|Green Bay||Rank||@||New Orleans||Rank|
|40.2%||15||Opp. Rush %||43.3%||17|
|59.8%||18||Opp. Pass %||56.7%||16|
- The Saints have won five consecutive (4-1 ATS) primetime games at home.
- The Packers are just the eighth team ever to open the season with back-to-back 40-point games Weeks 1-2 and the first since the 2013 Broncos.
- The Packers lead the league in yards per play (7.1 yards) through two weeks.
- Aaron Jones had a carry or target on 74.3% of his snaps in Week 2, the highest rate of all backs with 20 or more snaps played in any game through two weeks.
- New Orleans wide receivers have combined for 17 receptions (30th), for 180 yards (31st) on 27 targets (30th).
Aaron Rodgers: After a QB2 overall scoring week to open the season, Rodgers recoiled a bit, scoring 19.2 points (QB15). With Davante Adams playing just 52% of the snaps and running just 21 pass routes, Rodgers had his completion rate fall from 72.7% in Week 1 down to 60% in Week 2, but his yards per pass attempt stayed at 8.0 Y/A after 8.3 Y/A in Week 1.
The biggest difference was his volume dropping from 44 attempts down to 30 with the running game doing whatever they wanted against the Lions. If Adams is unable to play, Rodgers was a top-12 scorer in three of the four games Adams missed a year ago, averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt. The Saints have allowed 20 fantasy points to both Tom Brady (20.5) and Derek Carr (21.6) to start the season. I am looking at Rodgers as a fringe-QB1 option without Adams entering Sunday night.
Drew Brees: Brees has registered as the QB23 (14.4 points) and the QB22 (14.5 points) to start the season. In his first game without Michael Thomas, Brees still passed for 312 yards and 8.2 Y/A, well above his 160 yards and 5.3 Y/A from Week 1. But his style of play did not inspire a lot of confidence as the crux of the Saints passing game revolved around yards after the catch from Alvin Kamara. Two weeks in, Brees’s average depth of target has been 5.2 yards (30th) and 5.3 yards (31st). The Packers have allowed 0.59 passing points per pass attempt through two weeks (28th) to keep the lights on for Brees repeating his yardage and Y/A from Week 2, but Brees is more of a high-QB2 option than a locked-in QB1 option entering Week 3.
Aaron Jones: Touchdown regression will have to wait. Jones has already scored on 9.5% of his touches through two weeks, a rate that was 6.7% in 2019. Jones now has seven games of multiple touchdowns since the start of last season, trailing only Christian McCaffrey (eight) with a league-leading three games of three or more touchdowns over that span.
The Saints are sixth in yards per carry allowed to backfields (3.41 YPC) and still have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since 2017 despite allowing 113 yards on 32 carries to Las Vegas on Monday. Jones has had 14 targets to start the season and if Adams is unable to play, that opens the door for more usage in the passing game.
In the four games that Adams missed a year ago, Jones was the Packers leading receiver while averaging 5.5 receptions on 6.8 targets per game (19.7%) while averaging 17.0 receiving points per game. Jones is an RB1 option in this fantasy climate that has lost some top talent.
Alvin Kamara (TRUST): Touchdown regression has found Kamara in a good way. In 2019, Kamara scored on a career-low 2.4% of his touches after marks of 6.5% in each of his first two seasons in the league. He had just seven carries inside of the 5-yard line. Through two weeks, Kamara has already scored on 10.3% of his touches, reaching the end zone four times with four carries from inside of the five.
The other big turnaround to start has been a recoil in Kamara’s receiving efficiency. After his yards per catch declined every year of his career, down to a low mark of 6.6 yards per catch a year ago, Kamara has averaged over 10.0 yards per catch in each of the first two games this season. Healthy and leaned on to carry the passing game, Kamara is the best combo back remaining on the board in Week 3.
Davante Adams: Adams left Week 2 at multiple points before being held out with the game already in check. A hamstring injury is all that could slow Adams down after he had double-digit targets in 11 of his previous 12 games played with just two games with fewer than 18.8 PPR points over that span. This has seemingly been the year of the wide receiver hamstring injury, and the Packers may not push Adams this early in the season. **Adams has not practiced through Friday with Matt LaFleur declaring Adams “probably doubtful”. If you do not have another pivot on SNF or MNF, then Adams is best left on benches.
Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Despite Lazard playing more snaps and running more routes than Valdes-Scantling in each of the first two games, Valdes-Scantling has out-targeted Lazard in each with games of 4-96-1 and 3-64-0 compared to Lazard’s 4-63-1 and 3-45-0. Valdes-Scantling has been receiving high-leverage targets with an average depth of target of 17.7 yards, which is fifth among all wideouts with five or more targets. When Adams was absent for four games last season, the Packers leading receiver was Aaron Jones with Valdes -Scantling banged up himself and Green Bay still figuring out what they had in Lazard. With Adams trending towards being inactive, both Lazard and Valdes-Scantling get bumped up as WR4/FLEX options while Malik Taylor took the snaps behind those two last week when Adams was in and out of the game. Valdes-Scantling has upside based on the types of targets he is getting, but Lazard has run 63% of his routes from the slot to open the season, giving him the best individual matchup as Valdes -Scantling and Taylor run the crux of their routes against Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore.
Tre’Quan Smith: In the first game without Michael Thomas, Smith was the player who benefitted the most, catching 5-of-7 targets for 86 yards with a wide receiver-high 9.6 aDOT. Those seven targets were the second-most Smith ever had in a game and his most in a game since 2018. Smith will retain WR3/FLEX status as long as Thomas is sidelined.
Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders has posted games of 3-15-1 (five targets) and 1-18-0 (three targets) to begin his Saints tenure. The 33-year-old wideout has now been held to 61 or fewer yards in 16 of his past 18 games played with fewer than 40 yards in 13 of those games. Sanders should improve on his three targets from Week 2, but is only a WR5 option in lineups and a single-game DFS dart.
Jared Cook: Cook managed to secure just 2-of-5 targets for 13 yards on Monday night, but did prevent a complete dud with a touchdown grab. Since joining the Saints a year ago, only Mark Andrews has more end zone targets (15) than Cook’s 12. The Packers have allowed 7-101-0 on seven targets to opposing tight ends to start the season and a league-high 14.4 yards per target to the position. Cook is a boom-or-bust TE1 option with added upside with Thomas sidelined as the primary vertical threat for the Saints.
More Week 3 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: