Jaguars vs. Panthers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Jaguars and Panthers.

Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence (TRUST): Jacksonville hopes to turn things around and spark Lawrence under a new regime led by Liam Coen as head coach.

After completing 66.3% of his passes in 2022 and 65.6% in 2023, Lawrence completed just 60.6% of his throws last season.

His 41.8% success rate was his worst as a quarterback through four seasons.

His success rate and completion percentage suffered partially because he pushed the ball more downfield than ever in his early career.

He averaged a career-high 9.4 air yards per attempt, second only to Anthony Richardson among all players who qualified for passer rating.

Lawrence attempted a career-high 15.1% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, which was fourth in the league.

This is where Coen can directly impact Lawrence in a way that he did with Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield’s average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.

47.2% of his throws were within 2.5 seconds of the snap, while his 7.0 air yards per throw were 28th.

The short and quick area passing game is going to rise for Lawrence under Coen.

We saw evidence of this during the preseason.

Lawrence only averaged 5.6 air yards per attempt.

We won’t go wild with a limited preseason sample, but Lawrence was sharp in the exhibition period and looked comfortable in the early stages of this offense.

He connected 14 of 17 passes for 119 yards (7.0 Y/A) with a touchdown and was not sacked.

This game environment could be one of the better shootout potential games of Week 1.

Both teams have made changes defensively in terms of personnel, but these were two of the defensive units that had a lot of work to do coming off historically awful 2024 seasons.

Carolina was dead last in the NFL in pressure rate (25.4%) last season and was taken advantage of through the air.

The Panthers allowed passers to complete 67.9% of their passes (29th) for 7.6 yards per attempt (28th) and a league-worst 6.6% touchdown rate.

They allowed 16.7 passing points per game, 31st in the league.

They did add bodies up front on the interior, but the only change on the back end was adding safety Tre’von Moehrig from the Raiders.

The Panthers retained defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero this offseason.

Under Evero, Carolina played man coverage at a rate of only 19.5% (26th) and ran Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the league (48.3%).

Even for his struggles last year, Lawrence was good against Cover 3, completing 73.4% of his passes (7th) for 9.2 Y/A (6th).

Coen also comes with familiarity against Evero’s scheme, since he faced them twice a year ago, scoring 48 and 26 points against them.

Bryce Young: The Panthers hired Dave Canales last offseason due to his involvement in the resurgence of Geno Smith‘s and Baker Mayfield’s careers.

Hoping to max out the same type of development for Young following a disastrous rookie campaign, things got off to a rocky start.

Young was benched after two games into the 2024 season, and it appeared as if the No. 1 overall pick was heading towards being sunk cost.

Young regained the starting job in Week 8 and gave Carolina some promise that there is still something Canales can mold moving forward.

Over the final 10 weeks of the season, Young threw 15 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

He threw multiple touchdowns in each of the season's final three games.

His big-time throw rate (7.7%) per Pro Football Focus was tops in the NFL.

There is still considerable room for growth.

Over that span, Young was 18th in EPA per dropback (0.07), 27th in success rate (40.7%), 27th in completion rate (61.8%), and 28th in yards per pass attempt (6.6).

His 13.5% inaccurate throw rate was 29th over that period.

After taking over in Week 8, he was QB17 points per game but notched two top-three scoring weeks over his final three outings.

Young still has a lot to prove, but there is at least a spark surrounding how the year closed compared to the dismal trajectory things appeared to be heading toward.

Young averaged 6.4 rushing points per game over his final eight games after 1.7 prior.

His scrambling rate was fourth in the NFL over that span (8.4%), but he ran hot in touchdowns on the ground.

That rushing output may not remain static, but he has it in his pocket to sprinkle in some rushing production.

Jacksonville was 24th in rushing yardage allowed per game (24.5 yards) to quarterbacks a year ago.

There is also added weaponry with the selection of Tetairoa McMillan to boost Young’s upside.

The Jaguars were a prime target for us from a streaming perspective last year.

They were 31st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.500), ahead of only the Panthers.

They ranked dead last in the league in passing points allowed per game (17.1).

Jacksonville allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt (31st) and a 5.0% touchdown rate (22nd).

The Jaguars have brought in Anthony Campanile as the new defensive coordinator, his first time calling defense in the NFL.

Campanile was the linebackers coach in Green Bay last season, following a stint in the same position with Miami from 2020 to 2023.

The additions to Jacksonville's secondary this offseason, aimed at improving the team, include Jourdan Lewis and Travis Hunter (who played eight defensive snaps in the preseason) at cornerback with Eric Murray at safety.

Lewis was 83rd in rating allowed when targeted last season in Dallas (99.4), while Murray ranked 55th among qualifying safeties with Houston (103.9).

I was set to push Young up as a “Trust” target, but the trade of Adam Thielen and injury to Jalen Coker are a wrinkle in the receiving game behind McMillan.

We also have left tackle Ikem Ekwonu having an appendectomy right before the opening week, which has his status in question for the opener.

Pairing all of those components together casts a cloud on an otherwise strong matchup.

Young is a matchup-based streamer in 1QB leagues and a strong 2QB option.

Running Back

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