 | 23 |
| 60.0 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 20 |
| 66.3 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.7 | 9 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 28 |
| 5.1 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 9 |
| 26.7% | 32 | Rush% | 37.1% | 27 |
| 73.3% | 1 | Pass% | 62.9% | 6 |
| 51.3% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 42.2% | 13 |
| 48.7% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 57.8% | 20 |
- Tampa Bay is 0-12 against the spread over their past 12 games going back to last season.
- Green Bay is 0-8 against the spread over their past 8 games going back to last season.
- The Buccaneers are last in the NFL in total offensive EPA (-38.44).
- Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high 30 points off turnovers.
- The Packers are last in the NFL in rushing EPA on offense (-21.95).
- The Packers have the most penalties in the league (32).
- Green Bay has a -37 point differential in the second half (outscored 57 to 20), the worst margin in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Packers vs. Bucs Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Jordan Love
It has been a nightmare start for the Green Bay offense.
Love has completed 52.4% of his passes, ahead of only Jameis Winston (51%).
He is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt (22nd) but has averaged only 5.0 Y/A and 5.9 Y/A over the past two weeks.
The Packers can't run the football (17 yards in Week 3 from their backfield), and the offensive line is in turmoil.
Love has been pressured on 44.7% of his dropbacks (30th), and the offensive line is credited with 86.8% of those pressures (5th highest).
Green Bay has three linemen (Jacob Monk, Jordan Morgan, and Jager Burton) who have already allowed double-digit pressures in just three games.
Love has thrown the ball an average of 2.45 seconds after the snap, the third-highest in the league, too.
When Love has been pressured, he has completed 36% (18 of 50) of his passes for 6.0 Y/A with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
He has been sacked on only 13.8% of his pressures, which is 10th best.
The Packers are doing what they can to throw enough things at the wall and see what sticks.
After Thursday night, they have added Laken Tomlinson to the 53-man roster and signed Mekhi Becton and Cordell Volson to the practice squad.
They also signed Kevin Zeitler this week.
Aaron Banks could return this week, but we will have to follow his status.
On the few occasions Love has thrown from a clean pocket, he has completed only 63.5% of his passes (30th) but is averaging 7.4 Y/A (18th) with an 8.1% touchdown rate (9th).
Because the Packers cannot run the ball, they have thrown the ball 8% over expectations, third in the league.
All of this has been a disaster for real football.
Love has not played well, but that is not the lead.
Who would be playing well in this environment?
This isn't a stable situation to produce a consistent, functional offense.
But Love has been okay for fantasy purposes due to the crazy pass volume.
He has multiple passing touchdowns in each game, with weeks of 19.5, 13.8, and 18.5 points.
That is good enough to be handled as a volume-based QB2.
This situation is not far from what we saw with Arizona at the end of last season.
They were down multiple running backs and linemen and had a ragged defense.
The Bucs have had their own defensive issues, but they played much better last weekend.
Tampa Bay allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempt and a 51.7% completion rate to Kyler Murray.
You know the Bucs will blitz, so this offensive line will be tested again.
The Bucs are blitzing 43.4% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league.
However, they have gotten pressure on only 32.6% of their blitzes, which is 28th.
Jalon Daniels
Daniels will make his NFL debut on Sunday with Baker Mayfield sidelined with a dislocated thumb.
The undrafted rookie spent six years at Kansas, playing in 49 games.
His career yards-per-pass-attempt average (7.8) ranks in the 40th percentile among all prospects since 2000.
His career TD-to-INT rate (2.2 to 1) is in the 29th percentile, and his career 61.5% completion rate is in the 37th percentile.
Daniels averaged a class-low 4.8 yards per pass attempt under pressure and a class-high 12.9% interception rate in the red zone in 2025.
This preseason, Daniels completed 61.4% of his passes (27 of 44) for 239 yards (5.4 Y/A) with a touchdown.
Daniels is a back-end QB2 option.
If there is one thing he can do, however, it is run.
He rushed for 1,445 yards and 23 touchdowns in college, posting a 75th percentile career rushing score in my prospect model.
This preseason, Daniels scrambled on 11.3% of his dropbacks, rushing 14 times for 37 yards and a touchdown.
Green Bay looked awful Thursday night, but they weren't that bad defensively in the first two weeks.
In the opening two weeks against Carson Wentz and Geno Smith, they had allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt (6th) on a 64.6% completion rate (15th).
They had 7 sacks in the first two games.
Then they got diced on Thursday night, allowing Michael Penix to complete 72% of his passes for 10.2 Y/A and getting him to the ground zero times.
Packers vs. Bucs Fantasy Running Back Preview
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LEARN ABOUT FANTASYMore Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 4 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns | Thursday Night Football |
| Colts vs. Commanders | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Panthers | Sunday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Saints | Monday Night Football |